RB Salzburg - Rapid Wien 6:1

Red Bull Salzburg takes the pole position in the Austrian Bundesliga right from the start and, frankly, is unlikely to ever lose it again. Even the second team in the league, Rapid Wien, is no match to Salzburg's exquisite offensive and defensive power that would without problem be very competitive in the German Bundesliga, too.

The odds based on starting XI were RB Salzburg: 59.4%, draw: 25.3%, Rapid Wien: 15.3%. It would be even stronger biased towards Salzburg if the best players would form the starting XI. However, Adolf Hütter chose to play with Schiemer that turned out to be the weak link in the defense. He was replaced by Ramalho in minute 55.

That some of the Salzburg players aren't even playing for their respective national teams seems odd and indicates a bias of football pundits against the Austrian league. Due to some technical reasons, the league may be a bit overrated in our algorithm a few points, but even if you'd subtract 10 points from all Schwegler, you'd still expect him to play for Switzerland.

RB Salzburg

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Péter Gulácsi119.9119.924.2Ungarn [U21]1079664
Christian Schwegler138.7145.130.127224169
Franz Schiemer111.5116.928.3Österreich26221968
Andreas Ulmer140.9146.428.7Österreich25422594
Martin Hinteregger132.9149.721.8Österreich [U21]15913243
Stefan Ilsanker134.4137.325.1Österreich [U21]23118078
Christoph Leitgeb122.1127.829.3Österreich31225285
Kevin Kampl139.2146.923.8Slowenien20617407
Sadio Mané128.2142.622.3Senegal1108739
Jonathan Soriano129.4135.028.820113914
Alan133.4136.725.01609158
Average130.1136.826.1
Bench
Peter Ankersen108.3115.823.8Dänemark816917
André Ramalho138.1151.822.31109886
Marcel Sabitzer96.1124.920.3Österreich15811560
Alexander Walke105.7105.731.1Deutschland [U20]32029642
Naby Keita81.2120.019.4231917
Valentino Lazaro75.7128.918.3Österreich [U17]271391
Massimo Bruno104.5129.420.8Belgien [U21]946219
Average101.4125.222.3


Rapid Wien

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Ján Novota110.7110.730.6686320
Thomas Schrammel115.9118.126.820918424
Mario Sonnleitner114.1118.727.8Österreich [U21]33430329
Christopher Dibon121.2129.223.7Österreich [U21]19016972
Maximilian Hofmann109.3133.320.9524430
Thanos Petsos108.0118.623.1Griechenland [U21]15310968
Stefan Schwab94.5102.123.8Österreich [U21]17513638
Louis Schaub103.7141.119.5Österreich [U21]1026562
Steffen Hofmann111.4143.333.844037150
Lukas Grozurek116.2129.222.5Österreich [U21]1679168
Deni Alar104.5109.524.4Österreich [U21]19811359
Average110.0123.125.2
Bench
Philipp Schobesberger109.2137.820.3947119
Dominik Wydra102.9131.720.3Österreich [U19]936865
Robert Beric111.2121.923.0Slowenien [U21]1088402
Marko Maric90.390.318.5Kroatien [U17]242185
Brian Behrendt117.2129.522.712610159
Mario Pavelic104.7129.620.8Österreich [U19]725840
Stefan Stangl95.5107.822.713911819
Average104.4121.221.2






Prediction for the Champions League

The waiting has finally come to an end and the new Champions League season will start this week. Time to dare a prediction for the group phase. Because of the limited number of international games, this is particularly difficult to predict. Let's see how Goalimpact will fare this year.

Group A

Team Goalimpact Min Max
Manchester United 140,0 95,3 170,0
Shakhtar Donetsk 125,7 89,8 155,3
Bayer Leverkusen 116,4 93,5 132,5
Real Sociedad 106,3 94,3 121,8

I see ManU and Shakhtar as favorites with Leverkusen having some chances on rank 2. Given the odds on the betting markets, this seems uncontroversial although the distance of Sociedad is smaller there.

Group B

Team Goalimpact Min Max
Real Madrid 149,8 113,7 197,0
Juventus 126,9 92,6 153,3
Galatasaray 120,5 90,3 158,1
FC Köbenhavn 111,2 88,1 128,8

Again the order is in line with the betting markets. However, according to Goalimpact, Galatasaray's chances to advance instead of Juventus are much bigger than what is implied in the odds.

