Everton FC vs VfL Wolfsburg: Lineups

The starting XIs are about equal if only a slight advantage for Wolfsburg. But the home field advantage fives Everton the edge,

Everton FC: 48.9%
Draw: 28.9%
VfL Wolfsburg: 22.3%

Everton FC

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Steven Naismith105.7111.428.0Schottland31521461
Romelu Lukaku106.9123.221.3Belgien20313638
Tim Howard149.8150.935.5USA48244950
Seamus Coleman108.9109.126.1Irland17614190
Gareth Barry115.4147.833.5England66057055
James McCarthy92.397.623.8Irland22919746
Kevin Mirallas114.8117.526.9Belgien32820358
Aiden McGeady111.8118.028.4Irland36726695
Leighton Baines112.6120.029.8England45439678
John Stones100.4122.920.3England [U21]644996
Phil Jagielka111.6136.832.0England50345209
Average111.8123.227.8
Bench
Christian Atsu104.3114.022.7Ghana1006620
Leon Osman93.1124.433.3England40732451
Darron Gibson107.4109.926.8Irland1389281
Antolín Alcaraz91.6117.132.1Paraguay20518477
Muhamed Bešic110.3122.722.0Bosnien-Herzegowina12710964
Joel97.3128.024.2413807
Samuel Eto'o128.7160.933.5Kamerun63353374
Average104.7125.327.8


VfL Wolfsburg

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Ivica Olic99.8143.535.0Kroatien35624016
Kevin De Bruyne107.1114.823.2Belgien18614173
Sebastian Jung122.7126.824.2Deutschland [U21]24521984
Diego Benaglio116.4119.431.0Schweiz34932271
Daniel Caligiuri111.3113.126.720013303
Luiz Gustavo137.3140.627.1Brasilien25420097
Naldo115.2139.932.0Brasilien33229967
Maximilian Arnold113.2135.620.3Deutschland [U21]1129335
Ricardo Rodríguez105.5117.722.0Schweiz14812843
Robin Knoche119.6130.822.3Deutschland [U21]16214083
Junior Malanda98.6122.520.0Belgien [U21]816488
Average113.3127.725.8
Bench
Nicklas Bendtner124.8126.626.7Dänemark29618325
Josuha Guilavogui109.1113.823.9Frankreich1339784
Timm Klose107.0107.926.3Schweiz14112040
Aaron Hunt98.0103.828.0Deutschland [U21]33223463
Max Grün111.4118.127.411911065
Marcel Schäfer99.5109.230.3Deutschland36130493
Mateusz Klich98.0102.024.3Polen1269787
Average106.8111.626.7



Partizan Belgrad vs Tottenham Hotspur

Tottemham has the better starting XI, but due to the home field advantage Partizan is expected to win.

Partizan: 46.9%
Draw: 29.4%
Tottenham Hotspur: 23.8%

Partizan

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Miroslav Vulicevic125.9132.929.319217479
Vojislav Stankovic118.0120.826.9998175
Milan Lukac111.0116.128.91059707
Lazar Cirkovic93.7105.822.0Serbien [U21]504269
Nikola Drincic87.094.630.0Montenegro21018261
Vladimir Volkov116.4122.528.3Montenegro1179461
Danilo Pantic88.1134.617.8Serbien [U19]21774
Branko Ilic96.8118.031.6Slowenien1078684
Petar Grbic102.1102.326.1Montenegro633536
Danko Lazovic112.0130.931.3Serbien34921788
Saša Ilic88.6151.236.7Serbien35024348
Average103.6120.928.1
Bench
Filip Kljaji?86.3118.324.1585334
Andrija Živkovi?101.0146.418.2Serbien [U19]382583
Nemanja Petrovi?105.4116.222.3Serbien [U21]181323
Nikola Ninkovi?105.6132.919.7Serbien [U21]743918
Ismael Fofana102.4102.426.0231381
Predrag Luka105.0105.826.314310397
Saša Markovi?106.1112.623.5Serbien [U21]1197826
Average101.7119.222.9


