Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern München: DFB-Pokal Final

Bayern playing with the young talent Højbjerg seems a risk, but they are favorites nevertheless. Btw. Shaqiri should be better than Ribery next season due to age effects.

Borussia Dortmund

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Roman Weidenfeller128.1128.133.841137968
Mats Hummels154.2156.425.3Deutschland29425765
Sokratis Papastathopoulos110.0110.325.9Griechenland24219847
Lukasz Piszczek132.5138.028.9Polen26120823
Marcel Schmelzer143.8144.526.3Deutschland24721421
Henrikh Mkhitaryan129.2131.725.3Armenien22118631
Miloš Jojic107.2122.022.1Serbien [U21]704464
Nuri Sahin131.4132.625.7Türkei28922121
Kevin Großkreutz134.4135.225.8Deutschland [U21]31024192
Robert Lewandowski144.8145.925.7Polen27922217
Marco Reus118.5122.224.9Deutschland25920091
Bench
Zlatan Alomerovic109.8109.822.911010088
Manuel Friedrich95.1133.834.7Deutschland41636399
Erik Durm102.9118.522.0Deutschland [U21]1209308
Sebastian Kehl106.7141.134.3Deutschland43435004
Jonas Hofmann105.0121.921.8Deutschland [U21]16010738
Oliver Kirch80.0100.331.722217180
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang111.5115.424.8Gabun23316586


Bayern München

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Manuel Neuer168.5168.528.1Deutschland40037385
Dante136.4147.130.5Brasilien30927631
Rafinha133.5138.928.7Brasilien33828463
Jérôme Boateng148.0149.225.7Deutschland33426959
Philipp Lahm186.6196.730.5Deutschland57551558
Javi Martínez125.1126.325.7Spanien34828648
Mario Götze145.4161.521.9Deutschland19713569
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg99.2145.318.8Dänemark [U21]674975
Toni Kroos138.7144.424.3Deutschland29520937
Arjen Robben155.9164.430.3Niederlande48935881
Thomas Müller168.6173.324.7Deutschland33426093
Bench
Lukas Raeder118.1118.120.3777146
Daniel Van Buyten90.2146.536.3Belgien45839911
Diego Contento122.3129.124.012710075
Franck Ribéry134.2149.331.1Frankreich43535164
Xherdan Shaqiri130.6143.622.6Schweiz20813487
Claudio Pizarro103.9152.635.6Peru60744354


DFB-Pokal: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund


Eintracht Frankfurt

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Kevin Trapp111.3111.323.6Deutschland [U21]14813608
Marco Russ95.099.628.523619643
Carlos Zambrano103.9107.924.6Peru13111622
Constant Djakpa99.5102.327.31238856
Sebastian Jung120.1127.623.6Deutschland [U21]20318188
Alexander Madlung91.5108.231.6Deutschland [U21]30020907
Alexander Meier89.0101.931.1Deutschland [U21]32626272
Johannes Flum100.5100.826.220915702
Sebastian Rode107.2116.123.3Deutschland [U21]14411768
Václav Kadlec118.8136.621.7Tschechien18112272
Bench
Felix Wiedwald94.494.423.9928553
Jan Rosenthal97.8101.727.8Deutschland [U21]18412671
Takashi Inui107.8108.825.7Japan14511634
Martin Lanig100.0105.229.626417883
Stephan Schröck110.1113.227.4Philippinen22313829
Tobias Weis112.1116.728.520014650
Joselu93.099.323.8Spanien [U19]764648


Borussia Dortmund

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Roman Weidenfeller124.8124.833.539436387
Manuel Friedrich94.7129.534.4Deutschland40735758
Sokratis Papastathopoulos105.3106.225.7Griechenland21917765
Lukasz Piszczek130.7135.428.7Polen24419306
Marcel Schmelzer143.1143.226.0Deutschland23820600
Sebastian Kehl106.7137.634.0Deutschland41933790
Henrikh Mkhitaryan127.2129.925.0Armenien19016004
Nuri Sahin127.2128.825.4Türkei26720316
Kevin Großkreutz131.2132.525.5Deutschland [U21]29122597
Robert Lewandowski141.6143.125.4Polen26220756
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang110.3114.124.6Gabun21515588
Bench
Mitchell Langerak110.1110.125.4554967
Marian Sarr76.5118.719.0Deutschland [U19]443499
Jonas Hofmann103.6122.621.6Deutschland [U21]14410182
Miloš Jojic101.9118.321.8Serbien [U21]573849
Oliver Kirch82.398.231.421416680
Julian Schieber114.8117.725.0Deutschland [U21]1708904
Marvin Ducksch97.4129.419.9Deutschland [U17]865743


SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC Schalke 04: Lineup & Stats


