Japan vs Colombia: Goalimpact of Lineups


Japan

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Eiji Kawashima111.0111.031.2Standard Liege24322671
Atsuto Uchida122.8123.326.2FC Schalke 0423019932
Yuto Nagatomo109.5113.827.8Inter23119680
Maya Yoshida102.6103.425.8Southampton FC18316328
Keisuke Honda108.6113.528.0AC Milan19215540
Shinji Kagawa125.8128.625.2Manchester United16712567
Toshihiro Aoyama108.6113.728.3Sanfrecce Hiroshima17214157
Yasuyuki Konno94.5112.031.3Gamba Osaka16414347
Makoto Hasebe108.0117.330.31. FC Nürnberg21316213
Shinji Okazaki110.3115.428.21. FSV Mainz 0523217240
Yoshito Okubo89.3112.132.0Kawasaki Frontale22416655
Average108.3114.928.6
Bench
Shusaku Nishikawa101.9101.927.9Urawa Red Diamonds20318719
Shuichi Gonda101.1101.125.3FC Tokyo15414258
G?toku Sakai103.1113.323.3VfB Stuttgart16413324
Masahiko Inoha104.2109.728.8Jubilo Iwata16713693
Hiroki Sakai105.1111.524.2Hannover 961099144
Masato Morishige95.698.227.0FC Tokyo15013479
Yasuhito End?101.7137.434.3Gamba Osaka24021614
Hiroshi Kiyotake98.9103.824.61. FC Nürnberg18513984
Hotaru Yamaguchi103.8112.123.7Cerezo Osaka1128935
Yoichiro Kakitani102.5107.924.4Cerezo Osaka856891
Yuya Osako102.6109.324.0TSV 1860 München16811224
Manabu Saito97.7104.024.2Yokohama F. Marinos866069
Average101.5109.226.0


Colombia

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
David Ospina92.092.025.8OGC Nice23021046
Santiago Arias94.8108.522.4PSV Eindhoven1108454
Pablo Armero115.1119.027.6West Ham United21117335
Eder Álvarez Balanta97.1118.321.3River Plate423747
Carlos Valdes113.6119.329.0San Lorenzo20919242
Juan Cuadrado107.0107.126.0ACF Fiorentina16312532
Fredy Guarín114.3119.127.9Inter24314678
Alexander Mejia108.6109.025.9Atletico Nacional21518590
Juan Quintero87.8108.121.3FC Porto1265902
Adrián Ramos108.9114.128.3Hertha BSC21517633
Jackson Martínez120.1124.227.7FC Porto19616586
Average105.4112.625.7
Bench
Camilo Vargas102.6102.625.3Santa Fe15714542
Faryd Mondragón124.2124.242.9Deportivo Cali52548716
Cristián Zapata101.7105.827.7AC Milan28925962
Mario Yepes38.3122.338.4Atalanta43939328
Juan Zúñiga107.3112.628.5SSC Napoli22717435
Carlos Carbonero102.6110.123.8River Plate18915677
Carlos Sánchez92.998.128.3Elche CF23219223
Abel Aguilar93.899.729.4Toulouse FC23419283
James Rodríguez123.7135.222.9AS Monaco19714285
Teófilo Gutiérrez111.7117.329.0River Plate19315381
Víctor Ibarbo98.4105.224.0Cagliari Calcio20413387
Average99.7112.129.1


Odds based on starting XI: Japan: 35.8%, draw: 30.8%, Colombia: 33.3%

Japan vs Greece: Match Preview

Greece favorite by average Goalimpact. But Japan is quite good organized and may have some tactical advantage not reflected in the score.

Japan

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Eiji Kawashima111.0111.031.2Standard Liege24322671
Atsuto Uchida122.8123.326.2FC Schalke 0423019932
Yuto Nagatomo109.5113.827.8Inter23119680
Maya Yoshida102.6103.425.8Southampton FC18316328
Keisuke Honda108.6113.528.0AC Milan19215540
Yasuyuki Konno94.5112.031.3Gamba Osaka16414347
Hotaru Yamaguchi103.8112.123.7Cerezo Osaka1128935
Makoto Hasebe108.0117.330.31. FC Nürnberg21316213
Shinji Okazaki110.3115.428.21. FSV Mainz 0523217240
Yoshito Okubo89.3112.132.0Kawasaki Frontale22416655
Yuya Osako102.6109.324.0TSV 1860 München16811224
Average105.7113.028.0
Bench
Shusaku Nishikawa101.9101.927.9Urawa Red Diamonds20318719
Shuichi Gonda101.1101.125.3FC Tokyo15414258
G?toku Sakai103.1113.323.3VfB Stuttgart16413324
Masahiko Inoha104.2109.728.8Jubilo Iwata16713693
Hiroki Sakai105.1111.524.2Hannover 961099144
Masato Morishige95.698.227.0FC Tokyo15013479
Yasuhito End?101.7137.434.3Gamba Osaka24021614
Hiroshi Kiyotake98.9103.824.61. FC Nürnberg18513984
Shinji Kagawa125.8128.625.2Manchester United16712567
Toshihiro Aoyama108.6113.728.3Sanfrecce Hiroshima17214157
Yoichiro Kakitani102.5107.924.4Cerezo Osaka856891
Manabu Saito97.7104.024.2Yokohama F. Marinos866069
Average103.9110.926.5


