"Goalimpact Machine" Thomas Müller - Mover of the Month

Sometimes not playing is as important as playing to improve the Goalimpact. Take for example Thiago Alcántara. Without him Bayern had an some, partly embarrassingly, bad performances including a loss against Augsburg, a 0:3 defeat in Dortmund and of course the 0:5 in the two legs against Real Madrid. Unsurprisingly, this caused the Goalimpact of many Bayern players to drop. The biggest hits took David Alaba (-1.7), Mitchell Weiser (-1.5), Philipp Lahm (-1.4), Mario Götze (-1.1), plus Toni Kroos and Manuel Neuer who both lost 1 point.

Thiago Alcántara didn't play and hence wasn't held responsible for this streak of bad games. As everybody else was rated down, Thiago's earlier games are seen in new light and his GI should improve accordingly. Just it didn't. It even fell marginally by 0.2. The reason for this is that the algorithm identified another, more important factor to explain the results: Thomas Müller. Here are the Bayern games in April split into the parts with and without Thomas Müller. Do you see what we mean by "Goalimpact Machine"?

Goal Differential without Müller with Müller
Augsburg -1 0
Dortmund -3 0
Braunschweig 0 2
Bremen n.a. 3
HSV n.a. 3
ManU 1 -1
ManU 0 2
Real Madrid -1 0
Real Madrid -1 -3
Kaiserslautern n.a. 4

Thomas Müller: Mover of the Month April 2014
Without Thomas Müller, Bayern München didn't have A SINGLE positive goal differential. With Thomas Müller, München failed to outscored their opponents only once and had six, partly strongly, positive goal differentials. This is Goalimpact in it's purest form. Thomas Müller already had a very high score, but this result outscored even the prior high expectations and hence the score raised an incredible 7 points from an already high expected peak of 168.6 to 173.3. His current Goalimpact is 169.

Update: I had the first ManU games the wrong way round. So actually, this was one period without Müller that had a positive goal differential. The overall picture is unchanged, though.

Djibril Paye - Mover of the Month

In the category Mover of the Month, we are reporting every month the player that had the biggest positive surprise in the last 30 days. This month's top mover plays in Moldova's top league at Sheriff Tiraspol. The 23yo usually plays as left-back. In December his results were.

Divizia Nationala Dacia - Sheriff 1 3
Divizia Nationala Sheriff - Ac. Chisinau 8 0
Divizia Nationala Milsami - Sheriff 0 2
Europa League Sheriff - Tromsö 2 0

In for games the team scored 15 goals and conceded only one. Paye played all games full 90 minutes. The only exception was the 8:0 against Chisinau when he left already after 58 minutes. But at that time the score was already 8:0 giving an incredible goal difference rate in those five games. It was sufficient to increase his Goalimpact full three points in only one month.

Djibril Paye is expected to peak between 115 and 120 since summer 2011.
His performance has been a bit mediocre in 2012, but picked up
in 2013 putting him back on track with his development.

His current rating now is 115 and his price tag on transfermarkt is only 350.000€. Transferring him to a bigger league looks like a no-brainer to us.

Fabian Kling - Mover of the Month

This months top-mover of all 44,914 active players was Fabian Kling. Kling is a 26 years ol center-back playing at FV Illertissen in Regionalliga Bayern, the fourth German league. He might be known to U.S. soccer fans as he played 2012 for the San Antonio Scorpions FC in the North American Soccer League. Coming back to German might turn out to be a good move, because he had an outstanding series in September.

04.09.2013Viktoria AschaffenburgvsFV Illertissen0:4
07.09.2013FV IllertissenvsEintracht Bamberg4:1
14.09.2013SpVgg Bayern HofvsFV Illertissen0:3
21.09.2013FV Illertissenvs1. FC Schweinfurt 055:1
27.09.2013Bayern München IIvsFV Illertissen0:2

Five games, thereof three on the road, won with a total goal difference of +16. One of them even in the stadium of Bayern München II, the B-team of the current Champions League winner that leads the Regionalliga Bayern.

That performance increased his Goalimpact from an already very good 102,7 to 110,2. But as can be seen in the following graph, the risk is not zero, because unfortunately I do not have his time in the U.S. in my database. His value therefore uncertain, similar to that of a younger player.

However, surely a club from 3. Liga is willingly to take that risk and hire him for 50,000 Euros, no? Even if his true Goalimpact will turn out to be 100 instead of 110, that would be a bargain. If not, if the team continues this current performance, he will play 3. Liga next year anyway.

Britt Assombalonga - Mover of the Month

The leagues in throughout Europe started again and thus we can see more movement in the players. Especially players that changed the club in the transfer period are more likely to make larger movements. The strongest Goalimpact improvement in August came from a young player in the English League One. Britoli Curtis Assombalonga is forward at Peterborough United, a club with a remarkable performance last month.

03.08.2013 Peterborough - Swindon 1:0
10.08.2013 Notts - Peterborough 2:4
17.08.2013 Peterborough - Oldham 2:1
24.08.2013 Tranmere - Peterborough 0:5
06.08.2013 Colchester - Peterborough 1:5
27.08.2013 Peterborough - Reading 6:0

Peterborough won all of their four League One games and all their two League Cup games in August. All of their three away games even with a margin of two goals at least, scoring five in two. Yet, most surprising must have been the 6:0 against FC Reading, a club that plays in the higher Championship, in the second round of the League Cup. Given this performance, actually all players of Peterborough improved their Goalimpact. I selected Assombalonga as top mover, because he had the strongest movement among those players that had already 3000+ minutes.

Assombalonga nearly played the whole time. He has been substituted only twice. In minute 89 int he game against Notts when it was still 4:1 and in minute 80 against Reading at a score of 5:0. Assombalonga contributed five goals and three assists to those six matches. His score went up by 6.6 points (yes, even as a young player, even such a performance doesn't make you skyrocket) to 103.8. With that score surely he should be able to play Championship, no?

Sadio Mane - Mover of the Month

Not many leagues were ongoing in July so this month's top mover comes naturally from a league that was. Sadio Mane from Red Bull Salzburg plays in the Austrian Bundesliga and played already three games for them in July. The 21 years old left wing played two league games and one game in the Champions League qualification round. These were the results.

Wiener Neustadt - RB Salzburg1:5
RB Salzburg - Austria Wien5:1
RB Salzburg - Fenerbahce1:1

Three excellent results, especially if one considers that Mane left the Fenerbahce game when Salzburg was still 1:0 in lead. This lead to an increase in Goalimpact of 6.4 points as shown in the chart.

Mane appears to be a big talent and we shouldn't be surprised if he is soon going to play in a bigger league soon. With a Goalimpact of 119 he qualifies for a Big5 league team. Actually, the transfer window didn't close yet.

Bruno Varela - Mover of the Month

I conducted the database update so now all games in June 2013 are reflected in the Goalimpact. In the category Mover of the Month, I report the player that saw the biggest increase in Goalimpact in that update. This month it is Bruno Varela, a 18 years old goalkeeper from Portugal. He is not only the keeper of SL Benfica B in Segunda Liga, but also the keeper of the Portuguese U20 national team.

For a young player with only few data points, the Goalimpact estimates are subject to greater statistical uncertainty. Yet, the increase from 104.0 to 109.8 in just one month is superb. Segunda Liga was already finished in June, so the increase stems from his line-ups in the qualification to the U19 European Championships. In just five days, Portugal beat Bulgaria 7:0, Czech Republic 4:1 on foreign ground, and Denmark 1:0.

Transfermarkt.de lists him with a value of 400k€. The transfer window is still open. Why wait?