Bayern München vs Manchester City: Goalimpact of Lineups

Odds based on starting XI: Bayern München: 57.8%, draw: 26.0%, Manchester City: 16.3%

Bayern München

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Mehdi Benatia114.3118.327.4Marokko20317894
Jérôme Boateng146.3146.426.0Deutschland34628081
Rafinha128.6135.329.0Brasilien Olymp.34028680
Juan Bernat104.5119.621.5Spanien [U21]896067
Mario Götze148.0159.322.3Deutschland20914303
Philipp Lahm195.1209.730.8Deutschland58952739
Thomas Müller173.9176.325.0Deutschland36128621
David Alaba131.2142.722.2Österreich24820370
Xabi Alonso168.4197.132.8Spanien63351994
Robert Lewandowski143.9144.026.0Polen28622881
Manuel Neuer192.3197.928.4Deutschland41438780
Average149.7158.826.5
Bench
Pepe Reina171.7173.932.0Spanien62658177
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg105.0139.619.1Dänemark [U21]735245
Sebastian Rode105.5110.423.9Deutschland [U21]15212334
Xherdan Shaqiri129.8138.622.9Schweiz21614157
Arjen Robben152.6165.530.6Niederlande50036977
Dante133.1148.330.8Brasilien31728315
Claudio Pizarro103.8156.435.9Peru61144455
Average128.8147.527.9


Manchester City

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Yaya Touré127.6146.631.3Elfenbeinküste44737675
Samir Nasri126.1129.527.2Frankreich43831607
Jesús Navas133.0139.528.8Spanien44035373
Edin Džeko132.8139.128.5Bosnien-Herzegowina35226273
Vincent Kompany143.8149.928.4Belgien42937503
Gaël Clichy154.1161.029.1Frankreich38432518
Joe Hart143.3150.027.3England33931608
David Silva135.3141.728.7Spanien42432910
Bacary Sagna130.1151.131.6Frankreich42237675
Martín Demichelis116.9150.233.7Argentinien46038489
Fernandinho141.5148.529.3Brasilien27122316
Average135.0146.129.4
Bench
Frank Lampard124.5180.636.2England87674878
Dedryk Boyata94.7100.123.8Belgien [U21]644555
Kun Agüero144.8145.526.3Argentinien45133335
Willy Caballero106.2107.732.926123883
James Milner117.0123.528.7England52237463
Eliaquim Mangala120.8127.023.6Frankreich [U21]17814784
Aleksandar Kolarov105.8112.328.8Serbien26520051
Average116.3128.128.6




Manchester City vs Liverpool FC: Goalimpact of Lineups

Manchester City has the stronger starting XI and the home field advantage on their side. This makes Liverpool have only outsider chances on a win, though a draw is not very unlikely. All in all, Goalimpact is more optimistic on Cities chances than the betting markets

ResultGoalimpact based on starting XIBetfair
Manchester City59.0%50.5%
Draw25.5%25.8%
Liverpool FC15.5%23.7%

Given that City has also the better bench, the odds are probably not overly optimistic for City fans. And b.t.w. it is a sin that Lazar Markovic is on the bench. There must be a place for him in Liverpool's team somewhere.

Manchester City

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Joe Hart142.9149.727.3England33631329
Yaya Touré128.6146.431.3Elfenbeinküste44337337
Samir Nasri126.8129.927.1Frankreich43431327
Stevan Jovetic104.1106.824.8Montenegro18113121
Fernando136.8139.727.0Brasilien [U20]23019743
Edin Džeko133.1139.128.4Bosnien-Herzegowina34826033
Martín Demichelis113.6146.033.6Argentinien45037639
Gaël Clichy154.1160.729.0Frankreich38132239
Pablo Zabaleta135.3142.429.5Argentinien42335558
David Silva135.3141.428.6Spanien42032612
Vincent Kompany143.6149.628.3Belgien42637224
Average132.2141.128.6
Bench
Kun Agüero145.7146.126.2Argentinien44733182
Jesús Navas134.2140.528.7Spanien43735231
Aleksandar Kolarov107.0113.428.8Serbien26219789
Bacary Sagna131.6151.431.5Frankreich42137582
Fernandinho142.6149.429.3Brasilien26822227
James Milner117.2123.428.6England52037414
Willy Caballero106.2107.632.825623418
Average126.4133.129.4


