Italy vs. Costa Rica: 0:1


Italy

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Gianluigi Buffon150.0150.036.3Juventus72066681
Giorgio Chiellini136.8142.929.8Juventus37934280
Matteo Darmian102.4104.225.5Torino FC15012557
Ignazio Abate101.0104.827.6AC Milan24718857
Andrea Barzagli113.4141.233.1Juventus45140754
Thiago Motta107.8128.831.8Paris Saint-Germain34324367
Antonio Candreva95.098.127.3Lazio Roma25618382
Claudio Marchisio117.6122.828.3Juventus29323739
Daniele De Rossi132.1145.530.8AS Roma49141517
Andrea Pirlo122.6165.635.0Juventus70056261
Mario Balotelli112.3120.023.8AC Milan24115496
Average117.4129.429.9
Bench
Lorenzo Insigne121.0132.123.0SSC Napoli1419712
Antonio Cassano96.4118.431.9Parma FC46933099
Alessio Cerci105.2107.426.8Torino FC16710876
Salvatore Sirigu119.6119.627.4Paris Saint-Germain22520910
Mattia Perin79.379.321.6Genoa CFC958727
Mattia De Sciglio101.2119.621.6AC Milan665722
Leonardo Bonucci125.0127.727.1Juventus26924029
Gabriel Paletta106.4111.628.3Parma FC25221763
Alberto Aquilani109.5115.729.9ACF Fiorentina32221141
Marco Parolo97.7103.529.3Parma FC18315870
Marco Verratti121.4140.221.6Paris Saint-Germain1429619
Ciro Immobile106.7112.524.3Torino FC1399710
Average107.5115.626.1


Costa Rica

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Keylor Navas96.996.927.5Levante UD14713579
Giancarlo González103.2103.926.3Columbus Crew736435
Michael Umaña85.4107.331.9CD Chivas918059
Óscar Duarte106.0109.525.0Club Brugge KV483976
Júnior Díaz107.9120.130.81. FSV Mainz 0519815776
Cristian Gamboa112.5117.324.6Rosenborg BK988692
Celso Borges110.4111.325.8AIK Solna20117668
Christian Bolaños101.5108.130.0FC Köbenhavn24918799
Yeltsin Tejeda98.4112.822.2131001
Joel Campbell110.6126.521.9Olympiakos Piräus1217725
Bryan Ruiz115.6121.028.8PSV Eindhoven29723106
Average104.4112.226.8
Bench
José Cubero101.4104.727.3CS Herediano251836
Randall Brenes92.0104.930.8CS Cartagines583087
Marcos Ureña103.4109.424.3Kuban Krasnodar441950
Patrick Pemberton100.8100.832.1LD Alajuelense201860
Daniel Cambronero93.193.128.4CS Herediano9837
Johnny Acosta100.9114.430.8LD Alajuelense292728
Dave Myrie101.2101.226.0CS Herediano8641
Waylon Francis100.2108.323.7Columbus Crew191733
Roy Miller106.1112.029.5New York RB17013788
Michael Barrantes101.1112.830.7Aalesunds FK13811310
Esteban Granados99.4104.828.6CS Herediano11777
Diego Calvo93.5103.823.2Valerenga IF452722
Average99.4105.828.0


England vs Italy: Goalimpacts of Lineups


England

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Joe Hart132.4132.427.1Manchester City33431143
Glen Johnson131.9138.029.8Liverpool FC39134572
Leighton Baines119.1125.029.5Everton FC44939213
Gary Cahill109.7115.028.4Chelsea FC34731580
Phil Jagielka114.1135.331.8Everton FC49844744
Steven Gerrard133.2165.434.0Liverpool FC72761030
Jordan Henderson121.6128.623.9Liverpool FC24619167
Raheem Sterling97.8135.119.5Liverpool FC956401
Daniel Sturridge124.3128.624.8Liverpool FC21112709
Wayne Rooney172.8178.128.6Manchester United57446202
Danny Welbeck109.1118.023.5Manchester United20213141
Average124.2136.327.4
Bench
Ben Foster89.489.431.2West Bromwich Albion24322568
Fraser Forster140.0140.026.2Celtic FC21519848
Chris Smalling113.4118.424.5Manchester United15712265
Phil Jones108.8122.922.3Manchester United15212267
Luke Shaw92.0136.318.9Southampton FC705877
Jack Wilshere112.0125.522.4Arsenal FC15811442
Frank Lampard120.9173.635.9Chelsea FC87374599
James Milner119.4124.728.4Manchester City51937338
Ross Barkley87.4114.720.5Everton FC865633
Rickie Lambert107.8132.132.3Southampton FC24821171
Adam Lallana119.6119.826.1Southampton FC25620564
Average110.1127.026.2


