WC Qualifier: Kazakhstan vs Germany

At the 22nd of March and the 26th of March Germany will have two matches against Kazakhstan as part of the qualification to the World Cup qualification. Germany is the big favorite in both matches and here is why.

Germany

                                                                 Manuel Neuer (156.7)

Philipp Lahm (182.9)      Jerome Boateng (140.0)     Per Mertesacker (146.1)   Marcel Schmelzer (142.0)

                                       Bastian Schweinsteiger (179.7)    Sami Khedira (143.6)

                    Thomas Müller (163.9)             Mesut Özil (166.1)         Lukas Podolski (116.2)

                                                                 Mario Götze (136.2)

Possible Bench:
Goalies: Rene Adler (117.0), Ron-Robert Zieler (112.6)
Defense: Benedikt Höwedes (126.9), Heiko Westermann (116.8)
Midfield: Julian Draxler (127.8), Ilkay Gündogan (122.3)
Forward: Andre Schürrle (113.9)

Injured:  Lars Bender (114.4), Sven Bender (123.4), Toni Kroos (144.9), Mario Gomez (149.0)

Missing b/c of yellow cards: Marco Reus (110.6)


I have not found any indication of the starting XI yet, so I just selected the players by their Goalimpact. I chose the team with the highest total value with the only exception that I left out Toni Kroos as I thought Götze might fit better to the left wing. Obvious alternatives would be Schürrle and Reus, which have much lower Goalimpact though.

Kazakhstan

Not sure if Kazakhstan nomiated the squad already, but I couldn't find anything. So the players here are the players listed at Transfermarkt.de as national players. I strictly selected by Goalimpact for each position, so the team might be in a way it never played before.

                                                                Andrey Sidelnikov (87.1),

Konstantin Engel (94.3)  Yuriy Logvinenko (84.4)   Viktor Dmitrenko (84.2)   Aleksandr Kirov (77.2)

                                        Kayrat Nurdauletov (87.9)   Anatoliy Bogdanov (82.8)

          Ulan Konysbaev (85.9)                   Marat Khayrullin (91.7)             Heinrich Schmidtgal (105.3)

                                                          Sergey Ostapenko (83.4)

Possible Bench
Goalies: Anton Tsirin (91.6), Aleksandr Mokin (82.0)
CB: Mukhtar Mukhtarov (85.3), Valeriy Korobkin (83.4), Dmitriy Shomko (92.6),
CM: Kazbek Geteriev (92.8)
AM: Timur Baizhanov (92.3), Pavel Shabalin (90.0)
RW: Bauyrzhan Dzholchiev (85.4), Tanat Nuserbaev (76.4), Zhambyl Kukeev (77.0)
CF: Daurenbek Tazhimbetov (86.3)

Not registered: Mark Gurman (87.8), Mikhail Rozhkov (86.5),

The Kazakhstan team is having a much lower quality than Germany. The only player that is above the average Goalimpact of 100 is Schmidtgal. Ironically, he and the second best player Engel are both playing in Germany.

Prediction

Anything but a German victory would be a surprise. However, Goalimpact is less optimistic than the betting markets. The odds for the game in Kazakhstan are.


GoalimpactBetfair
Germany68%88%
x16%9%
Kazakhstan16%3%

The Betfair odds are way more in Germany's favor. They are about what you would expect according to Goalimpact if one assumes the game is on neutral ground. So maybe my the home advantage is overrated by the algorithm in this game.

The favorite is even more obvious for the rematch in Germany


Goalimpactbwin
Germany88,4%89,8%
x7,2%6,6%
Kazakhstan4,4%3,6%

Here betting markets and Goalimpact are well in aligned, indicating that the difference in the first match indeed is caused by a wrongly assumed home advantage for the Kazakh team.

Given the extreme difference in the playing ability, Kazakhstan's biggest chance is that Germany doesn't take the Game serious enough.

Update: added bwin odds for the rematch.

Update: first indications for the starting XI dropped in and I reflected them in the line-up above. The Kazakhstan's team has now considerably lower Goalimpact. I'll update the odds tonight.