Supercopa 2014: Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid: Goalimpact of Linups

Real Madrid would be the favorite even if it would field their worst eleven players. Not sure how to value the home field advantage in this on. Here are the odds based on the starting XIs depending on where you put the HFA.

Real Madrid: 71.2% (Home), draw: 19.8%, Atletico Madrid: 9.1%

Real Madrid: 40.5%, draw: 30.5%, Atletico Madrid: 29.0% (Home)

Real Madrid: 56.1%, draw: 26.6%, Atletico Madrid: 17.3% (Neutral Ground)


Real Madrid

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Iker Casillas195.1196.233.2Spanien75470056
Pepe136.5156.131.4Portugal33329545
Sergio Ramos168.0173.928.3Spanien50745096
Marcelo140.8141.526.3Brasilien29424541
Dani Carvajal127.8137.422.6Spanien [U21]917590
Toni Kroos135.6138.624.6Deutschland30521932
Gareth Bale125.4127.425.1Wales32527481
Xabi Alonso170.3198.032.7Spanien63051740
Luka Modric126.0132.528.9Kroatien33227256
Cristiano Ronaldo206.5213.529.5Portugal62051827
Karim Benzema154.4156.226.6Frankreich41127102
Average153.3161.028.1
Bench
Keylor Navas101.9108.327.7Costa Rica15214106
Raphaël Varane118.9135.021.3Frankreich1119205
Fábio Coentrão119.8121.026.4Portugal23117835
Arbeloa127.3147.831.5Spanien33828846
Ángel Di María142.9144.326.5Argentinien38125142
Isco117.4128.022.3Spanien16512106
James Rodríguez125.1132.823.1Kolumbien20414874
Average121.9131.025.5


Atletico Madrid

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Moyá93.596.930.3Spanien [U21]22220276
Diego Godín121.5127.628.4Uruguay34230803
Siqueira93.199.028.318413725
Juanfran118.1125.229.6Spanien36527603
Miranda133.3140.629.9Brasilien32729603
Mario Suárez114.6118.727.4Spanien22216131
Koke120.9130.522.6Spanien19312908
Raúl García118.8124.628.1Spanien [U21]40827165
Gabi113.2129.631.138630311
Saúl92.4119.619.7Spanien [U21]665056
Mario Mandžukic124.8130.728.2Kroatien27221298
Average113.1122.127.6
Bench
Jan Oblak91.4149.021.6Slowenien787190
Cristian Ansaldi106.2111.527.820317104
José Giménez90.4119.519.5Uruguay312689
Tiago105.2135.733.3Portugal36925949
Cristian Rodríguez101.2107.628.8Uruguay32718513
Raúl Jiménez109.8116.923.3Mexiko1168501
Antoine Griezmann106.0112.623.3Frankreich22517061
Average101.5121.825.4


Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid: GIs for Lineups


Real Madrid

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Iker Casillas165.9165.932.9Spanien74969560
Raphaël Varane115.9139.021.0Frankreich1038491
Sergio Ramos171.2176.228.1Spanien49944321
Fábio Coentrão126.9127.326.2Portugal22717582
Dani Carvajal127.7141.722.3Spanien [U21]887327
Sami Khedira139.7142.427.1Deutschland33426492
Gareth Bale126.6130.724.8Wales32227171
Luka Modric130.1135.528.7Kroatien32526638
Ángel Di María147.2147.726.3Argentinien37224352
Cristiano Ronaldo197.1202.829.3Portugal61451322
Karim Benzema158.0158.926.3Frankreich39826141
Bench
Diego López110.4110.432.529827356
Pepe143.7159.831.2Portugal33029322
Marcelo150.2150.326.0Brasilien28323593
Arbeloa136.3153.331.3Spanien33628742
Isco116.8132.022.0Spanien16011709
Illarramendi120.7127.024.2Spanien [U21]1137876
Morata121.2140.321.5Spanien [U21]804278


Atletico Madrid

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Thibaut Courtois131.7131.722.0Belgien20418932
Diego Godín123.6128.828.2Uruguay33530121
Filipe Luís124.8130.228.8Brasilien30426415
Juanfran119.3125.129.3Spanien36027180
Miranda134.7140.829.7Brasilien32329200
Tiago108.7136.233.0Portugal36525546
Koke120.8134.822.3Spanien18712432
Raúl García121.6126.127.8Spanien [U21]40026663
Gabi115.2128.130.838229908
David Villa137.1161.932.4Spanien51639202
Diego Costa116.3117.825.622817352
Bench
Aranzubía94.294.234.6Spanien36934102
Toby Alderweireld142.8145.625.2Belgien20518073
Mario Suárez117.6120.627.2Spanien22116038
Cristian Rodríguez107.9113.228.6Uruguay32318173
Diego118.1123.829.2Brasilien38631972
José Sosa115.4120.928.8Argentinien36123320
Adrián110.6111.426.3Spanien29118427


Atlético Madrid - FC Barcelona: Stats for Lineups

Given the starting XI, FC Barcelona is expected to win at Atletico Madrid by a narrow margin of 0.12 goals. This is a tight match.