Liverpool FC

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Daniel Sturridge120.9123.224.9England21412975
Coutinho103.4114.622.2Brasilien [U20]1278374
Jordan Henderson122.1126.024.2England24819327
Dejan Lovren120.8122.725.1Kroatien20718094
Raheem Sterling101.6129.419.7England986589
Martin Škrtel106.1113.229.7Slowakei32528593
Glen Johnson125.7133.129.9England39334758
Alberto Moreno111.6123.022.1Spanien695745
Simon Mignolet107.0119.026.4Belgien22220651
Joe Allen112.7116.124.4Wales22315958
Steven Gerrard136.8172.734.2England73361512
Average115.3126.625.7
Bench
Brad Jones86.187.832.312011119
Emre Can107.2127.620.6Deutschland [U21]1149313
Mamadou Sakho110.3113.524.5Frankreich21017528
Kolo Touré131.8162.933.3Elfenbeinküste50242363
Rickie Lambert106.3132.932.4England24921177
Lazar Markovic119.2140.420.4Serbien [U21]1157616
Manquillo98.0120.320.3Spanien [U20]231758
Average108.4126.526.3



Manchester City vs. FC Barcelona: Stats for Lineups

A lot of world-class is here on the pitch. Not only Barcelona, but also Manchester City has an exceptionally good squad. Weak spot for city is Kolarov, though that is complaining on a very high level. To speak of a weak spot in Barcelona is ridiculous. However, if we need to name one being force by a gun, we'd pick Jordi Alba.

Manchester City

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Joe Hart127.0127.026.8England30728632
Vincent Kompany139.8143.627.8Belgien39134073
Pablo Zabaleta130.5135.429.1Argentinien39132504
Aleksandar Kolarov109.6114.028.3Serbien24518565
Gaël Clichy155.9160.528.5Frankreich37031185
Martín Demichelis117.1143.233.1Argentinien41934719
Jesús Navas138.9143.428.2Spanien42234421
David Silva137.2141.528.1Spanien39730829
Fernandinho143.5148.228.824820776
Yaya Touré134.7145.430.8Elfenbeinküste39232857
Álvaro Negredo116.8121.328.4Spanien29421080
Bench
Costel Pantilimon113.3113.327.0Rumänien13011989
Micah Richards111.8112.925.6Großbritannien26422273
Joleon Lescott139.3155.331.5England43138744
Samir Nasri128.3129.626.6Frankreich41129433
Javi García124.0126.127.0Spanien [U21]22516545
Edin Džeko133.8137.827.9Bosnien-Herzegowina32224105
Stevan Jovetic106.4111.324.3Montenegro16512283


FC Barcelona

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Victor Valdés155.7155.732.1Spanien58154134
Piqué146.4148.527.0Spanien37632024
Jordi Alba120.4123.524.8Spanien22717101
Dani Alves170.1180.930.8Brasilien57149190
Cesc Fàbregas181.3182.926.8Spanien48036383
Xavi133.6164.934.0Spanien82167641
Iniesta154.6159.929.8Spanien56541441
Javier Mascherano165.9171.229.7Argentinien44137435
Busquets149.7151.025.6Spanien32226152
Alexis Sánchez137.0139.525.1Chile32021633
Lionel Messi175.4176.726.6Argentinien49841176
Bench
Pinto76.976.938.322020102
Bartra125.7136.023.1Spanien [U21]1139471
Adriano133.3138.429.3Brasilien35325425
Alex Song141.6142.526.4Kamerun33526454
Sergi Roberto112.8128.422.0Spanien [U21]1218789
Pedro142.1143.226.5Spanien28919446
Neymar114.8130.422.0Brasilien18214671


Top-50 Football Players - December 2013 edition

Here is the new list of the top-50 football players on earth. It is the first list since the introduction of the football aging curve. As the current player age is now corrected for all but for goalkeepers, I removed the age limit under 30 that was previously limiting the players on the list. As a result, now we have some players that did not have a prior listing.

I take the fact that the top-5 players are equal to the ones without age factor in November as a sign of the stability and reliability of the algorithm.

