Bundesliga Season Ticker 2016/2017

We received a lot of positive feedback last year on the season ticker. This is motivation enough to again offer it his year. This page will be regularly updated with the lastet prediction on how the Bundesliga season 2016/2017 will end.

This chart shows the development of the prediction. Further down you will find more detailed information on why the predictions changed. Newest information in on top. All predictions are calculated on the base assumption of no further transfers. For some clubs, we would expect more transfers and hence you should adjust for this if you utilize the numbers for games.

The x-axis denotes the time the prediction was made and the y-axis the number of points each team was AT THAT POINT in time expected to have in the final table that season. The strong narrowing of points in August 2016 is due to an update of the algorithm.

 

Detailed Updates:

18TH September 2016: Match day 3 completed. Matches were

  • 1. FC Köln vs SC Freiburg 3 : 0
  • Bayern München vs FC Ingolstadt 04 3 : 1
  • Borussia Dortmund vs SV Darmstadt 98 6 : 0
  • Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig 0 : 4
  • 1899 Hoffenheim vs VfL Wolfsburg 0 : 0
  • Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen 2 : 1
  • Bor. Mönchengladbach vs Werder Bremen 4 : 1
  • FC Augsburg vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 1 : 3
  • Hertha BSC vs FC Schalke 04 2 : 0

Notable events

  • 1. FSV Mainz 05: André Ramalho got injured. Estimated return date 09.10.2016 and Jhon Córdoba returned from injury
  • 1899 Hoffenheim: Pirmin Schwegler got injured. Estimated return date 28.11.2016
  • Bayer Leverkusen: Chicharito returned from injury
  • Eintracht Frankfurt: Guillermo Varela: new injury return date 31.12.2016. Marco Russ extended contract until 30.06.2019. Slobodan Medojevic returned from injury
  • FC Augsburg: Caiuby got injured. Estimated return date 14.03.2017
  • RB Leipzig: Lukas Klostermann got injured. Estimated return date 28.04.2017
  • SC Freiburg: Janik Haberer returned from injury. Maximilian Philipp extended contract until 30.06.2019
  • VfL Wolfsburg: Daniel Didavi got injured. Estimated return date 16.03.2017. Luiz Gustavo got injured. Estimated return date 16.11.2016
  • Werder Bremen: Luca Caldirola: new injury return date 16.01.2017. Niklas Moisander returned from injury

 

11TH September 2016: Match day 2 completed. Matches were

  • FC Schalke 04 vs Bayern München 0 : 2
  • Bayer Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV 3 : 1
  • VfL Wolfsburg vs 1. FC Köln 0 : 0
  • FC Ingolstadt 04 vs Hertha BSC 0 : 2
  • SV Darmstadt 98 vs Eintracht Frankfurt 1 : 0
  • SC Freiburg vs Bor. Mönchengladbach 3 : 1
  • RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund 1 : 0
  • Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg 1 : 2
  • 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim 4 : 4

The two main title opponents of Bayern Munich, Wolfsburg and Dortmund, both dropped points, while the Bavarians earned a narrow victory against Schalke. This increased their title odds to 70%.

Notable other events

  • Bayer Leverkusen: Kyriakos Papadopoulos loaned out until 30.06.2017. Remaining contract until 30.06.2020
  • Bor. Mönchengladbach: Patrick Herrmann got injured. Estimated return date 03.10.2016
  • FC Augsburg: Martin Hinteregger signed from 31.08.2016 until 30.06.2018
  • FC Schalke 04: Kaan Ayhan left the team.
  • FC Schalke 04: Yevhen Konoplyanka signed from 30.08.2016 until 30.06.2017
  • Hertha BSC: Ronny left the team.
  • RB Leipzig: Kyriakos Papadopoulos signed from 31.08.2016 until 30.06.2017
  • SC Freiburg: Philipp Zulechner left the team.
  • SV Darmstadt 98: Júnior Díaz left the team.
  • VfL Wolfsburg: Philipp Wollscheid signed from 31.08.2016 until 30.06.2017
  • Werder Bremen: Luca Caldirola got injured. Estimated return date 10.01.2017
  • Werder Bremen: Niklas Moisander got injured. Estimated return date 11.03.2017 (Conservative estimate. Injury details not known)
  • Werder Bremen: Serge Gnabry signed from 31.08.2016 until 30.06.2020.

