I see ManU and Shakhtar as favorites with Leverkusen having some chances on rank 2. Given the odds on the betting markets, this seems uncontroversial although the distance of Sociedad is smaller there.
Again the order is in line with the betting markets. However, according to Goalimpact, Galatasaray's chances to advance instead of Juventus are much bigger than what is implied in the odds.
PSG is uncontroversial the top favorite in this group. Goalimpact picked RSC as second, which is heavily disputed by the betting pundits which rank SL Benfica much higher. They even see Anderlecht worse than Olympiakos. Update: After the transfer window closed, RSC Anderlecht dropped to 117, now well behind Benfica.
The top two are very uncontroversial. Plzen and Moskva have the opposite order on the betting markets.
|FC Schalke 04||120,8||99,7||144,3|
Same order on the betting markets. Finally, again. Schalke expected to advance, but Basel may turn out to be a stumbling block.
Again same order and about the same implied distances, too. Arsenal and Dortmund will fight for the first group place and Napoli may be a bad surprise for the other one of them. The Özil transfer is not yet reflected in Arsenal's Goalimpact. It is likely to raise it two or three points, bringing it closer to Dortmund. Update: In September the GI of Dortmund dropped significantly due to injuries. Arsenal that gained a bit because of Özil now on top spot.
|Zenit St. Petersburg||122,8||93,8||139,8|
Both according to the betting markets and Goalimpact the most uncertain outcome will be in this group. All teams are about as good as the others with Porto sticking a bit on the upper side and Austria on the lower side. The betting markets make a firmer statement here, putting Porto and Atletico on 1 and 2, Zenit with good chances to take the place of one of them. Austria, on the other hand, is seen only with low chances to advance. According to Goalimpact, the chances are low, but not that marginal. Update: After the transfer window closed, Ateltico gained one point and is now in front of Zenit.
I like that prediction, because it again contradicts the betting markets. Ajax has, according to Goalimpact, good chances to advance, while they are only remote if you believe in the rational of the bettors. Update: Redoing the analysis after the transfer window closed, let Ajax drop to 119, only narrowly in front of AC Milan.