Netherlands vs Mexico: Goalimpact of Lineups


Netherlands

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Jasper Cillessen112.5112.525.1AFC Ajax857588
Ron Vlaar114.6120.429.3Aston Villa23620965
Stefan de Vrij118.3132.322.3Feyenoord15913487
Daley Blind133.0139.024.3AFC Ajax16914006
Paul Verhaegh82.394.730.8FC Augsburg29626769
Nigel de Jong136.6142.529.5AC Milan45436044
Wesley Sneijder142.8149.030.0Galatasaray45035013
Georginio Wijnaldum127.0135.723.6PSV Eindhoven24219393
Robin van Persie135.4148.530.8Manchester United47933654
Arjen Robben156.0165.230.3Bayern München49236171
Dirk Kuyt129.5161.033.8Fenerbahce71056293
Average126.2136.428.2
Bench
Michel Vorm103.2103.230.6Swansea City26023975
Tim Krul97.197.126.2Newcastle United17716391
Bruno Martins111.3125.322.3Feyenoord13211321
Daryl Janmaat121.4125.324.8Feyenoord18415412
Joël Veltman114.4128.122.4AFC Ajax493986
Terence Kongolo97.2126.020.3Feyenoord423155
Jonathan de Guzmán107.8109.626.8Swansea City28722913
Jordy Clasie117.3128.722.9Feyenoord15913185
Leroy Fer107.7113.124.4Norwich City24219322
Jeremain Lens139.8141.126.5Dinamo Kiev28519808
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar136.3149.230.8FC Schalke 0441733318
Memphis Depay100.4129.220.3PSV Eindhoven965935
Average112.8123.024.9


Mexico

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Guillermo Ochoa96.896.828.9AC Ajaccio42739735
Maza113.3139.032.6CF America42936803
Carlos Salcido110.4144.234.2UANL Tigres48043058
Rafael Márquez114.3160.035.3Club Leon48939989
Héctor Moreno118.4119.426.3Espanyol Barcelona27924334
Paul Aguilar106.6111.728.3CF America28123542
Héctor Herrera100.4106.824.1FC Porto976866
Miguel Layún103.9104.225.9CF America17512100
Andrés Guardado115.7119.927.7Bayer Leverkusen33427248
Giovani Dos Santos110.3113.525.1Villarreal CF22514782
Oribe Peralta113.3122.730.4Santos Laguna38025346
Average109.4121.729.0
Bench
José Corona100.4100.433.3Cruz Azul43240084
Alfredo Talavera102.3102.331.7Deportivo Toluca25222790
Diego Reyes104.2121.921.7FC Porto13411421
Miguel Ponce104.3107.225.2Deportivo Toluca13711126
Marco Fabián104.5108.424.8Cruz Azul22615164
Isaác Brizuela103.3111.123.8Deportivo Toluca1718663
Javier Aquino113.5119.324.3Villarreal CF1589899
Carlos Peña106.9113.124.2Club Leon1118872
Raúl Jiménez110.1120.923.1CF America1138412
Alan Pulido103.7113.823.3UANL Tigres1196387
Javier Hernández124.3124.326.0Manchester United26114801
Average107.0113.025.6


Odds based on starting XI: Netherlands: 42.1%, draw: 30.3%, Mexico: 27.6%

Croatia vs Mexico: Goalimpact of Lineups


Croatia

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Stipe Pletikosa95.995.935.4FK Rostov24022345
Šime Vrsaljko115.6129.222.4Genoa CFC15013120
Danijel Pranjic105.0130.232.5Panathinaikos33727009
Vedran Corluka116.9122.128.3Lokomotiv Moskva27424527
Dejan Lovren122.2125.924.9Southampton FC20417815
Darijo Srna143.0166.332.1Shakhtar Donetsk36231682
Ivan Perišic119.5121.825.3VfL Wolfsburg24516546
Ivan Rakitic127.7128.326.3Sevilla FC37026977
Luka Modric130.3135.728.8Real Madrid32926977
Mario Mandžukic129.3134.328.0Bayern München27021112
Ivica Olic102.4142.134.8VfL Wolfsburg35023498
Average118.9130.229.0
Bench
Oliver Zelenika95.895.821.1Lokomotiva Zagreb474300
Danijel Subašic122.4122.429.6AS Monaco19818364
Gordon Schildenfeld123.5129.329.2Panathinaikos21318814
Domagoj Vida122.3125.525.1Dinamo Kiev19617030
Ognjen Vukojevic123.8133.830.4Dinamo Kiev27722875
Marcelo Brozovic104.1123.021.5Dinamo Zagreb13010816
Milan Badelj128.4130.925.3Hamburger SV24520102
Sammir121.3124.127.1Getafe CF22417250
Mateo Kovacic92.0122.620.1Inter1308523
Nikica Jelavic117.8123.328.8Hull City27218971
Ante Rebic97.6123.320.7ACF Fiorentina764872
Eduardo118.4135.131.3Shakhtar Donetsk22312299
Average114.0124.125.9