 

28TH AUGUST 2016: Match day 1 completed. Matches were

  • 1. FC Köln vs SV Darmstadt 98 2 : 0
  • 1899 Hoffenheim vs RB Leipzig 2 : 2
  • Bayern München vs Werder Bremen 6 : 0
  • Bor. Mönchengladbach vs Bayer Leverkusen 2 : 1
  • Borussia Dortmund vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 2 : 1
  • Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Schalke 04 1 : 0
  • FC Augsburg vs VfL Wolfsburg 0 : 2
  • Hamburger SV vs FC Ingolstadt 04 1 : 1
  • Hertha BSC vs SC Freiburg 2 : 1

Other changes due to

  • 1. FC Köln
    • Dominic Maroh got injured. Estimated return date 20.09.2016
  • 1. FSV Mainz 05
    • Devante Parker got injured. Estimated return date 09.09.2016
    • Levin Öztunali signed from 25.08.2016 until 30.06.2021
  • 1899 Hoffenheim
    • Jonathan Schmid left the team.
    • Tarik Elyounoussi left the team.
  • Bayer Leverkusen
    • Karim Bellarabi extended contract until 30.06.2021
    • Levin Öztunali left the team.
    • Wendell extended contract until 30.06.2021
  • Borussia Dortmund:
    • Mario Götze returned from injury
  • Eintracht Frankfurt
    • Ante Rebic got injured. Estimated return date 14.10.2017
    • Daniel Dejanovic signed from 26.08.2016. Contract end unknown.
  • FC Augsburg
    • Alexander Esswein left the team.
    • Dominik Reinhardt returned from injury
    • Jonathan Schmid signed from 26.08.2016 until 30.06.2020
  • FC Schalke 04
    • Benjamin Stambouli signed from 26.08.2016 until 30.06.2020
    • Nabil Bentaleb signed from 25.08.2016 until 30.06.2017
  • Hamburger SV
    • Gideon Jung got injured. Estimated return date 19.09.2016
    • Lewis Holtby returned from injury
  • Hertha BSC
    • Alexander Esswein signed from 26.08.2016 until 30.06.2020
    • Mitchell Weiser extended contract until 30.06.2020
    • Ondrej Duda: new injury return date 20.10.2016. Was 27.08.2016
  • RB Leipzig
    • Bernardo signed from 28.08.2016 until 30.06.2021
    • Diego Demme returned from injury
    • Oliver Burke signed from 28.08.2016 until 30.06.2021
  • VfL Wolfsburg
    • Bas Dost left the team.
    • Bruno Henrique returned from injury
    • Diego Benaglio extended contract until 30.06.2019
    • Julian Draxler returned from injury
    • Maximilian Arnold returned from injury
  • Werder Bremen
    • Aron Jóhannsson returned from injury
    • Zlatko Junuzovic got injured. Estimated return date 26.09.2016

 

23RD AUGUST 2016: Post vacation catch-up of all mayor changes. Among them an update of the algorithm. This update narrowed the predictions and hence implying to be less sure about the differences in team quality. This was necessary due to upsets happening such as Leicester City's title win that had so low odds that with hindsight weren't realistic. But apart from the algorithm, also the teams changed.

