Donnerstag, 27. Februar 2014

Backtesting: Europa League Round of Last 32

Just forecasting the future is only half of the fun. The real excitement comes with backtesting which of the predictions turned out to be true or false. Let's check our predictions on the Europa League round of last 32.

Anzhi Makhachkala 95.5  - KRC Genk 102.4
Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk 112.2  - Tottenham Hotspur 115.4
Juventus 122.1  - Trabzonspor 106.4
Chernomorets Odessa 98.9  - Olympique Lyon 103.1
Esbjerg fB 96.3  - ACF Fiorentina 105.1
Dinamo Kiev 118.7  - Valencia CF 104.3
PAOK Saloniki 104.2  - SL Benfica 115.5
Slovan Liberec 99.3  - AZ Alkmaar 102.5
Real Betis 93.3  - Rubin Kazan 106.7
Swansea City 101.5  - SSC Napoli 115.1
NK Maribor 104.6  - Sevilla FC 107.7
Viktoria Plzen 109.1  - Shakhtar Donetsk 118.3
Lazio Roma 102.8  - PFC Ludogorets Razgrad 112.7
AFC Ajax 114.1  - RB Salzburg 122.0
Maccabi Tel Aviv #NV  - FC Basel 111.0 n.a.
FC Porto 122.1  - Eintracht Frankfurt 106.8

Only four out of 15 ties saw the favorite being eliminated. The biggest surprises were Valencia defeating Kiev and Real Betis beating Rubin Kazan. And no, Ajax's defeat by Salzburg was no surprise and so wasn't the elimination of Lazio Roma by PFC Ludogorets Razgrad. The winner had, on average, 3.4 more Goalimpact than the loser, indicating the discriminatory power of the algorithm.

All title contenders, Juventus, Porto and Salzburg, are still in the competition. The two top runners up, Kiev and Donetsk, were eliminated. Now The Spurs, SL Benfica and SSC Napoli are the strongest teams after the favorite three.

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