Tottenham Hotspur

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Paulinho108.7109.026.1Brasilien17814143
Ben Davies96.9112.921.3Wales978409
Federico Fazio112.6116.927.5Argentinien Olymp.20816927
Kyle Naughton107.1107.525.8England [U21]22118966
Aaron Lennon113.5117.527.4England40729857
Jan Vertonghen143.6147.627.3Belgien35231315
Hugo Lloris124.0130.427.7Frankreich38435541
Harry Kane102.4119.921.1England [U21]1106335
Andros Townsend96.9104.723.2England15810437
Nabil Bentaleb94.5121.119.8Algerien362653
Benjamin Stambouli96.8101.224.1Frankreich [U21]1249186
Average108.8117.224.7
Bench
Étienne Capoue110.7111.126.2Frankreich21318317
Erik Lamela95.1105.422.5Argentinien1309618
Vlad Chiriches116.9119.624.8Rumänien15413386
Christian Eriksen128.5138.622.6Dänemark21216421
Eric Dier104.0124.320.7England [U21]594589
Soldado114.6121.629.3Spanien31322173
Michel Vorm110.1113.230.8Niederlande27024769
Average111.4119.125.3



Backtesting: Europa League Round Last 16

Let's see howe our prediction of the round of last 16 worked. He predicted the green clubs to advance.

AZ Alkmaar 102.5 - Anzhi Makhachkala 95.5
PFC Ludogorets Razgrad 112.7 - Valencia CF 104.3
FC Porto 122.1 - SSC Napoli 115.1
Olympique Lyon 103.1 - Viktoria Plzeň 109.1
Sevilla FC 107.7 - Real Betis 93.3
Tottenham Hotspur 115.4 - SL Benfica 115.5
FC Basel 111.0 - RB Salzburg 122.0
Juventus 122.1 - ACF Fiorentina 105.1

Only five out of eight pairs correct. We have done better in the past. Put the difference in team quality is much lower now and hence the outcome is more difficult to predict. On average, the winner had 2.5 Goalimpact points more than the losing team. This indicates that despite the close team strength, there is explanatory power in our algorithm.

Now let's see how the betting markets fared.

AZ Alkmaar 41 - Anzhi Makhachkala 81.0
PFC Ludogorets Razgrad 41 - Valencia CF 13.0
FC Porto 21 - SSC Napoli 7.5
Olympique Lyon 41 - Viktoria Plzeň 51.0
Sevilla FC 21 - Real Betis 34.0
Tottenham Hotspur 8 - SL Benfica 11.0
FC Basel 31 - RB Salzburg 8.0
Juventus 3.25 - ACF Fiorentina 13.0

They also have only five pairs correct. Both we and Bwin predicted Salzburg to advance and hence, we'd call the win of Basel the biggest surprise. And following the game, indeed the outcome was unlucky for Salzburg with respect to the missed chances, despite Basel earned the win by a sound defensive strategy.

From the remain clubs, according to us either Porto or Juventus will win the cup, and Benfica has some chances, too. According to the betting markets, it will be Juve and nobody else. Benfica and Porto are the runner ups, but already with distinctly lower chances.

Prediction: Europa League Round Last 16

The round of last 32 of predicted very well. Let's look what the future brings to us in the next round.

AZ Alkmaar 102.5 - Anzhi Makhachkala 95.5
PFC Ludogorets Razgrad 112.7 - Valencia CF 104.3
FC Porto 122.1 - SSC Napoli 115.1
Olympique Lyon 103.1 - Viktoria Plzeň 109.1
Sevilla FC 107.7 - Real Betis 93.3
Tottenham Hotspur 115.4 - SL Benfica 115.5
FC Basel 111.0 - RB Salzburg 122.0
Juventus 122.1 - ACF Fiorentina 105.1

Closest call is Spurs against Benfica. I'd go for a draw if that would be possible. Porto vs Napoli will also be a struggle between two title contenders.

Bwin has a different view on some matches. The numbers in the following table are the odds to win the competition. I take that as (inverse) measure of team quality.