  • Bayern Munich
    • Arjen Robben: new injury return date 05.09.2016. Was 29.08.2016
    • Douglas Costa got injured. Estimated return date 20.02.2017. This is an automatically generated conservative estimate because Bayern doesn't state his injury.
    • Gianluca Gaudino returned from injury
    • Holger Badstuber got injured. Estimated return date 31.08.2016
    • Jérôme Boateng got injured. Estimated return date 22.11.2016
    • Kingsley Coman got injured. Estimated return date 05.09.2016
    • Renato Sanches got injured. Estimated return date 05.09.2016
  • Borussia Dortmund
    • Erik Durm got injured. Estimated return date 24.10.2017
    • Marco Reus got injured. Estimated return date 29.08.2016
    • Moritz Leitner left the team.
  • Bayer Leverkusen
    • Aleksandar Dragovic signed from 23.08.2016 until 30.06.2021
    • Chicharito got injured. Estimated return date 05.09.2016
    •  Kyriakos Papadopoulos returned from injury
    • Lars Bender got injured. Estimated return date 04.09.2016
    • Stefan Kießling got injured. Estimated return date 31.10.2016
  • Wolfsburg
    • Bruno Henrique: new injury return date 05.09.2016. Was 15.08.2016
    • Dante left the team.
    • Julian Draxler got injured. Estimated return date 29.10.2016
    • Mario Gómez signed from 17.08.2016 until 30.06.2019
    • Maximilian Arnold: new injury return date 05.09.2016. Was 15.08.2016
    • Vieirinha got injured. Estimated return date 07.02.2017
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach
    • Alper Arslan extended contract until 30.06.2019
    • Álvaro Domínguez got injured. Estimated return date 04.09.2016
    •  Marvin Schulz: new injury return date 05.09.2016. Was 15.08.2016
    • Patrick Herrmann returned from injury
  • FC Schalke 04
    • Abdul Rahman Baba signed from 02.08.2016 until 30.06.2017
    • Atsuto Uchida got injured. Estimated return date 05.09.2016
    •  Coke got injured. Estimated return date 20.03.2017
    • Donis Avdijaj: new injury return date 05.09.2016. Was 24.08.2016
    • Leon Goretzka got injured. Estimated return date 22.09.2016
    • Leroy Sané left the team.
  • Hertha BSC
    • Allan signed from 05.08.2016 until 30.06.2017
    • Ronny returned from injury
    • Tolga Cigerci left the team.
  • TSG 1899 Hoffenheim had no news
  • RB Leipzig
    • Anthony Jung loaned out until 30.06.2017. Remaining contract until 30.06.2019
    • Diego Demme: new injury return date 05.09.2016. Was 15.08.2016
    • Omer Damari loaned out until 31.12.2016. Remaining contract until 30.06.2018
  • FC Augsburg
    • Erik Thommy got injured. Estimated return date 09.02.2017
    • Flemming Niemann returned from injury
    • Jan-Ingwer Callsen-Bracker: new injury return date 05.09.2016. Was 08.08.2016
    • Shawn Parker extended contract until 30.06.2019 and loaned out until 30.06.2017
    • Tobias Werner left the team.
  • Hamburger SV
    • Albin Ekdal got injured. Estimated return date 08.09.2016
    • Andreas Hirzel returned from injury
    • Arianit Ferati: new injury return date 05.09.2016. Was 08.08.2016
    • Ashton Götz returned from injury
    • Sven Schipplock loaned out until 30.06.2017. Remaining contract until 30.06.2018
    • Zoltán Stieber left the team.
  • FSV Mainz 05
    • Danny Latza: new injury return date 05.09.2016. Was 22.08.2016
    • Gianluca Curci got injured. Estimated return date 02.02.2017
    • Jairo Samperio got injured. Estimated return date 07.10.2016
  • 1. FC Köln
    • Jonas Hector extended contract until 30.06.2021
    • Leonardo Bittencourt extended contract until 30.06.2021
    • Robert Voloder signed from 01.07.2016 until 30.06.2019
    • Leon Augusto extended contract until 30.06.2018
  • Werder Bremen
    • Alejandro Gálvez left the team.
    • Aron Jóhannsson: new injury return date 05.09.2016. Was 08.08.2016
    • Claudio Pizarro got injured. Estimated return date 15.10.2016
    • Florian Grillitsch returned from injury
    • Lamine Sané signed from 04.08.2016 until 30.06.2019
    • László Kleinheisler loaned out until 30.06.2017. Remaining contract until 30.06.2019
    • Max Kruse signed from 02.08.2016 until 30.06.2019 and got injured. Estimated return date 07.09.2016.
    • Niklas Moisander returned from injury
    • Philipp Bargfrede: new injury return date 05.09.2016. Was 08.08.2016
    • Robert Bauer signed from 23.08.2016 until 30.06.2020
    • Santiago García: new injury return date 05.09.2016. Was 08.08.2016
  • SC Freiburg
    • Havard Nielsen got injured. Estimated return date 31.08.2016
    • Marc Torrejón got injured. Estimated return date 30.09.2016
    • Marc-Oliver Kempf got injured. Estimated return date 28.11.2016
    • Rafal Gikiewicz signed from 05.08.2016 until 30.06.2019
    • Sebastian Kerk got injured. Estimated return date 31.08.2016
  • Eintracht Frankfurt
    • Ahmed Diack: new injury return date 05.09.2016. Was 08.08.2016
    • Bamba Anderson: new injury return date 05.09.2016. Was 08.08.2016
    • Haris Seferovic got injured. Estimated return date 27.08.2016
    • Marco Russ: new injury return date 01.02.2017. Was 14.11.2016
    • Michael Hector signed from 14.08.2016 until 30.06.2017
    • Slobodan Medojevic: new injury return date 26.09.2016. Was 08.08.2016
  • SV Darmstadt 98 signs like last season late in the window.
    • Marvin Anastasi signed from 01.07.2016 until 30.06.2018
    • Änis Ben-Hatira signed from 22.08.2016 until 30.06.2017
    • Denys Oliynyk signed from 09.08.2016 until 30.06.2018
    • Felix Platte: new injury return date 05.09.2016. Was 08.08.2016
    • Igor Berezovsky signed from 19.08.2016. Contract end unknown.
    • László Kleinheisler signed from 13.08.2016 until 30.06.2017
    • Marvin Anastasi signed from 01.07.2016 until 30.06.2018
    • Sven Schipplock signed from 16.08.2016 until 30.06.2017
    • Victor Obinna signed from 05.08.2016 until 30.06.2018
    • Yannick Stark loaned out until 30.06.2017. Remaining contract until 30.06.2018
  • FC Ingolstadt
    • Amar Suljic signed from 01.07.2016. Contract end unknown.
    • Anthony Jung signed from 04.08.2016 until 30.06.2017
    • Dennis Vogel  signed from 11.08.2016. Contract end unknown.
    • Florent Hadergjonaj signed from 08.08.2016 until 30.06.2020
    • Jens Förtsch signed from 01.07.2016 until 30.06.2018
    • Korbinian Becker signed from 01.07.2016 until 30.06.2018
    • Lars Gindorf signed from 23.08.2016. Contract end unknown.
    • Max Ahammer signed from 01.07.2016 until 30.06.2018
    • Patrick Sussek extended contract until 30.06.2019
    • Robert Bauer left the team.
    • Sam Buchmann left the team.
    • Sonny Kittel got injured. Estimated return date 05.09.2016
    • Yanick Tobias signed from 01.07.2016 until 30.06.2018