Rank Player Goalimpact Age PeakGI Team Nationality Previous
Rank
GI Diff
1 Cristiano Ronaldo 195.9 28.8 200.7 Real Madrid Portugal 1 +7.9
2 Philipp Lahm 193.8 30.1 199.7 Bayern München Deutschland 4 +14.2
3 Bastian Schweinsteiger 182.0 29.3 187.1 Bayern München Deutschland 3 +1.5
4 Cesc Fàbregas 178.2 26.6 179.5 FC Barcelona Spanien 5 +6.0
5 Lionel Messi 176.2 26.4 177.2 FC Barcelona Argentinien 2 -8.6
6 Dani Alves 171.4 30.6 181.0 FC Barcelona Brasilien n.a. n.a.
7 Wayne Rooney 169.3 28.1 173.6 Manchester United England 13 +6.7
8 Iker Casillas 166.4 32.5 166.4 Real Madrid Spanien n.a. n.a.
9 Xabi Alonso 165.3 32.0 185.2 Real Madrid Spanien n.a. n.a.
10 Javier Mascherano 163.6 29.5 168.8 FC Barcelona Argentinien 12 +0.7
11 Manuel Neuer 162.3 27.7 162.3 Bayern München Deutschland 9 -4.2
12 Sergio Ramos 161.9 27.7 165.5 Real Madrid Spanien 18 +4.0
13 Mesut Özil 160.1 25.2 162.5 Arsenal FC Deutschland 6 -7.7
14 Zlatan Ibrahimovic 159.7 32.2 180.4 Paris Saint-Germain Schweden n.a. n.a.
15 Petr Cech 159.5 31.5 159.5 Chelsea FC Tschechien n.a. n.a.
16 John Terry 158.8 33.0 184.2 Chelsea FC England n.a. n.a.
17 Victor Valdés 158.4 31.9 158.4 FC Barcelona Spanien n.a. n.a.
18 Thomas Müller 157.8 24.3 162.8 Bayern München Deutschland 8 -8.7
19 Patrice Evra 154.6 32.6 177.5 Manchester United Frankreich n.a. n.a.
20 Iniesta 153.8 29.6 159.1 FC Barcelona Spanien 10 -10.5
21 Gaël Clichy 152.4 28.3 156.9 Manchester City Frankreich 19 -1.2
22 Arjen Robben 151.9 29.8 157.3 Bayern München Niederlande 11 -11.8
23 Per Mertesacker 151.5 29.2 156.5 Arsenal FC Deutschland 20 +1.4
24 Mats Hummels 151.2 24.9 154.1 Borussia Dortmund Deutschland 24 +2.9
25 Karim Benzema 150.9 25.9 151.0 Real Madrid Frankreich 17 -8.0
26 Gianluigi Buffon 150.4 35.8 150.4 Juventus Italien n.a. n.a.
27 Neven Subotic 150.0 25.0 152.9 Borussia Dortmund Serbien, USA 22 +1.0
28 Ashley Cole 149.3 32.9 174.4 Chelsea FC England n.a. n.a.
29 João Moutinho 149.1 27.3 151.7 AS Monaco Portugal 35 +4.1
30 Gregory van der Wiel 148.4 25.8 148.9 Paris Saint-Germain Niederlande 23 -0.5
31 Busquets 147.7 25.4 149.5 FC Barcelona Spanien 7 -19.5
32 Helton 147.2 35.5 147.2 FC Porto Brasilien n.a. n.a.
33 Piqué 145.8 26.8 147.5 FC Barcelona Spanien 14 -15.9
34 Darijo Srna 145.3 31.6 162.1 Shakhtar Donetsk Kroatien n.a. n.a.
35 Jan Vertonghen 144.8 26.6 146.1 Tottenham Hotspur Belgien 43 +2.7
36 Rafael van der Vaart 144.4 30.8 155.7 Hamburger SV Niederlande n.a. n.a.
37 Marcelo 144.4 25.6 145.7 Real Madrid Brasilien 16 -14.8
38 Pepe Reina 144.4 31.3 144.4 SSC Napoli Spanien n.a. n.a.
39 Johnny Heitinga 144.1 30.1 149.9 Everton FC Niederlande 40 +0.7
40 Kun Agüero 142.8 25.5 144.2 Manchester City Argentinien 79 +6.1
41 Marcel Schmelzer 142.8 25.8 143.2 Borussia Dortmund Deutschland 38 -1.3
42 Mario Gómez 142.8 28.4 147.3 ACF Fiorentina Deutschland 28 -4.6
43 Robert Lewandowski 141.8 25.3 143.8 Borussia Dortmund Polen 36 -2.8
44 Jérôme Boateng 141.7 25.3 143.8 Bayern München Deutschland 32 -4.5
45 Toby Alderweireld 141.6 24.8 145.1 Atletico Madrid Belgien 39 -2.2
46 Ángel Di María 141.1 25.8 141.7 Real Madrid Argentinien 25 -6.9
47 Sami Khedira 141.1 26.7 142.5 Real Madrid Deutschland 33 -4.7
48 Jeremain Lens 141.0 26.0 141.0 Dinamo Kiev Niederlande 41 -2.1
49 Luiz Gustavo 140.8 26.3 141.6 VfL Wolfsburg Brasilien 34 -4.5
50 Salomon Kalou 140.6 28.3 145.1 Lille OSC Elfenbeinküste 21 -8.6

The only player that was listed below rank 50 in the last month and now newly entered the list is Manchester City's Kun Agüero an rank 40.

Kun Agüero has been rated as top talent since early 2004. His expected
Peak GI (dashed line) was 180. But he didn't live up to these very high
expectations and the Peak GI dropped to still outstanding 135 in
Aug 2006 when Atletico Madrid bought him. He developed in line
with the normal aging curve since then.

