Manuel Neuer (156.7)
Philipp Lahm (182.9) Jerome Boateng (140.0) Per Mertesacker (146.1) Marcel Schmelzer (142.0)
Bastian Schweinsteiger (179.7) Sami Khedira (143.6)
Thomas Müller (163.9) Mesut Özil (166.1) Lukas Podolski (116.2)
Mario Götze (136.2)
Injured: Lars Bender (114.4), Sven Bender (123.4), Toni Kroos (144.9), Mario Gomez (149.0)
Missing b/c of yellow cards: Marco Reus (110.6)
RW: Bauyrzhan Dzholchiev (85.4), Tanat Nuserbaev (76.4), Zhambyl Kukeev (77.0)
CF: Daurenbek Tazhimbetov (86.3)
Not registered: Mark Gurman (87.8), Mikhail Rozhkov (86.5),
The Betfair odds are way more in Germany's favor. They are about what you would expect according to Goalimpact if one assumes the game is on neutral ground. So maybe my the home advantage is overrated by the algorithm in this game.
The favorite is even more obvious for the rematch in Germany
Here betting markets and Goalimpact are well in aligned, indicating that the difference in the first match indeed is caused by a wrongly assumed home advantage for the Kazakh team.
Given the extreme difference in the playing ability, Kazakhstan's biggest chance is that Germany doesn't take the Game serious enough.
Update: added bwin odds for the rematch.
Update: first indications for the starting XI dropped in and I reflected them in the line-up above. The Kazakhstan's team has now considerably lower Goalimpact. I'll update the odds tonight.