Greece

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Orestis Karnezis97.397.328.9Granada CF857800
Kostas Manolas115.1126.323.0Olympiakos Piräus15513518
Vasilios Torosidis127.2132.829.0AS Roma24520280
Sokratis Papastathopoulos110.2110.326.0Borussia Dortmund24520101
José Holebas121.0127.229.9Olympiakos Piräus26020035
Ioannis Maniatis122.4126.527.7Olympiakos Piräus27223238
Panagiotis Giorgios Kone88.290.326.8Bologna FC22413777
Ioannis Fetfatzidis112.8122.023.4Genoa CFC1054947
Kostas Katsouranis99.9142.034.9PAOK Saloniki39133216
Georgios Samaras117.1122.829.3Celtic FC42725501
Kostas Mitroglou120.8121.326.3Fulham FC24314582
Average112.0119.927.7
Bench
Panagiotis Glykos103.1103.127.7PAOK Saloniki605528
Stefanos Kapino108.0108.020.2Panathinaikos625713
Giorgos Tzavellas113.1114.426.5PAOK Saloniki17715057
Vangelis Moras75.8102.332.8Hellas Verona18315441
Loukas Vyntra97.8126.833.3Levante UD30126691
Alexandros Tziolis97.7103.529.3Kayserispor21215630
Giorgios Karagounis68.9139.337.3Fulham FC41027549
Andreas Samaris113.9117.425.0Olympiakos Piräus1158624
Panagiotis Tachtsidis97.7107.523.3Torino FC1258173
Dimitrios Salpingidis113.2139.832.8PAOK Saloniki37327188
Lazaros Christodoulopoulos100.3103.927.4Bologna FC21012577
Theofanis Gekas91.7124.134.0Konyaspor28219801
Average98.4115.829.1


Ivory Coast vs Japan: Goalimpacts of Lineup


Ivory Coast

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Boubacar Barry94.794.734.4Sporting Lokeren34231270
Arthur Boka100.9116.931.2VfB Stuttgart37730463
Didier Zokora117.8147.533.5Trabzonspor57650525
Serge Aurier91.2110.921.4Toulouse FC12410555
Souleymane Bamba96.0101.829.4Trabzonspor21418789
Cheik Tioté100.4105.327.9Newcastle United25118799
Yaya Touré132.2147.231.1Manchester City44037058
Serey Die107.7113.729.6FC Basel18614950
Salomon Kalou142.7148.228.8Lille OSC44629790
Gervinho118.1120.627.0AS Roma33224636
Wilfried Bony129.4131.225.5Swansea City21316928
Average111.9121.629.1
Bench
Sylvain Gbohouo-1.0-1.0-1.0-1-1
Mandé Sayouba94.694.621.0Stabäk IF605495
Diarrassouba Viera101.9105.527.4Caykur Rizespor17015338
Kolo Touré134.9163.433.2Liverpool FC50142270
Jean-Daniel Akpa-Akpro94.9113.721.6Toulouse FC573817
Constant Djakpa98.1102.227.6Eintracht Frankfurt13810115
Mathis Bolly90.599.323.6Fortuna Düsseldorf844466
Didier Ya Konan100.6107.030.0Hannover 9621814546
Ismaël Diomande96.0113.221.8AS Saint-Etienne21898
Max Gradel108.9110.126.5AS Saint-Etienne16910559
Didier Drogba105.5161.836.3Galatasaray54542790
Giovanni Sio109.6112.425.2FC Basel1258477
Average94.5106.924.4