In case you miss him, Franck Ribéry is on rank 84 with a Goalimpact of 135.5 down from a peak of 145.6. But lucky him, the Ballon d'Or is granted for a year of great performance and not an entire career. Hope for him to win is left.

Viktoria Plzen vs Manchester City: Lineups and Stats


Viktoria Plzen

PlayerGoalimpactAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Matus Kozacik122.629.7948569
Lukas Hejda111.223.5Tschechien [U21]733784
David Limbersky129.929.9Tschechien19817093
Vaclav Prochazka117.129.315612894
Tomas Horava111.625.3Tschechien [U21]13611184
Pavel Horvath131.238.4Tschechien21419048
Milan Petrzela123.330.2Tschechien15811731
Jan Kovarik124.225.2Tschechien [U21]13711187
Daniel Kolar128.627.8Tschechien18414183
Frantisek Rajtoral126.027.5Tschechien18714178
Marek Bakos127.230.4Slowakei1379865
Bench
Petr Bolek109.729.1111023
Roman Hubnik112.829.2Tschechien15513439
Martin Pospisil104.222.2Tschechien [U21]514051
Zdenek Koukal85.729.5997595
Stanislav Tecl109.123.0Tschechien [U21]482633
Michal Duris121.525.3Slowakei1206533
Tomas Wagner104.323.5Tschechien [U21]1165907


Manchester City

PlayerGoalimpactAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Joe Hart135.426.4England28426493
Vincent Kompany139.427.4Belgien30826619
Aleksandar Kolarov112.627.8Serbien21416331
Matija Nastasic112.220.4Serbien716255
Pablo Zabaleta125.828.6Argentinien36530439
Samir Nasri128.626.2Frankreich38027400
Jesus Navas133.527.8Spanien38832213
Fernandinho144.428.321918465
Yaya Toure152.130.3Elfenbeinküste32326814
Edin Dzeko137.527.5Bosnien-Herzegowina29322035
Kun Agüero136.125.2Argentinien40830574
Bench
Costel Pantilimon113.326.6Rumänien11410517
Joleon Lescott144.831.0England39735597
James Milner112.327.7England46233842
Javi Garcia126.426.6Spanien [U21]20315312
Jack Rodwell109.222.5England [U21]1327718
Stevan Jovetic109.423.8Montenegro15511802
Alvaro Negredo112.728.0Spanien26119044


Spain's Perfect Eleven takes on the Confed Cup

Spain's national team is full with so many excellent football players that it is a pitty only eleven can play at a time. If the staring XI consists of the players with the highest Goalimpact, it would average above 150. Many of the opponents in this tournament don't even have a single player that good.

Player GoalImpact Age Team Games Minutes Position
Victor Valdes 184,6 31,4 FC Barcelona 477 44.369
GK
Iker Casillas 172,8 32,0 Real Madrid 692 64.244
GK
Pepe Reina
152,5 30,8 Liverpool FC 571 53.172
GK
Sergio Ramos 164,5 27,2 Real Madrid 426 37.948
DF
Pique 162,8 26,3 FC Barcelona 279 23.075
DF
Arbeloa 161,6 30,4 Real Madrid 287 24.521
DF
Raul Albiol 138,2 27,7 Real Madrid 301 25.267
DF
Azpilicueta 114,2 23,8 Chelsea FC 219 19.069
DF
Nacho Monreal 112,3 27,3 Arsenal FC 201 17.880
DF
Xavi 175,0 33,4 FC Barcelona 671 54.314
MF
Cesc Fabregas 173,2 26,1 FC Barcelona 432 33.105
MF
Iniesta 170,1 29,1 FC Barcelona 449 31.742
MF
Busquets 170,0 24,9 FC Barcelona 232 18.530
MF
David Silva 139,1 27,4 Manchester City 364 28.325
MF
Mata 133,9 25,1 Chelsea FC 299 22.491
MF
Jesus Navas 129,9 27,5 Sevilla FC 355 29.607
MF
Santi Cazorla 127,8 28,5 Arsenal FC 375 27.528
MF
Jordi Alba 126,6 24,2 FC Barcelona 192 14.371
MF
Javi Martinez 113,3 24,8 Bayern München 281 23.485
MF
Pedro 162,7 25,8 FC Barcelona 200 12.888
FW
David Villa 148,8 31,5 FC Barcelona 450 34.928
FW
Fernando Torres 133,7 29,2 Chelsea FC 506 39.235
FW
Soldado 120,2 28,0 Valencia CF 254 18.099
FW

Spain looks unbeatable in this tournament. Only Brazil may have a chance due to the home advantage.