We take the opportunity and check if this is the best choice according to Goalimpact, too. If you want to know how our rating works on goalkeepers, we wrote the concept down here. In short, we evaluate the average goal difference in games with the keeper as compared to games without and correct this result for many many factors such as team mate and opponent strength, home field advantage and others. Wait, you will say. My team always plays with the same keeper. There is no such thing as a "game without". In order to circumvent this, there are many precautions taken, most of all we take the information of all games of a players career and not only one season.
If we plot the current Goalimpact on the x-axis and the expected career peak value "PeakGI" on the y-axis, we obtain a chart with all currently excellent keepers on the right-hand side and all very talented keepers on the upper part.
|All German professional goalkeepers. Keepers on the short list for the national|
team are marked orange. Most of them are either very good and have a Goalimpact
of 140+ or are a prospect of having one later in their career.
As we can see, Manuel Neuer is in the top right corner, basically playing in his own league. Roman Weidenfeller is the second best keeper but already considerably behind Neuer's Goalimpact. Moreover, he is already at his peak and hence is unlikely to improve from here on. He himself declared the European Championship as a "welcome end" to his career in the national team.
The chart enables us to rate the contenders in comparison to the former two. They are all significantly weaker in their current performance, but this is due to their young age. If we compare the PeakGIs, we see that all of them but Ralf Fährmann are in the range spanned by Weidenfeller and Neuer. Trapp and Baumann are very good keepers that are on their way to become as successful as Weidenfeller, but that may not be enough to secure a place in the future national team. The reason is that the other contenders, Leno, ter Stegen and Horn, are more talented and are expected to overtake Trapp and Baumann in Goalimpact eventually. Ralf Fährmann is currently not expected to peak above 140 and hence high enough to join the national team.
All in all, Goalimpact would have selected a very similar set of goalkeepers as a mix of talents and experienced players. Only exception is that we would prefer Jens Grahl over Ralf Fährmann. And then there are some more talents out there that didn't make it to a major league yet and were probably not considered by Köppke and Löw for that reason. However, given their talent they are likely to move to higher leagues soon.
Beside the named players, there are some other even younger goalkeepers leaving the youth development centers that are expected to peak in the relevant range of 140 to 160. Germany, you will keep your tradition of good goalkeeping for at least one more player generation.