SV Darmstadt 98

PlayerGoalimpactAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Jan Zimmermann102.428.416615366
Michael Stegmayer85.828.626923050
Aytac Sulu102.727.718016660
Benjamin Gorka82.629.412810421
Aaron Berzel108.321.3675159
Jerome Gondorf107.925.21109263
Hanno Behrens98.523.41218736
Milan Ivana95.629.8895008
Marco Sailer99.227.823515019
Dominik Stroh-Engel99.927.821815103
Marcel Heller90.527.616710800
Bench
David Salfeld-1.0-1.0-1-1
Benjamin Maas96.524.6553982
Julius Biada105.920.8795002
Elton da Costa99.433.728719581
Uwe Hesse95.325.71309290
Sandro Sirigu113.024.917914032
Dennis Schmidt100.425.4Deutschland [U19]1847888


FC Schalke 04

PlayerGoalimpactAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Timo Hildebrand122.734.4Deutschland41238412
Benedikt Höwedes129.325.5Deutschland25021369
Dennis Aogo104.426.6Deutschland28322202
Joel Matip119.822.1Kamerun16412981
Max Meyer132.618.0Deutschland [U17]503366
Christian Clemens99.722.1Deutschland [U21]1329291
Marco Höger114.424.01259689
Jermaine Jones120.831.8USA30223749
Roman Neustädter124.025.522218134
Jefferson Farfan135.428.8Peru39232472
Adam Szalai113.425.7Ungarn1349168
Bench
Lars Unnerstall113.223.11009221
Tim Hoogland117.228.213410741
Felipe Santana119.827.515411338
Atsuto Uchida127.225.4Japan20918038
Kaan Ayhan138.918.8Deutschland [U17]706091
Leon Goretzka101.018.6Deutschland [U17]604928
Gerald Asamoah121.534.9Deutschland48330681


VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: DFB-Pokal Preview

Just a short glimpse on the two likely staring 11s for tomorrow's DBP-Pokal semifinal between VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg.

VfB Stuttgart


Bench: Cacau (115.4), Tim Hoogland (115.2), Shinji Okazaki (110.5), Federico Macheda (110.3), Tamas Hajnal (108.2), Felipe (101.6), William Kvist (131.9)

Injured: Daniel Didavi (95.7), Tunay Torun (100.3)

It is still unclear if Serdar Tasci (116.9) can play as he is injured and may not recover in time. Cacau (115.4) just returned from injury and may lack training.

Stuttgart's weakness is clearly the midfield. Especially Maxim and Traore are not particularly high scored. For a Bundesliga player I see 100 as lower limit. I'm not sure why the team decided to have many decent central forwards with Goalimpacts between 110 and 115, but no as good central midfielder. Accordingly, only Fürth and Augsburg scored less goals then Stuttgart. Maybe they should consider letting Tamas Hajnal (108.2) play instead of Maxim.

William Kvist (131.9) is also an interesting player. According to his Goalimpact he is the best in the team, however he earned bad critics lately and didn't play lately in the starting 11.

SC Freiburg



Bench: Christian Günter (117.5), Johannes Flum (97.0), Cedric Makiadi (95.5), Marco Terrazzino (95.4), Vegar Hedenstad (94.9), Karim Guede (90.3), Ivan Santini (90.1)

Injured: Sebastian Freis (108.2)

Freiburg's bench is clearly sub par. Only the young Christian Günter (117.5) would be an improvement. But he only recently joined the A team, so it is unclear if Freiburg's trainer Streich will risk to let him play in the cup as Sorg isn't really bad either.

The overall Goalimpact of the players isn't that high and it is really astonishing that they currently on the fifth rank of the Bundesliga. Clearly that is the achievement of Christian Streich.

Odds

It is seldom that odds and Goalimpact deviate that much. Goalimpact, as you can see from the player scores, is skeptical about Freiburg and considers their performance this year partly luck driven. It may be mistaken here and the sudden increase of performance is not due to luck, but the tactical concept of the team.

Goalimpact Betfair
Stuttgart 57,4% 39,7%
x 18,7% 28,5%
Freiburg 23,9% 31,8%

Update

Because Serdar Tasci (116.9) is indeed injured Antonio Rüdiger (95.4) plays tonight. The odds change to.

Goalimpact Betfair
Stuttgart 56,1% 40,0%
x 19,0% 28,0%
Freiburg 24,9% 32,0%


DFB-Pokal: Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg

Just a short preview on tomorrow's match in the DFB-Pokal semifinal. Expected lineups are taken from kicker.de.

Bayern München



VfL Wolfsburg


Some Thoughts

Clearly Bayern has the better team. Even if they don't play with all the best players, they quality is way above Wolfsburg's. Together with the home advantage, there is nearly no doubt to who is going to advance to the final. A player to watch is Wolfsburg's Arnold. He is only 18 years old and played a superb season in the U19. It will be his fourth match with the A team. His Goalimpact is very high, so I'm confident he will manage to settle in Bundesliga.

Odds

The expected result, assuming an open and offensive play, is 3.075 : 1.407. This implies the following odds.

Goalimpact Betfair
Bayern 83,1% 84,2%
x 7,4% 11,0%
Wolfsburg 9,5% 4,7%

Goalimpact is somewhat more optimistic about Wolfsburg's chances than the betting markets. This results mainly from a lower probability of a draw as offensive play is assumed and that suits Bayern better than Wolfsburg.