Atletico Madrid

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Thibaut Courtois130.6130.621.9Belgien19618188
Diego Godín122.3127.328.1Uruguay32729377
Filipe Luís123.4128.828.7Brasilien29625671
Juanfran117.7123.529.3Spanien35226439
Miranda133.3139.329.6Brasilien31628549
Tiago107.9135.032.9Portugal35925045
Koke119.8134.122.3Spanien17911724
Raúl García120.5124.827.8Spanien [U21]39125960
Gabi114.8127.130.837629350
Adrián110.4111.026.3Spanien Olymp.28618191
David Villa136.1160.632.3Spanien50738650
Bench
Aranzubía94.694.634.5Spanien Olymp.36934102
Toby Alderweireld142.5145.725.1Belgien20317977
Emiliano Insúa112.9115.625.3Argentinien16914685
Mario Suárez117.2119.927.1Spanien21615654
Cristian Rodríguez108.0113.328.5Uruguay31818071
José Sosa115.6121.128.8Argentinien35523192
Carlos Ramos84.4120.519.6171


FC Barcelona

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Pinto76.576.538.422220264
Bartra127.4137.623.3Spanien [U21]1189847
Jordi Alba120.2123.625.0Spanien23718081
Dani Alves178.2192.030.9Brasilien53846090
Cesc Fàbregas179.7181.926.9Spanien49437445
Xavi145.9179.934.2Spanien76261995
Iniesta157.2163.329.9Spanien52437095
Javier Mascherano165.2171.329.8Argentinien45138387
Busquets154.9155.925.8Spanien30424390
Lionel Messi182.1184.026.8Argentinien45937457
Neymar115.2129.922.2Brasilien19115272
Bench
Oier99.999.924.6585377
Martín Montoya129.2140.423.0Spanien [U21]12810800
Adriano131.0136.829.4Brasilien35725654
Alex Song141.8143.226.6Kamerun34026760
Sergi Roberto113.8128.522.2Spanien [U21]1278881
Pedro145.3147.026.7Spanien28018212
Alexis Sánchez137.4139.825.3Chile33422408


Stats on Lineups for Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid

Curious to see Pinto's game. He is strikingly low rated for a Barca player. Barca expected to win by 0.684 goals anyway.

FC Barcelona

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Pinto76.576.538.422220264
Piqué155.5158.427.2Spanien35630111
Jordi Alba120.2123.625.0Spanien23718081
Dani Alves178.2192.030.9Brasilien53846090
Cesc Fàbregas179.7181.926.9Spanien49437445
Xavi145.9179.934.2Spanien76261995
Iniesta157.2163.329.9Spanien52437095
Javier Mascherano165.2171.329.8Argentinien45138387
Busquets154.9155.925.8Spanien30424390
Lionel Messi182.1184.026.8Argentinien45937457
Neymar115.2129.922.2Brasilien19115272
Bench
Oier99.999.924.6585377
Bartra127.4137.623.3Spanien [U21]1189847
Adriano131.0136.829.4Brasilien35725654
Alex Song141.8143.226.6Kamerun34026760
Sergi Roberto113.8128.522.2Spanien [U21]1278881
Pedro145.3147.026.7Spanien28018212
Alexis Sánchez137.4139.825.3Chile33422408


Atletico Madrid

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Thibaut Courtois130.6130.621.9Belgien19618188
Diego Godín122.3127.328.1Uruguay32729377
Filipe Luís123.4128.828.7Brasilien29625671
Juanfran117.7123.529.3Spanien35226439
Miranda133.3139.329.6Brasilien31628549
Tiago107.9135.032.9Portugal35925045
Koke119.8134.122.3Spanien17911724
Arda Turan132.5135.427.2Türkei34826847
Gabi114.8127.130.837629350
David Villa136.1160.632.3Spanien50738650
Diego Costa115.0116.825.522216880
Bench
Aranzubía94.694.634.5Spanien36934102
Toby Alderweireld142.5145.725.1Belgien20317977
Emiliano Insúa112.9115.625.3Argentinien16914685
Mario Suárez117.2119.927.1Spanien21615654
Cristian Rodríguez108.0113.328.5Uruguay31818071
Diego117.5123.229.1Brasilien38031690
José Sosa115.6121.128.8Argentinien35523192


AC Milan - Atlético Madrid: Line-ups rated

There is some great quality in Milan, but we see also some weak spots. Atletico doesn't show such weak links and hence we consider it to be the favorite in this tie.