 

1ST AUGUST 2016: Some movement on the transfer market, so a quick update here.

  • FC Schalke 04: Fabian Reese returned from injury and Coke signed from 31.07.2016 until 30.06.2019. Coke, while a big name is already past his peak. But he remain good enough to bring the team forward and maybe is also seen as experienced player that can lead and teach the Knappen also in training.
  • VfL Wolfsburg: Josuha Guilavogui got injured and is expected to be out until 20.10.2016. Jakub Blaszczykowski signed from 01.08.2016 until 30.06.2019. Kuba comes from rival BVB. For this season, this is a significant transfer that improves Wolfburg more than it hurts Dortmund. Hence it makes sense for both sides. For Kuba himself, also the timing seems ideal, because he is aging and risked to be sidelined in Dortmund, while he can be still first team in Wolfsburg,
  • Borussia Dortmund: Jakub Blaszczykowski left the team. As said above, this costs a bit, roughly 0.5 expected points this season. However, as Kuba is already aging while the young players are improving, the impact on future seasons is lower and from the perspective of team planning this makes absolutely sense for Dortmund.
  • FC Ingolstadt 04: Moritz Hartmann extended contract until 30.06.2018. The impact on this season is obviously zero, but for 2017/2018 it improves expected points.
  • FC Augsburg: Paul Verhaegh returned from injury
  • Bayer Leverkusen: Malcolm Cacutalua left the team. He was unlikely to get regular playing time, so it is probably a good move for him. Impact on B04 expected points is minor.

 

30TH JULY 2016: The Bundesliga Season Ticker is back. Like last year we expect a tight relegation race. Many teams face the risk of leaving the league. Oddly, this year not the newly promoted teams are in the biggest risk of relegation. It's last years promotions again: Ingolstadt and Darmstadt. RB Leipzig is not expected to reach Europa League, but has a fair chance. Werder Bremen continues to ride on the edge.

  • RB Leipzig: Eric Berger left the team.
  • RB Leipzig: Nicolas Kühn left the team.
  • SV Darmstadt 98: Manassé Eshele signed from 01.07.2016
  • Hamburger SV: Emir Spahic got injured. Estimated return date 01.09.2016
  • Hertha BSC: John Anthony Brooks returned from injury
  • Hertha BSC: Peter Pekarík returned from injury
  • VfL Wolfsburg: Robin Ziegele returned from injury
  • VfL Wolfsburg: Marcel Reichwein returned from injury
  • Eintracht Frankfurt: Stefan Aigner left the team.