DFB-Pokal: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Borussia Dortmund


Eintracht Frankfurt

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Kevin Trapp111.3111.323.6Deutschland [U21]14813608
Marco Russ95.099.628.523619643
Carlos Zambrano103.9107.924.6Peru13111622
Constant Djakpa99.5102.327.31238856
Sebastian Jung120.1127.623.6Deutschland [U21]20318188
Alexander Madlung91.5108.231.6Deutschland [U21]30020907
Alexander Meier89.0101.931.1Deutschland [U21]32626272
Johannes Flum100.5100.826.220915702
Sebastian Rode107.2116.123.3Deutschland [U21]14411768
Václav Kadlec118.8136.621.7Tschechien18112272
Bench
Felix Wiedwald94.494.423.9928553
Jan Rosenthal97.8101.727.8Deutschland [U21]18412671
Takashi Inui107.8108.825.7Japan14511634
Martin Lanig100.0105.229.626417883
Stephan Schröck110.1113.227.4Philippinen22313829
Tobias Weis112.1116.728.520014650
Joselu93.099.323.8Spanien [U19]764648


Borussia Dortmund

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Roman Weidenfeller124.8124.833.539436387
Manuel Friedrich94.7129.534.4Deutschland40735758
Sokratis Papastathopoulos105.3106.225.7Griechenland21917765
Lukasz Piszczek130.7135.428.7Polen24419306
Marcel Schmelzer143.1143.226.0Deutschland23820600
Sebastian Kehl106.7137.634.0Deutschland41933790
Henrikh Mkhitaryan127.2129.925.0Armenien19016004
Nuri Sahin127.2128.825.4Türkei26720316
Kevin Großkreutz131.2132.525.5Deutschland [U21]29122597
Robert Lewandowski141.6143.125.4Polen26220756
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang110.3114.124.6Gabun21515588
Bench
Mitchell Langerak110.1110.125.4554967
Marian Sarr76.5118.719.0Deutschland [U19]443499
Jonas Hofmann103.6122.621.6Deutschland [U21]14410182
Miloš Jojic101.9118.321.8Serbien [U21]573849
Oliver Kirch82.398.231.421416680
Julian Schieber114.8117.725.0Deutschland [U21]1708904
Marvin Ducksch97.4129.419.9Deutschland [U17]865743


Prediction: Final Standings of Bundesliga 2013/2014

The fun part of analysis, at least to me, is to make predictions. Since the new season starts next week, I'll try to predict the final standings at the end of the season with my algorithm.

Most predictions algorithms out there are evaluating the teams' playing strength based on the performance in the previous seasons. As the team is the atomic structure in these, they can't take easily new transfers into account. Goalimpact is evaluating players and thus can, in principle, take team changes due to transfers into account. However, it causes other headaches. Most teams have 22 or more players to choose from, but some, often even many, of them will only get few minutes playing time in a season. A team's playing strength is mainly based on subset of the players, maybe 15 or 16 players.

If I'm going to predict team results without knowing the XI that actual plays, I have to guess the players that will be part of the game. In this case I even need to guess the players that will mostly influence a team over the whole season. This can get very subjective quickly. My usual way around this issue is to use minute weighed average values from past games. This works quite well during a season, but I can't calculate this before the season even started. All newly bought players obviously didn't get any playing time yet and thus would get a weight of zero. My prediction would be based on a distorted estimate of the team composition.

An alternative approach, I considered, was to use the starting eleven predicted by LigaInsider. They provide quite accurate predictions for each match day in Bundesliga. The predicted starting XI for Werder Bremen is for example.


However, this has some other disadvantages. The estimate is for the next match day only. It may or may not be a good prediction for the main XI of the entire season. The main XI will be vague to some extend that early in a season in any case. Probably even the trainer will not now for sure which players will get how much playing time over the season. They are likely to have a rough idea and the have their core of six to eight players fix, but too many things are not projectable. So even though LigaInsider is doing a great job, they can't possibly be correct, independently of which XI they pick. Actually they don't even try this. As they pick the likely players for the next match only, some players are excluded because they suffer from a minor illness. Maybe a prediction for the XI of the season would still include them.

To get around the need to pick players, in the following prediction, I just use the average of all players that have been nominated for the first team as of now. Doing so, will cause a downward bias in the estimates of the team's Goalimpacts. This stems from the fact that the players actually playing in most cases are the players with higher Goalimpacts. The hope would be that the bias is about equal for all teams, but this is not the case. Some teams have a strong core team, but less strong players otherwise. Some teams, in contrast, have rather evenly distributed Goalimpacts over all 22 players. So, unfortunately, I'll have a bias due to this averaging, but I think it is still the best way to avoid introducing arbitrary selections of players. And, I admit, It has the charm of being easily done.