Mexico

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Guillermo Ochoa96.896.828.9AC Ajaccio42739735
Maza113.3139.032.6CF America42936803
Rafael Márquez114.3160.035.3Club Leon48939989
Héctor Moreno118.4119.426.3Espanyol Barcelona27924334
Paul Aguilar106.6111.728.3CF America28123542
Héctor Herrera100.4106.824.1FC Porto976866
Miguel Layún103.9104.225.9CF America17512100
Andrés Guardado115.7119.927.7Bayer Leverkusen33427248
José Juan Vázquez110.1110.626.3Club Leon887642
Giovani Dos Santos110.3113.525.1Villarreal CF22514782
Oribe Peralta113.3122.730.4Santos Laguna38025346
Average109.4118.628.3
Bench
José Corona100.4100.433.3Cruz Azul43240084
Alfredo Talavera102.3102.331.7Deportivo Toluca25222790
Carlos Salcido110.4144.234.2UANL Tigres48043058
Diego Reyes104.2121.921.7FC Porto13411421
Miguel Ponce104.3107.225.2Deportivo Toluca13711126
Marco Fabián104.5108.424.8Cruz Azul22615164
Isaác Brizuela103.3111.123.8Deportivo Toluca1718663
Javier Aquino113.5119.324.3Villarreal CF1589899
Carlos Peña106.9113.124.2Club Leon1118872
Raúl Jiménez110.1120.923.1CF America1138412
Alan Pulido103.7113.823.3UANL Tigres1196387
Javier Hernández124.3124.326.0Manchester United26114801
Average107.3115.626.3


Odds based on starting XI: Croatia: 38.8%, draw: 30.7%, Mexico: 30.5%

Brazil vs. Mexico: Match Preview


Brazil

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Júlio César115.8115.834.8Toronto FC38135197
Dani Alves176.7191.931.1FC Barcelona54746927
Thiago Silva128.4134.429.7Paris Saint-Germain27424687
David Luiz131.5134.327.1Chelsea FC26223049
Marcelo150.1150.226.1Real Madrid28823952
Paulinho113.3113.825.8Tottenham Hotspur17013599
Oscar123.9136.122.8Chelsea FC20013805
Ramires130.1133.127.2Chelsea FC33927481
Luiz Gustavo141.4143.526.8VfL Wolfsburg24619437
Fred109.6121.430.7Fluminense RJ24718248
Neymar114.5128.522.3FC Barcelona19715689
Average130.5136.627.7
Bench
Jefferson93.793.731.4Botafogo RJ22720944
Victor115.0115.031.3Atletico Mineiro24422712
Dante136.6148.130.6Bayern München31227941
Maxwell141.9168.332.8Paris Saint-Germain42034144
Henrique105.1109.227.7SSC Napoli17615694
Maicon121.7148.532.8AS Roma41236520
Fernandinho144.8150.529.1Manchester City26321922
Hernanes123.0128.629.0Inter31525343
Willian140.7141.425.8Chelsea FC27620399
Bernard100.8118.321.8Shakhtar Donetsk1007259
Hulk131.4136.027.8Zenit St. Petersburg21517654
113.7116.727.2Atletico Mineiro25017493
Average122.4131.228.9


Mexico

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Guillermo Ochoa96.896.828.9AC Ajaccio42739735
Maza113.3139.032.6CF America42936803
Rafael Márquez114.3160.035.3Club Leon48939989
Héctor Moreno118.4119.426.3Espanyol Barcelona27924334
Paul Aguilar106.6111.728.3CF America28123542
Héctor Herrera100.4106.824.1FC Porto976866
Miguel Layún103.9104.225.9CF America17512100
Andrés Guardado115.7119.927.7Bayer Leverkusen33427248
José Juan Vázquez110.1110.626.3Club Leon887642
Giovani Dos Santos110.3113.525.1Villarreal CF22514782
Oribe Peralta113.3122.730.4Santos Laguna38025346
Average109.4118.628.3
Bench
José Corona100.4100.433.3Cruz Azul43240084
Alfredo Talavera102.3102.331.7Deportivo Toluca25222790
Carlos Salcido110.4144.234.2UANL Tigres48043058
Diego Reyes104.2121.921.7FC Porto13411421
Miguel Ponce104.3107.225.2Deportivo Toluca13711126
Marco Fabián104.5108.424.8Cruz Azul22615164
Isaác Brizuela103.3111.123.8Deportivo Toluca1718663
Javier Aquino113.5119.324.3Villarreal CF1589899
Carlos Peña106.9113.124.2Club Leon1118872
Raúl Jiménez110.1120.923.1CF America1138412
Alan Pulido103.7113.823.3UANL Tigres1196387
Javier Hernández124.3124.326.0Manchester United26114801
Average107.3115.626.3