Group C

Team Goalimpact Min Max
Paris Saint-Germain 129,6 99,5 170,9
RSC Anderlecht 123,9 82,5 145,9
SL Benfica 122,1 97,3 142,9
Olympiakos Piräus 108,9 89,9 138,0

PSG is uncontroversial the top favorite in this group. Goalimpact picked RSC as second, which is heavily disputed by the betting pundits which rank SL Benfica much higher. They even see Anderlecht worse than Olympiakos. Update: After the transfer window closed, RSC Anderlecht dropped to 117, now well behind Benfica.

Group D

Team Goalimpact Min Max
Bayern München 150,9 97,5 187,8
Manchester City 132,3 104,7 158,0
Viktoria Plzen 122,6 89,6 131,2
CSKA Moskva 119,2 94,9 136,4

The top two are very uncontroversial. Plzen and Moskva have the opposite order on the betting markets.

Group E

Team Goalimpact Min Max
Chelsea FC 133,0 103,0 178,9
FC Schalke 04 120,8 99,7 144,3
FC Basel 116,7 93,3 131,2
Steaua Bucuresti 108,0 87,5 118,4

Same order on the betting markets. Finally, again. Schalke expected to advance, but Basel may turn out to be a stumbling block.

Group F

Team Goalimpact Min Max
Borussia Dortmund 131,3 104,1 151,6
Arsenal FC 127,1 106,4 150,6
SSC Napoli 120,9 93,6 154,7
Olympique Marseille 106,6 90,0 124,4

Again same order and about the same implied distances, too. Arsenal and Dortmund will fight for the first group place and Napoli may be a bad surprise for the other one of them. The Özil transfer is not yet reflected in Arsenal's Goalimpact. It is likely to raise it two or three points, bringing it closer to Dortmund. Update: In September the GI of Dortmund dropped significantly due to injuries. Arsenal that gained a bit because of Özil now on top spot.

Group G

Team Goalimpact Min Max
FC Porto 128,2 91,3 158,3
Zenit St. Petersburg 122,8 93,8 139,8
Atletico Madrid 122,7 93,5 151,9
Austria Wien 117,9 104,2 131,9

Both according to the betting markets and Goalimpact the most uncertain outcome will be in this group. All teams are about as good as the others with Porto sticking a bit on the upper side and Austria on the lower side. The betting markets make a firmer statement here, putting Porto and Atletico on 1 and 2, Zenit with good chances to take the place of one of them. Austria, on the other hand, is seen only with low chances to advance. According to Goalimpact, the chances are low, but not that marginal. Update: After the transfer window closed, Ateltico gained one point and is now in front of Zenit.

Group H

Team Goalimpact Min Max
FC Barcelona 158,5 107,7 190,8
AFC Ajax 130,4 101,3 146,5
AC Milan 118,8 95,2 145,9
Celtic FC 117,9 85,2 139,7

I like that prediction, because it again contradicts the betting markets. Ajax has, according to Goalimpact, good chances to advance, while they are only remote if you believe in the rational of the bettors. Update: Redoing the analysis after the transfer window closed, let Ajax drop to 119, only narrowly in front of AC Milan.

Lineups for Austria vs Ireland: WC2014 Qualifier


Österreich

PlayerGoalimpactAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Robert Almer123.529.5Energie Cottbus877803
Sebastian Prödl103.426.2Werder Bremen19716379
György Garics99.029.5Bologna FC26420067
Christian Fuchs108.227.4FC Schalke 0435429629
Aleksandar Dragovic130.622.5Dinamo Kiev22619963
Veli Kavlak116.124.8Besiktas27720295
David Alaba130.321.2Bayern München17613865
Julian Baumgartlinger110.125.71. FSV Mainz 0522316967
Andreas Weimann97.622.1Aston Villa1046375
Martin Harnik115.626.2VfB Stuttgart27220074
Guido Burgstaller110.624.4Rapid Wien20714990
Bench


Irland

PlayerGoalimpactAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
David Forde104.633.7Millwall FC20419007
Marc Wilson102.726.0Stoke City15612856
John O'Shea142.132.3Sunderland AFC51539338
Seamus Coleman114.825.1Everton FC1239383
Richard Dunne106.533.9Queens Park Rangers52546908
Anthony Pilkington105.125.2Norwich City15412153
James McCarthy85.722.8Wigan Athletic17515044
Paul Green95.030.4Leeds United20917956
Jon Walters101.729.9Stoke City31525709
Shane Long105.926.6West Bromwich Albion29017294
Robbie Keane136.733.2Los Angeles Galaxy59945392
Bench