So this is the table with the predicted final standings for Bundesliga this season.

No. Team
Goalimpact
Points
Goal Diff
Bwin Rank
ClubElo
Euro Club
Index
Last Year
1 Bayern München 139,8 84,7 +64,8
1
1
1
1
2 Borussia Dortmund 119,8 60,2 +23,1
2
2
2
2
3 FC Schalke 04 119,0 59,2 +21,3
3
4
4
4
4 Bayer Leverkusen 113,8 52,9 +10,6
4
3
3
3
5 VfL Wolfsburg 112,3 50,9 +7,3
5
7
8
11
6 VfB Stuttgart 107,5 45,0 -2,8
6
13
7
12
7 Hannover 96 106,1 43,4 -5,6
10
8
6
9
8 1. FSV Mainz 05 105,7 42,9 -6,4
13
11
11
13
9 Bor. Mönchengladbach 105,6 42,7 -6,7
6
6
5
8
10 Hertha BSC 105,4 42,5 -7,1
12
14
13
(17)
11 1899 Hoffenheim 105,3 42,4 -7,3
13
16
16
16
12 Eintracht Braunschweig 105,0 42,0 -7,9
18
18
18
(18)
13 SC Freiburg 104,6 41,5 -8,8
13
5
9
5
14 Hamburger SV 103,6 40,3 -10,8
8
10
10
7
15 1. FC Nürnberg 103,5 40,2 -11,0
16
9
12
10
16 Werder Bremen 101,2 37,4 -15,8
11
17
15
14
17 Eintracht Frankfurt 100,7 36,8 -16,8
9
12
14
6
18 FC Augsburg 99,2 35,0 -19,9
17
15
17
15

As comparison, I added the estimated rank implied in the Bwin odds and the current rank according to ClubElo and the Euro Club Index. The first four teams are identical in all predictions. This doesn't come as a surprise as they are identical to the first four of the last season. The only deviation here is that Bwin and Goalimpact put Schalke above Leverkusen while ClubElo and the Euro Club Index kept the order of last season. But opinions diverge a lot on many of the other league ranks.

Goalimpact predicts Wolfsburg to finish 5th and Stuttgart 6th. Interestingly, this is identical to the predictions by Bwin although both teams where nowhere close to such a good rank in the previous season. The Euro Club Index has a similar rank for both. But it sees Hanover and Mönchengladbach stronger and thus the two are on 7 and 8. ClubElo share the view of a strong Wolfsburg, albeit on rank 7, but predicts Stuttgart to finish even below last year's disappointing rank 12.

All three statistic measures see Hanover finishing slightly higher than previous year on tank 6 to 8, but bwin puts them a rank lower on 10. Similarly all statistic based predictions see Mainz heading to a better season than last year's rank 13. Goalimpact is the most optimistic with rank 8, the other put Mainz on 11. Bwin sees no improvement to last year.

The prediction of newly relegated teams is particularly difficult, because they played few games, if any, against the other teams last season. The difference between the leagues is significant and many new teams face relegation just the next season again. This is, in fact, the prediction for Eintracht Braunschweig. ClubElo, the Euro Club Index, and Bwin see them as clear number 18. If you look at score values and odds, they are predicted to be the last by quite a margin. Goalimpact is more optimistic here and ranks them on 12. There first eleven is not outstanding here either, but the other players are not much worse than the team's stars. It might be that Goalimpact is biased upwards here. The other fresh relegated team, Hertha BSC Berlin, is predicted to be save in the middle of the table by all sources. They should end up between rank 10 (GI) and 14 (ClubElo).

Looking at the lower end of the table, Goalimpact predicts Bremen, Frankfurt and Augsburg as relegated teams. Especially, Frankfurt is disputed by the other approaches. They all predict a lower rank the last year's rank 6, too, but they see Frankfurt to end in the nowhere land between rank 9 and 14. Bremen is as a relegation candidate by the club-based algorithms, too. Bwin is here much more optimistic and predicts rank 11. Augsburg is a likely relegation team by all rankings. ClubElo is the last spark of hope by predicting Augsburg to repeat last year's rank 15. 1899 Hoffenheim is predicted to be relegated by both of the club-based approaches. Goalimpact and Bwin, in contrast, both predict a final rank in the middle of the table (11-13).