Italy

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Salvatore Sirigu119.6119.627.4Paris Saint-Germain22520910
Giorgio Chiellini136.8142.929.8Juventus37934280
Matteo Darmian102.4104.225.5Torino FC15012557
Andrea Barzagli113.4141.233.1Juventus45140754
Gabriel Paletta106.4111.628.3Parma FC25221763
Antonio Candreva95.098.127.3Lazio Roma25618382
Claudio Marchisio117.6122.828.3Juventus29323739
Daniele De Rossi132.1145.530.8AS Roma49141517
Andrea Pirlo122.6165.635.0Juventus70056261
Marco Verratti121.4140.221.6Paris Saint-Germain1429619
Mario Balotelli112.3120.023.8AC Milan24115496
Average116.3128.328.3
Bench
Mattia Perin79.379.321.6Genoa CFC958727
Ignazio Abate101.0104.827.6AC Milan24718857
Leonardo Bonucci125.0127.727.1Juventus26924029
Thiago Motta107.8128.831.8Paris Saint-Germain34324367
Alberto Aquilani109.5115.729.9ACF Fiorentina32221141
Marco Parolo97.7103.529.3Parma FC18315870
Lorenzo Insigne121.0132.123.0SSC Napoli1419712
Antonio Cassano96.4118.431.9Parma FC46933099
Alessio Cerci105.2107.426.8Torino FC16710876
Ciro Immobile106.7112.524.3Torino FC1399710
Average105.0113.027.3


Backtesting: Confederations Cup

Ultimately, the meaning of analysis is to either to improve or to predict. Being on the top-down side of analysis, my realm is the prediction of player performance and, based on this, team performance. Every prediction should be checked after the fact, so we can learn and improve.

Before the Confederations Cup I posted this ranking of national teams according to Goalimpact and other metrics. So how did they fare?


Betfair had all games right, just based on the odds of the World Cup (sic!) title. It was not entirely level playing field though, as Brazil's home advantage has been factored in into the odds while the other measures just rank the teams and thus got the final wrong. In all other games of Brazil, they would have been the favorite even without the home advantage.

However, we can still conclude that the cup was without any big surprises and was very predictable unless you use a very defunct scoring system such as the FIFA uses for their world ranking list. However, the market values published at transfermarkt.de are also not a perfect proxy for playing strength. Assuming transfermarkt.de publishes correct estimates of true market values, one must concluded that Mexican players are undervalued or Japanese overvalued.

Anyway, I'm content with Goalimpact's predictions. But the bar was low at this tournament. Everything but the final was right, so would I predict all the same? No! Of course not. Even if the predictions were correct, there is much to learn. Tahiti was rated far too good by Goalimpact and received a hefty downgrade as result of this tournament. This will also lead to a revaluation of historic Games of Tahiti with the new lower value and, in turn, common opponents will also experience a second order downgrade. Mainly this effects OFC countries. On the upside Brazil's performance raised the team's Goalimpact.

Italy's National Team at the Confed Cup

Italy has a strong first eleven at the Confederations Cup that consists of more than just Andrea Pirlo and Buffon. Players from the second row are not world-class, but certainly also good substitutions. As many play together in at Juventus or Milan, they will also profit from many automatic movements and understanding.

Player GoalImpact Age Team Games Minutes Position
Gianluigi Buffon 154,5 35,3 Juventus 659 61056 GK
Salvatore Sirigu 120,0 26,4 Paris Saint-Germain 176 16353 GK
Federico Marchetti 110,4 30,3 Lazio Roma 159 14541 GK
Giorgio Chiellini 136,6 28,8 Juventus 320 29015 DF
Andrea Barzagli 134,8 32,1 Juventus 410 37124 DF
Leonardo Bonucci 124,6 26,1 Juventus 215 19212 DF
Christian Maggio 119,9 31,3 SSC Napoli 294 24453 DF
Mattia De Sciglio 116,2 20,6 AC Milan 39 3336 DF
Davide Astori 97,7 26,4 Cagliari Calcio 144 12829 DF
Andrea Pirlo 153,2 34,0 Juventus 630 50305 MF
Daniele De Rossi 132,1 29,9 AS Roma 443 37270 MF
Claudio Marchisio 122,0 27,4 Juventus 237 19560 MF
Alberto Aquilani 120,8 28,9 ACF Fiorentina 266 16885 MF
Riccardo Montolivo 119,0 28,4 AC Milan 356 28845 MF
Stephan El Shaarawy 114,9 20,6 AC Milan 108 6957 MF
Ignazio Abate 113,3 26,6 AC Milan 211 16113 MF
Antonio Candreva 97,6 26,3 Lazio Roma 202 13962 MF
Mario Balotelli 135,9 22,8 AC Milan 186 11076 FW
Emanuele Giaccherini 113,0 28,1 Juventus 127 9139 FW
Alberto Gilardino 113,0 30,9 Bologna FC 513 37684 FW
Sebastian Giovinco 109,4 26,3 Juventus 207 13729 FW
Alessio Cerci 102,5 25,9 Torino FC 124 7509 FW
Alessandro Diamanti 89,2 30,1 Bologna FC 191 14128 FW