Young Player Challenge - May 2016 Update

The season is about to finish and most teams know already in which league they will play next season and if they qualified for Europe. Therefore it is time to execute planned transfers and quickly find substitutes for players that were sold unplanned.

Part of the scouting and recruiting should be young players, because among those there are many targets that have a very attractive cost-benefit ratio. Those attractive targets are hard to identify within the mass of youth players, though.

Last year, we at Goalimpact have started a Young Player Challenge to identify those talents and track their success. We commercially distribute names of attractive targets to clubs. Therefore, they will be anonymous here in the blog, if their value on the website Transfermarkt.de is listed below EUR 2.5 million. Those players we define as "unknown to wider public". Once the value raises above the threshold value we will de-anonymize the player to allow you to check our work.

We also track the performance of a virtual investment portfolio in all unknown players within the top 25 players of the given date of scouting. These are the results so far.

Cohort Investment Up Down Profit Rate of Return
Apr 15 6.700.000 € 69% 25% 9.675.000 € 144,4%
Jul 15 700.000 € 75% 0% 1.250.000 € 178,6%
Sep 15 1.250.000 € 75% 0% 2.250.000 € 180,0%
Jan 16 3.500.000 € 60% 0% 2.350.000 € 67,1%

All investments from last year more than doubled their value. About 70% of the players in each cohort already increased their value.

Only in the group of player added in April 2015 some reduced their market value. From this group some players turned 20 already and were sold from the virtual portfolio for the Transfermarkt price at that time. One player newly got sold and also de-anonymized because the value now is above EUR 2.5 million. In fact, it now is already EUR 8.0 million. Anonymous Talent 9 was Andreas Christensen from Chelsea FC, currently at loan at Borussia Mönchengladbach. When we him listed as top talent in April 2014, his value was given with 750.000€. We would have advised Gladbach to buy the player instead of loaning him. Rumor has it that they now offer 15.000.000 Euros to Chelsea to buy him.

And here is our current list of player in the virtual portfolio. Those marked with "May 16" as first listed were newly added this month. Selection criteria: Top 25 Players with the highest Peak Goalimpact that yet to turn 20, plus any player that was selected in a previous round even though he may no longer qualify today.

Player Transfermarkt First Listed Transfermarkt @ first listed Goalimpact PeakGI Player Age
Anonymous Talent 20 0 € Jul 15 0 € 114 174 18
Anonymous Talent 24 500.000 € Sep 15 0 € 110 170 18
Anonymous Talent 40 75.000 € Mai 16 75.000 € 105 159 18
Anonymous Talent 11 75.000 € Apr 15 50.000 € 118 159 19
Anonymous Talent 41 0 € Mai 16 0 € 96 157 17
Anonymous Talent 42 0 € Mai 16 0 € 97 157 17
Anonymous Talent 43 0 € Mai 16 0 € 95 156 17
Anonymous Talent 4 700.000 € Apr 15 500.000 € 111 154 19
Anonymous Talent 44 100.000 € Mai 16 100.000 € 94 154 18
Anonymous Talent 45 50.000 € Mai 16 50.000 € 93 153 18
Anonymous Talent 19 1.200.000 € Jul 15 500.000 € 96 153 19
Anonymous Talent 30 2.000.000 € Jan 16 1.750.000 € 99 152 18
Anonymous Talent 46 0 € Mai 16 0 € 92 152 17
Renato Sanches, SL Benfica 10.000.000 € Mai 16 10.000.000 € 105 152 19
Youri Tielemans, RSC Anderlecht 12.000.000 € Apr 15 12.000.000 € 110 151 19
Anonymous Talent 47 150.000 € Mai 16 150.000 € 99 151 18
Anonymous Talent 48 0 € Mai 16 0 € 91 151 18
Andrija Živković, Partizan 7.000.000 € Apr 15 3.000.000 € 125 151 20
Anonymous Talent 49 0 € Mai 16 0 € 94 151 18
Breel-Donald Embolo, FC Basel 20.000.000 € Apr 15 8.000.000 € 111 148 19
Rubén Neves, FC Porto 11.000.000 € Apr 15 5.000.000 € 110 148 19
Ante Ćorić, Dinamo Zagreb 6.000.000 € Jul 15 2.500.000 € 108 148 19
Anonymous Talent 50 0 € Mai 16 0 € 87 148 17
Anonymous Talent 51 1.000.000 € Mai 16 1.000.000 € 88 148 18
Anonymous Talent 34 2.000.000 € Jan 16 900.000 € 99 147 19
Anonymous Talent 52 0 € Mai 16 0 € 95 147 18
Anonymous Talent 27 1.500.000 € Sep 15 500.000 € 117 147 20
Anonymous Talent 37 1.000.000 € Jan 16 0 € 95 146 18
Anonymous Talent 25 0 € Sep 15 0 € 91 146 18
Anonymous Talent 28 600.000 € Jan 16 600.000 € 84 144 18
Anonymous Talent 29 250.000 € Jan 16 250.000 € 81 142 17
Anonymous Talent 18 50.000 € Jul 15 0 € 104 141 20
Martin Ødegaard, Real Madrid Castilla 4.000.000 € Jan 16 4.000.000 € 80 141 17
Anonymous Talent 2 1.200.000 € Apr 15 1.000.000 € 102 140 19
Anonymous Talent 5 300.000 € Apr 15 350.000 € 103 139 20
Anonymous Talent 1 500.000 € Apr 15 300.000 € 91 138 19
Anonymous Talent 16 250.000 € Apr 15 0 € 107 137 20
Anonymous Talent 3 600.000 € Apr 15 1.000.000 € 99 135 19
Anonymous Talent 8 1.500.000 € Apr 15 500.000 € 104 134 20
Anonymous Talent 26 1.500.000 € Sep 15 750.000 € 88 134 19
Anonymous Talent 15 1.500.000 € Apr 15 1.000.000 € 97 133 19
Richairo Živković 2.000.000 € Apr 15 4.000.000 € 103 132 20
Anonymous Talent 17 700.000 € Jul 15 200.000 € 94 132 19
Anonymous Talent 12 400.000 € Apr 15 125.000 € 98 128 20
Teddy Bishop, Ipswich Town 2.500.000 € Apr 15 2.500.000 € 101 127 20
Anonymous Talent 21 0 Mai 16 0 62,09 117,34 18,25

Anonymous Talent 20 is now the world's highest rated talent. Still unknown enough that he has no transfermarkt.DE value and you will find nearly no videos of him on Youtube. Still we expect him to get known rather sooner than later and to see his value skyrocket.

PS: Our former top talent Julian Brandt turned 20 and is no longer in the list.