We will only know with hindsight which prediction was closed to reality. However, we can have short look into the predictions now already by looking into the correlations.

Goalimpact
Bwin Rank
ClubElo
Euro Club
Index
Last Year
Goalimpact
100%
78%
69%
83%
50%
Bwin Rank
100%
75%
87%
75%
ClubElo
100%
92%
91%
Euro Club Index
100%
82%
Last Year
100%

We can see that the two club-based measures are very highly correlated (92%) and also show comparably high correlations to the last year's ranks (91% and 82%). The lower the correlation is to the last years final rank, the braver (but not necessarily better) is the prediction. ClubElo's 91% makes it close to the naive estimation that everything stays as it was. Bwin (75%) and Goalimpact (50%) were bolder in moving away from last year's standings. If that was too bold, we will now in one year from now.

Hall Of Fame - The Best Football Players of All Time

So far, only 65 players in history managed to have a Goalimpact of more than 160. Here is the full list in order of entry.

NumberDate of EntryNameTeam
104/1976Gerd MüllerBayern München
204/1976Franz BeckenbauerBayern München
312/1976Sepp MaierBayern München
404/1980Berti VogtsBor. Mönchengladbach
505/1981Paul BreitnerBayern München
605/1985Felix MagathHamburger SV
706/1985Bodo RudwaleitBFC Dynamo
804/1986Dieter HoeneßBayern München
906/1986Klaus AugenthalerBayern München
1012/1986Norbert TrieloffBFC Dynamo
1105/1987Erich ObermayerAustria Wien
1206/1987Manfred KaltzHamburger SV
1312/1987Uli SteinEintracht Frankfurt
1406/1988Herbert ProhaskaAustria Wien
1504/1990Hans PflüglerBayern München
1611/1993ZubizarretaFC Barcelona
1710/1994Bernd SchusterBayer Leverkusen
1806/1995Leo LainerRB Salzburg
1910/1997SanchisReal Madrid
2010/1998Lothar MatthäusBayern München
2104/2002Andreas MöllerFC Schalke 04
2203/2003Oliver KahnBayern München
2302/2006Patrick VieiraJuventus
2403/2006Ryan GiggsManchester United
2510/2006Claude MakeleleChelsea FC
2611/2006Paul ScholesManchester United
2712/2006Gary NevilleManchester United
2810/2007Luis FigoInter
2912/2008Thierry HenryFC Barcelona
3012/2008John TerryChelsea FC
3102/2009Edwin van der SarManchester United
3210/2009PuyolFC Barcelona
3310/2009XaviFC Barcelona
3411/2009Frank LampardChelsea FC
3503/2010Iker CasillasReal Madrid
3606/2010Ashley ColeChelsea FC
3706/2010Victor ValdesFC Barcelona
3806/2010Petr CechChelsea FC
3907/2010Lionel MessiFC Barcelona
4011/2010Cristiano RonaldoReal Madrid
4112/2010Bastian SchweinsteigerBayern München
4203/2011Alessandro NestaAC Milan
4304/2011Ricardo CarvalhoReal Madrid
4405/2011Dani AlvesFC Barcelona
4507/2011Philipp LahmBayern München
4609/2011IniestaFC Barcelona
4710/2011Wayne RooneyManchester United
4810/2011Xabi AlonsoReal Madrid
4911/2011KakaReal Madrid
5011/2011BusquetsFC Barcelona
5112/2011Cesc FabregasFC Barcelona
5202/2012LucioInter
5303/2012Patrice EvraManchester United
5405/2012Mesut ÖzilReal Madrid
5505/2012PedroFC Barcelona
5606/2012ArbeloaReal Madrid
5708/2012PiqueFC Barcelona
5808/2012Sergio RamosReal Madrid
5910/2012Mark van BommelPSV Eindhoven
6012/2012Thomas MüllerBayern München
6112/2012AlexParis Saint-Germain
6212/2012Zlatan IbrahimovicParis Saint-Germain
6303/2013Arjen RobbenBayern München
6404/2013Javier MascheranoFC Barcelona
6505/2013Manuel NeuerBayern München


Goalimpact allows, in principle, for inter-temporal comparison. However, we can see that today more player per year enter the list than in the 1990s and before. One reason for this is the emergence of more leagues in my database and a resulting score inflation. Another reason is the higher amount of games played by a single player today as compared to the 'good old times'. This makes the job easier for the algorithm to differentiate between good and bad players and good players therefore can easier reach higher values.

