Young Player Challenge - March 2018 Update

The season is about to finish and many teams know already in which league they will play next season and if they qualified for Europe. Therefore it is time to execute planned transfers and quickly find substitutes for players that were sold unplanned.

Part of the scouting and recruiting should be young players, because among those there are many targets that have a very attractive cost-benefit ratio. Those attractive targets are hard to identify within the mass of youth players, though.

2015, we at Goalimpact have started a Young Player Challenge to identify those talents and track their success. We commercially distribute names of attractive targets to clubs. Therefore, they will be anonymous here in the blog, if their value on the website Transfermarkt.de is listed below EUR 2.5 million. Those players we define as "unknown to wider public". Once the value raises above the threshold value we will de-anonymize the player to allow you to check our work.

We also track the performance of a virtual investment portfolio in all unknown players within the top 25 players of the given date of scouting. These are the results so far.

Cohort Investment Up Down Profit Rate of Return
Apr 15 6.700.000 € 63% 19% 47.950.000 € 715,7%
Jul 15 700.000 € 80% 0% 7.350.000 € 1050,0%
Sep 15 1.250.000 € 100% 0% 8.300.000 € 664,0%
Jan 16 3.500.000 € 80% 20% 11.200.000 € 320,0%
Mai 16 1.375.000 € 77% 0% 46.125.000 € 3354,5%

Since the last post nearly two years past, so we have quite a few de-anonymized players

  • Konrad Laimer (was Anonymous Talent #4) was first listed in April 2015 when Transfermarkt.de had him at 500k€. At the time he played second Austrian league. Now he plays Bundesliga and had 4 games in Europa League and 1 in Champions League.
  • Ramadan Sobhy (AT19) was listed in July 2015 when playing in Cairo. Now in Premier League. Market value rose from 500k€ to 6M€.
  • Luka Jović (AT30) listed in Jan 2016 when he was just about to move from Belgrade to Apollon Limassol. Now in Bundesliga with chances to qualify for Champions League.  1.75M€ to 5M€.
  • Dominic Solanke (AT34), listed in Jan 2016 when playing in Arnheim. Now at Liverpool with twenty minutes in a Champions League quarter final. 900k€ -> 8M€
  • Duje Ćaleta-Car (AT27) still plays in Salzburg like when we listed him first in Sep 2015. But he no longer is a mere talent, but rather the backbone of Salzburg defense. He played all Europa League matches he could and lost only one of them. Consequently, he probably will play the semi-final soon. 500k€ -> 6M€
  • David Kownacki (AT2) listed April 2015 when playing for Lech Pozen. Last summer he finally moved to a big league. 1M€ -> 5M€
  • Thilo Kehrer (AT16) also listed April 2015 as U19 player at Schalke. He now plays for the adult team and will qualify for Champions League with them. 0€ -> 13M€
  • Lewis Cook (AT15) is another player from the April 2015 cohort. He played at Leeds in the Championship back then. Now Premier League with Bournemouth. 1M€ -> 15M€.
  • Christian Pulisic (AT51) was already partly at Dortmund's first team when we listed him in May 2016. Partly he still played U19. 1M€ -> 45M€. He isn't 20 years old yet so he still is listed below.

And here is our current list of player in the virtual portfolio. Those marked with "Mrz 18" as first listed were newly added this month. Selection criteria: Top 25 Players with the highest Peak Goalimpact that yet to turn 20, plus any player that was selected in a previous round even though he may no longer qualify today Goalimpact-wise.

Player Transfermarkt First Listed Transfermarkt @
first listed
Goalimpact PeakGI AGE
Anonymous Talent 53 75.000 Mrz 18 75.000 48 168 16
Matthijs de
Ligt
25.000.000 Mrz 18 25.000.000 120 164 19
Anonymous
Talent 54
0 Mrz 18 0 83 163 17
Willem
Geubbels
6.000.000 Mrz 18 6.000.000 50 162 17
Anonymous
Talent 55
50.000 Mrz 18 50.000 58 161 17
Anonymous
Talent 56
300.000 Mrz 18 300.000 120 160 19
Anonymous Talent 51
Christian Pulisic
45.000.000 Mai 16 1.000.000 123 156 19
Anonymous
Talent 57
500.000 Mrz 18 500.000 68 156 17
Anonymous
Talent 58
700.000 Mrz 18 700.000 75 155 17
Anonymous
Talent 59
175.000 Mrz 18 175.000 119 154 19
Anonymous
Talent 60
50.000 Mrz 18 50.000 60 154 17
Phil Foden 5.000.000 Mrz 18 5.000.000 92 153 18
Justin
Kluivert
7.500.000 Mrz 18 7.500.000 112 153 19
Anonymous
Talent 61
75.000 Mrz 18 75.000 29 153 16
Anonymous
Talent 62
25.000 Mrz 18 25.000 47 152 17
Anonymous
Talent 63
0 Mrz 18 0 103 152 18
Hannes Wolf 3.000.000 Mrz 18 3.000.000 111 151 19
Anonymous
Talent 64
0 Mrz 18 0 79 151 18
Kylian Mbappé 120.000.000 Mrz 18 120.000.000 114 151 19
Anonymous
Talent 65
0 Mrz 18 0 61 151 17
Jadon Sancho 8.000.000 Mrz 18 8.000.000 95 150 18
Anonymous
Talent 66
300.000 Mrz 18 300.000 46 150 17
Ryan Sessegnon 25.000.000 Mrz 18 25.000.000 89 149 18
Anonymous
Talent 41
0 Mai 16 0 18
Anonymous
Talent 42
100.000 Mai 16 0 19
Anonymous
Talent 43
0 Mai 16 0 19
Anonymous
Talent 44
750.000 Mai 16 100.000 19
Anonymous
Talent 45
150.000 Mai 16 50.000 19
Anonymous
Talent 46
100.000 Mai 16 0 19
Anonymous
Talent 48
50.000 Mai 16 0 19
Anonymous
Talent 50
0 Mai 16 0 19
Anonymous
Talent 28
750.000 Jan 16 600.000 19
Anonymous
Talent 29
150.000 Jan 16 250.000 19
Martin
Ødegaard
3.500.000 Jan 16 4.000.000 19