AC Milan

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Christian Abbiati104.5104.536.6Italien Olymp.42138169
Mattia De Sciglio100.8121.821.3Italien574965
Adil Rami119.4123.828.1Frankreich25723302
Daniele Bonera88.2111.832.7Italien37431646
Michael Essien134.6148.431.2Ghana48539739
Andrea Poli95.6100.224.3Italien [U19]17511613
Adel Taarabt97.6101.324.7Marokko19312970
Urby Emanuelson138.6142.127.7Niederlande35926898
Nigel de Jong137.3142.329.2Niederlande43834723
Kaká134.4152.631.8Brasilien44834425
Mario Balotelli112.8121.023.5Italien21713655
Bench
Marco Amelia76.876.831.8Italien26724576
Philippe Mexès115.6134.231.8Frankreich48042377
Ignazio Abate102.7105.327.3Italien23618082
Kevin Constant103.3104.826.8Ruanda18313729
Cristian Zaccardo78.398.832.1Italien39732723
Giampaolo Pazzini115.0120.229.5Italien33721932
Andrea Petagna85.7132.618.6Italien [U19]12366


Atletico Madrid

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Thibaut Courtois129.3129.321.8Belgien18417072
Diego Godín121.4125.628.0Uruguay31227913
Juanfran118.3123.229.1Spanien33825103
Emiliano Insúa112.2114.825.1Argentinien16314127
Miranda132.6137.729.4Brasilien30527526
Mario Suárez116.1118.126.9Spanien20314643
Koke118.0133.122.1Spanien16710787
Raúl García117.3120.627.6Spanien [U21]37424791
Arda Turan132.1134.227.0Türkei33626024
Gabi116.0125.630.636227987
Diego Costa114.6116.525.321015767
Bench
Aranzubía96.496.434.3Spanien Olymp.36433562
Toby Alderweireld142.6145.624.9Belgien19817512
Cristian Rodríguez109.2113.728.3Uruguay30917788
Diego114.9119.828.9Brasilien35529983
José Sosa116.1120.728.6Argentinien34422768
Adrián106.8106.926.1Spanien Olymp.27017289
David Villa138.5159.332.2Spanien51239396


Atlético Madrid vs FC Barcelona: Team Rooster

Ateltico is a team without apparent weakness, but Barca is individually much better.

Atletico Madrid

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Thibaut Courtois128.7128.721.7Belgien17516235
Diego Godín120.8124.927.9Uruguay30527262
Filipe Luís122.7127.228.4Brasilien28124303
Juanfran118.0122.929.0Spanien33124452
Miranda132.0137.129.3Brasilien29826875
Tiago110.4134.032.7Portugal35424697
Koke117.0132.622.0Spanien15910119
Arda Turan131.8133.726.9Türkei32925535
Gabi114.1123.130.535527382
David Villa139.9160.132.1Spanien50638999
Diego Costa112.9115.125.320215027
Bench
Aranzubía96.396.334.3Spanien Olymp.36333469
Toby Alderweireld142.9146.124.8Belgien19217126
Emiliano Insúa111.9114.725.0Argentinien16214048
Raúl García117.1120.327.5Spanien [U21]36724297
Cristian Rodríguez108.4112.928.3Uruguay30117497
Josuha Guilavogui109.1118.223.3Frankreich1218838
José Sosa115.3119.928.5Argentinien34022631


FC Barcelona

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Victor Valdés157.5157.532.0Spanien57653669
Piqué146.5148.426.9Spanien37231652
Jordi Alba119.8123.224.8Spanien22316729
Dani Alves171.1181.430.7Brasilien56648725
Cesc Fàbregas179.1180.626.7Spanien47135624
Xavi131.4162.133.9Spanien81467112
Iniesta153.8159.129.7Spanien56041179
Javier Mascherano165.4170.629.6Argentinien43537012
Busquets149.8151.325.5Spanien31725687
Pedro140.9141.826.4Spanien28118837
Alexis Sánchez134.3136.925.0Chile31121044
Bench
Pinto75.575.538.221619730
Bartra123.5134.223.0Spanien [U21]1099099
Adriano131.7136.729.2Brasilien34824960
Alex Song139.9140.626.3Kamerun32525679
Sergi Roberto110.2126.421.9Spanien [U21]1138343
Lionel Messi174.5175.626.5Argentinien49140698
Neymar114.9131.121.9Brasilien17914604