I like historical analysis and if I come around data from the old times that are missing at the moment, I'll try to add them to my database and update this list. One league that comes to mind is the Dutch Eredivisie. I have it only from 2003 onward. Johan Cruyff was at his time in he top 30 of the players all along, but could never reach 160+ because I recorded too few minutes of him and his scored therefore suffered from the regression to the mean. I'd love to add his time at Ajax.

Eintrach Frankfurt: Einschätzung des Kaders

Ich habe nicht viel Zeit zu bloggen, aber wollte kurz die Einschätzung von Eintracht Frankfurt posten.


Name Score
Benjamin Köhler 163,3
Karim Matmour 161,8
Carlos Augusto Zambrano Ochandarte 138,0
Kevin Trapp 137,7
PLATZ 4 BUNDESLIGA 137,4
Erwin Hoffer 137,2
Martin Amedick 135,1
Oka Nikolov 129,2
Sebastian Jung 128,7
PLATZ 6 BUNDESLIGA 125,8
Takashi Inui 123,2
Olivier Occean 122,4
Pirmin Schwegler 121,5
PLATZ 16 BUNDESLIGA 119,5
Stefan Aigner 119,0
PLATZ 3 ZWEITE LIGA 118,7
Stefano Celozzi 117,3
Anderson Soares de Oliveira 117,2
Martin Lanig 116,9
Erik Wille 116,3
Alexander Meier 114,4
Dorge Kouemaha 112,9
Julian Dudda 110,9
Vadim Sergeievich Demidov 109,9
Aykut Özer 108,4
Sonny Kittel 108,2
Constant Tohouri Zahoui Djakpa 106,2
Sebastian Rode 106,0
Bastian Oczipka 105,9
PLATZ 16 ZWEITE LIGA 105,7
Heiko Butscher 104,7
Alexander Hien 103,7
Robert Douglas Friend 103,7
Marc Stendera 102,2
Marc-Oliver Kempf 100,2

Was auffällt ist, dass alle Spieler eine Score von über 100 haben. Das hat bislang keiner der hier untersuchten Kader und ich denke, dass dies ein positives Zeichen in Richtung Nachhaltigkeit des aktuellen Frankfurter Erfolges ist.

Es verwundert etwas, dass Benjamin Köhler als stärkstes eingeschätzt wird. Er war Jahre lang Leistungsträger im Verein ist aber nun schon 32 und wurde diese Saison praktisch nur eine Halbzeit im Pokal eingesetzt. Man kann wohl davon ausgehen, dass der Score eher alte als aktuelle Spielstärke widerspiegelt - zumindest sieht Veh das wohl so und gibt Inui den Vorzug, der auch in guter Form ist.

Neu-Nationalspieler Jung wird deutlich stärker eingeschätzt als Sebastian Rode. Letzterer konnte trotz guter Kritiken und angeblichen Interesse von Top-Clubs seinen GoalImpact noch nicht unter Beweis stellen.

Endtabelle Bundesliga 2012/2013

Wie die Endtabelle genau aussehen wird, dass weiß ich natürlich auch nicht und das ist ja auch der Grund, warum Fußball so spannend ist. Aber ich habe einen Algorithmus geschrieben, mit dem ich hier eine Prognose wage.


1 Bayern München
2 Borussia Dortmund
3FC Schalke 04
4 Bayer Leverkusen
5 Eintracht Frankfurt
6 Hannover 96
7 1. FSV Mainz 05
8 Bor. Mönchengladbach
9 VfB Stuttgart
10 SC Freiburg
11 Werder Bremen
12 VfL Wolfsburg
13 Fortuna Düsseldorf
14 1. FC Nürnberg
15 Hamburger SV
16 SpVgg Greuther Fürth
17 1899 Hoffenheim
18 FC Augsburg

Grundlage für diese Tabelle ist die Spielstärke der besten 20 Spieler in dem Kader der jeweiligen Mannschaft. Bisher bereits erzielte Punkte sind nicht eingeflossen.

Die Kader sind unterschiedlich besetzt. Einige Mannschaften haben eine gute 1. Elf, aber sind schwächer dahinter aufgestellt. Andere haben gleichmäßiger eingekauft. Letztere sind zwar weniger anfällig für Verletzungspech, aber erstere haben die Chance nach oben hin zu überraschen, wenn sie weitgehend mit der ersten Elf spielen können.