Japan

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Eiji Kawashima111.0111.031.2Standard Liege24322671
Atsuto Uchida122.8123.326.2FC Schalke 0423019932
Yuto Nagatomo109.5113.827.8Inter23119680
Maya Yoshida102.6103.425.8Southampton FC18316328
Keisuke Honda108.6113.528.0AC Milan19215540
Masato Morishige95.698.227.0FC Tokyo15013479
Shinji Kagawa125.8128.625.2Manchester United16712567
Hotaru Yamaguchi103.8112.123.7Cerezo Osaka1128935
Makoto Hasebe108.0117.330.31. FC Nürnberg21316213
Shinji Okazaki110.3115.428.21. FSV Mainz 0523217240
Yuya Osako102.6109.324.0TSV 1860 München16811224
Average109.1113.327.0
Bench
Shusaku Nishikawa101.9101.927.9Urawa Red Diamonds20318719
Shuichi Gonda101.1101.125.3FC Tokyo15414258
Gotoku Sakai103.1113.323.3VfB Stuttgart16413324
Masahiko Inoha104.2109.728.8Jubilo Iwata16713693
Hiroki Sakai105.1111.524.2Hannover 961099144
Yasuhito Endo101.7137.434.3Gamba Osaka24021614
Hiroshi Kiyotake98.9103.824.61. FC Nürnberg18513984
Toshihiro Aoyama108.6113.728.3Sanfrecce Hiroshima17214157
Yasuyuki Konno94.5112.031.3Gamba Osaka16414347
Yoichiro Kakitani102.5107.924.4Cerezo Osaka856891
Yoshito Okubo89.3112.132.0Kawasaki Frontale22416655
Manabu Saito97.7104.024.2Yokohama F. Marinos866069
Average100.7110.727.4


Backtesting: Confederations Cup

Ultimately, the meaning of analysis is to either to improve or to predict. Being on the top-down side of analysis, my realm is the prediction of player performance and, based on this, team performance. Every prediction should be checked after the fact, so we can learn and improve.

Before the Confederations Cup I posted this ranking of national teams according to Goalimpact and other metrics. So how did they fare?


Betfair had all games right, just based on the odds of the World Cup (sic!) title. It was not entirely level playing field though, as Brazil's home advantage has been factored in into the odds while the other measures just rank the teams and thus got the final wrong. In all other games of Brazil, they would have been the favorite even without the home advantage.

However, we can still conclude that the cup was without any big surprises and was very predictable unless you use a very defunct scoring system such as the FIFA uses for their world ranking list. However, the market values published at transfermarkt.de are also not a perfect proxy for playing strength. Assuming transfermarkt.de publishes correct estimates of true market values, one must concluded that Mexican players are undervalued or Japanese overvalued.

Anyway, I'm content with Goalimpact's predictions. But the bar was low at this tournament. Everything but the final was right, so would I predict all the same? No! Of course not. Even if the predictions were correct, there is much to learn. Tahiti was rated far too good by Goalimpact and received a hefty downgrade as result of this tournament. This will also lead to a revaluation of historic Games of Tahiti with the new lower value and, in turn, common opponents will also experience a second order downgrade. Mainly this effects OFC countries. On the upside Brazil's performance raised the team's Goalimpact.

Japan's team at the Confed Cup

I plan to post all teams of the Confederations Cup. The start is Japan. The numbers in the brackets are career-average Goalimpacts. The higher, the better the goal difference of the players team has been with him on the field as compared to without him.

Goalkeeper
Eiji Kawashima (107.4)
Shusaku Nishikawa (103,9)
Shuichi Gonda (102.1)

Defense
Masahiko Inoha (111,7)
Yuzo Kurihara (106.9)
Yuto Nagatomo (112.1)
Gotoku Sakai (106.0)
Hiroki Sakai (108.3)
Hideto Takahashi (101.9)
Atsuto Uchida (127.7)
Maya Yoshida (92.2)

Midfield
Yasuhito Endo (111.0)
Makoto Hasebe (121.2)
Keisuke Honda (114.7)
Hajime Hosogai (99.7)
Takashi Inui (103.9)
Shinji Kagawa (134,3)
Hiroshi Kiyotake (103.6)
Kengo Nakamura (109.8)
Yasuyuki Konno (102.0)

Forward
Mike Havenaar (99.1)
Ryoichi Maeda (95.7)
Shinji Okazaki (110.9)

The team has a strong midfield with Kagawa, Hasebe, Honda and Endo. The defense is also decent, but the forwards seem to lag behind. Goalimpact would suggest Shinzo Koroki (117,4) as forward, but he has not been selected.

For a tactical analysis, I recommend this German article on Spielverlagerung.de.