AZ Alkmaar 41 - Anzhi Makhachkala 81.0
PFC Ludogorets Razgrad 41 - Valencia CF 13.0
FC Porto 21 - SSC Napoli 7.5
Olympique Lyon 41 - Viktoria Plzeň 51.0
Sevilla FC 21 - Real Betis 34.0
Tottenham Hotspur 8 - SL Benfica 11.0
FC Basel 31 - RB Salzburg 8.0
Juventus 3.25 - ACF Fiorentina 13.0

I tend to agree with bwin on Razgrad. But then again, my personal record of betting without support of algorithms is terrible. So maybe, math is right yet again.

Backtesting: Europa League Round of Last 32

Just forecasting the future is only half of the fun. The real excitement comes with backtesting which of the predictions turned out to be true or false. Let's check our predictions on the Europa League round of last 32.

Anzhi Makhachkala 95.5  - KRC Genk 102.4
Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk 112.2  - Tottenham Hotspur 115.4
Juventus 122.1  - Trabzonspor 106.4
Chernomorets Odessa 98.9  - Olympique Lyon 103.1
Esbjerg fB 96.3  - ACF Fiorentina 105.1
Dinamo Kiev 118.7  - Valencia CF 104.3
PAOK Saloniki 104.2  - SL Benfica 115.5
Slovan Liberec 99.3  - AZ Alkmaar 102.5
Real Betis 93.3  - Rubin Kazan 106.7
Swansea City 101.5  - SSC Napoli 115.1
NK Maribor 104.6  - Sevilla FC 107.7
Viktoria Plzen 109.1  - Shakhtar Donetsk 118.3
Lazio Roma 102.8  - PFC Ludogorets Razgrad 112.7
AFC Ajax 114.1  - RB Salzburg 122.0
Maccabi Tel Aviv #NV  - FC Basel 111.0 n.a.
FC Porto 122.1  - Eintracht Frankfurt 106.8

Only four out of 15 ties saw the favorite being eliminated. The biggest surprises were Valencia defeating Kiev and Real Betis beating Rubin Kazan. And no, Ajax's defeat by Salzburg was no surprise and so wasn't the elimination of Lazio Roma by PFC Ludogorets Razgrad. The winner had, on average, 3.4 more Goalimpact than the loser, indicating the discriminatory power of the algorithm.

All title contenders, Juventus, Porto and Salzburg, are still in the competition. The two top runners up, Kiev and Donetsk, were eliminated. Now The Spurs, SL Benfica and SSC Napoli are the strongest teams after the favorite three.

Europa League: Round of Last 32

Just quickly, here are our predictions for advancing to the Round of last 16 in the Europa League. Looks reasonable, just we are unsure about Razgrad. The rating looks way too high. Probably the Bulgarian league is not yet sufficiently integrated into the Goalimpact database. We need more international games or transfers to get that right. Due to a database error we currently can't compute the rating of Maccabi Tel Aviv, so that is left out.

Anzhi Makhachkala 95.5  - KRC Genk 102.4
Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk 112.2  - Tottenham Hotspur 115.4
Juventus 122.1  - Trabzonspor 106.4
Chernomorets Odessa 98.9  - Olympique Lyon 103.1
Esbjerg fB 96.3  - ACF Fiorentina 105.1
Dinamo Kiev 118.7  - Valencia CF 104.3
PAOK Saloniki 104.2  - SL Benfica 115.5
Slovan Liberec 99.3  - AZ Alkmaar 102.5
Real Betis 93.3  - Rubin Kazan 106.7
Swansea City 101.5  - SSC Napoli 115.1
NK Maribor 104.6  - Sevilla FC 107.7
Viktoria Plzen 109.1  - Shakhtar Donetsk 118.3
Lazio Roma 102.8  - PFC Ludogorets Razgrad 112.7
AFC Ajax 114.1  - RB Salzburg 122.0
Maccabi Tel Aviv #NV  - FC Basel 111.0
FC Porto 122.1  - Eintracht Frankfurt 106.8

Update:
Razgrad won 1:0 in Rome. Maybe the rating is OK after all?