Backtesting: Confederations Cup

Ultimately, the meaning of analysis is to either to improve or to predict. Being on the top-down side of analysis, my realm is the prediction of player performance and, based on this, team performance. Every prediction should be checked after the fact, so we can learn and improve.

Before the Confederations Cup I posted this ranking of national teams according to Goalimpact and other metrics. So how did they fare?


Betfair had all games right, just based on the odds of the World Cup (sic!) title. It was not entirely level playing field though, as Brazil's home advantage has been factored in into the odds while the other measures just rank the teams and thus got the final wrong. In all other games of Brazil, they would have been the favorite even without the home advantage.

However, we can still conclude that the cup was without any big surprises and was very predictable unless you use a very defunct scoring system such as the FIFA uses for their world ranking list. However, the market values published at transfermarkt.de are also not a perfect proxy for playing strength. Assuming transfermarkt.de publishes correct estimates of true market values, one must concluded that Mexican players are undervalued or Japanese overvalued.

Anyway, I'm content with Goalimpact's predictions. But the bar was low at this tournament. Everything but the final was right, so would I predict all the same? No! Of course not. Even if the predictions were correct, there is much to learn. Tahiti was rated far too good by Goalimpact and received a hefty downgrade as result of this tournament. This will also lead to a revaluation of historic Games of Tahiti with the new lower value and, in turn, common opponents will also experience a second order downgrade. Mainly this effects OFC countries. On the upside Brazil's performance raised the team's Goalimpact.

Mexico's National Team at the Confed Cup

Despite of many players playing in Mexico's domestic league, Primera Division, this team has no weak spots. Whilst few players stand out, all have a sound Goalimpact at least. A fact that indicates the relative strength of the Mexican football. This team will be difficult to play against.

Player GoalImpact Age Team Games Minutes Position
Guillermo Ochoa 109,2 27,9 AC Ajaccio 344 31985 GK
Jose Corona 108,8 32,3 Cruz Azul 347 32179 GK
Alfredo Talavera 103,7 30,7 Deportivo Toluca 196 17924 GK
Carlos Salcido 140,4 33,2 UANL Tigres 411 37141 DF
Maza 127,9 31,6 CF America 352 30182 DF
Hector Moreno 117,6 25,4 Espanyol Barcelona 230 19989 DF
Hiram Mier 115,3 23,8 CF Monterrey 125 11098 DF
Diego Reyes 112,8 20,7 CF America 103 8645 DF
Severo Meza 112,1 26,9 CF Monterrey 245 18599 DF
Jorge Torres Nilo 109,5 25,4 UANL Tigres 206 16810 DF
Jesus Molina 104,9 25,2 Cruz Azul 177 14227 DF
Gerardo Flores 103,4 27,3 Cruz Azul 168 11744 DF
Gerardo Torrado 130,2 34,1 Cruz Azul 407 33867 MF
Andres Guardado 117,0 26,7 Valencia CF 295 24181 MF
Angel Reyna 114,7 28,7 CF Pachuca 264 18072 MF
Javier Aquino 113,7 23,3 Villarreal CF 111 7080 MF
Hector Herrera 97,0 23,1 CF Pachuca 59 4409 MF
Javier Hernandez 135,5 25,0 Manchester United 208 12217 FW
Aldo de Nigris 114,3 29,9 CF Monterrey 281 18831 FW
Pablo Barrera 114,2 25,9 Cruz Azul 180 11640 FW
Giovani Dos Santos 113,3 24,1 RCD Mallorca 179 11547 FW
Jesus Zavala 111,9 25,9 CF Monterrey 194 13000 FW
Raul Jimenez 111,6 22,1 CF America 62 4374 FW

Top players are Javier Hernandez, a.k.a. Chicharito, Carlos Salcido, and Torrado. However, the later two are approaching the age limits for professional football and may not perform as good anymore as indicated by their career average Goalimpacts over the full time.