Stats for Lineups of Paris Saint-Germain vs. Chelsea FC

Paris Saint-Germain is expected to win against Chelsea FC with 0.160 goals. This is a very close tie.

Paris Saint-Germain

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Salvatore Sirigu119.8119.827.3Italien21620073
Thiago Silva128.8134.729.5Brasilien26623943
Alex142.0163.131.8Brasilien36031024
Maxwell143.1168.832.641533679
Christophe Jallet105.1114.830.4Frankreich26922045
Thiago Motta108.9128.431.6Italien33423643
Blaise Matuidi117.3119.727.0Frankreich33928502
Marco Verratti121.0141.021.4Italien [U21]1369267
Edinson Cavani122.9125.827.2Uruguay33927470
Zlatan Ibrahimovic167.1192.332.5Schweden58247135
Ezequiel Lavezzi113.2118.828.9Argentinien37429117
Bench
Nicolas Douchez91.991.933.922720977
Marquinhos97.3129.819.9Brasilien [U17]665474
Lucas Digne110.7136.320.7Frankreich [U21]897817
Yohan Cabaye117.7122.928.3Frankreich35026964
Adrien Rabiot94.2137.219.0Frankreich [U21]654181
Javier Pastore115.9120.124.8Argentinien23417200
Lucas116.2134.421.7Brasilien15711176


Chelsea FC

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Petr Cech158.8158.831.8Tschechien63258825
Branislav Ivanovic129.2136.430.1Serbien35130695
David Luiz132.5134.826.9Brasilien25622607
Gary Cahill110.4115.628.3England33830820
John Terry157.5186.533.3England65859001
Azpilicueta123.3128.124.6Spanien27723995
Ramires132.0134.527.0Brasilien33427063
Oscar123.6136.522.6Brasilien19513453
Eden Hazard132.4142.423.3Belgien30222059
Willian141.5142.725.7Brasilien [U20]26719656
André Schürrle121.6131.023.4Deutschland22216255
Bench
Mark Schwarzer118.5118.541.5Australien68463913
Nathan Aké87.3128.919.1Niederlande [U21]362694
Tomáš Kalas107.6131.720.9Tschechien [U21]917885
Frank Lampard121.9172.835.8England86774210
John Mikel120.9123.226.9Nigeria34525206
Fernando Torres132.6139.130.0Spanien54841896
Demba Ba112.8118.328.8Senegal23717704


Bayer Leverkusen vs Paris Saint-Germain: Stats for Lineups

This is a game of two very good sides. The chances for Leverkusen to advance are better than many expect. Still PSG is the favorite. They have some world-class in their starting XI and no weak links. For Leverkusen Son and Spahic are well below the average team quality.

Julian Brandt is on the bench. One of the most talented young German players. Will be exciting to see him, but his lack of experience make it risky. But he is certainly an option if PSG is in the lead.

Bayer Leverkusen

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Bernd Leno115.5115.521.9Deutschland [U21]18517236
Emir Spahic91.1119.133.4Bosnien-Herzegowina22920642
Roberto Hilbert111.9117.029.3Deutschland35728505
Ömer Toprak120.0124.124.5Türkei19616711
Simon Rolfes124.3144.332.0Deutschland47039140
Lars Bender115.6119.124.8Deutschland24717962
Sidney Sam126.1126.226.0Deutschland23516190
Andrés Guardado117.9120.827.3Mexiko32826726
Gonzalo Castro125.9127.326.7Deutschland [U21]34728237
Heung-Min Son95.9114.821.6Südkorea1328651
Stefan Kießling125.0130.630.0Deutschland39028619
Bench
David Yelldell91.291.232.320819265
Philipp Wollscheid112.7115.724.917915551
Sebastian Boenisch116.0118.127.0Polen16312231
Stefan Reinartz125.7128.325.1Deutschland [U21]22819442
Jens Hegeler114.1114.226.021614083
Levin Öztunali67.2124.717.9Deutschland [U19]382871
Julian Brandt92.7154.817.8Deutschland [U19]524432


Paris Saint-Germain

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Salvatore Sirigu117.7117.727.1Italien20619143
Thiago Silva127.4132.529.3Brasilien25623076
Alex138.2155.431.7Brasilien34229391
Maxwell142.3164.632.442134237
Gregory van der Wiel150.5150.526.0Niederlande24521283
Thiago Motta109.8125.531.4Italien32522900
Blaise Matuidi116.6118.326.8Frankreich33027841
Marco Verratti119.0140.421.3Italien [U21]1268684
Lucas114.8134.421.5Brasilien14610548
Zlatan Ibrahimovic164.0185.732.3Schweden58447474
Ezequiel Lavezzi110.9115.728.8Argentinien36428350
Bench
Nicolas Douchez92.992.933.822620884
Marquinhos95.0129.119.8Brasilien [U17]604916
Lucas Digne109.6136.520.5Frankreich [U21]857445
Yohan Cabaye116.3120.728.1Frankreich34026488
Adrien Rabiot92.7136.818.8Frankreich [U21]613992
Javier Pastore115.5119.424.6Argentinien22516742
Jérémy Ménez111.4112.926.8Frankreich33520922


Top-50 Football Players June 2013


I did my monthly update of the database and subsequently of all players' Goalimpacts. This time I did not only add the new games in May, but also added some more competitions. Now I have a total of 163 competitions covered. New is e.g. the Chinese Super League, the Turkish and the Portuguese second league  and the Algerian division 1. So if you are looking for good players in any of these, just contact me.

As always, here are the top 50 players under 30 according to their influence on the teams goal difference ("Goalimpact"). We have four new entries

  • Luiz Gustavo
  • Robert Lewandowski
  • Fernando
  • Theo Walcott
Dani Valves dropped out of the list as he became 30 in May.

The 50 players come from 15 different teams playing in 10 different leagues. This underlines that the algorithm is capable to select and compare players across teams and leagues fairly well. He even can identify top players outside of the five big leagues.

Rank Player GoalImpact Team Nationality Previous
Rank
Diff GI
1 Cristiano Ronaldo 194,4 Real Madrid Portugal 1 +1,32
2 Lionel Messi 189,3 FC Barcelona Argentinien, Spanien 2 +1,01
3 Philipp Lahm 188,8 Bayern München Deutschland 3 +3,67
4 Bastian Schweinsteiger 185,1 Bayern München Deutschland 4 +2,30
5 Cesc Fabregas 173,1 FC Barcelona Spanien 6 +0,39
6 Iniesta 170,0 FC Barcelona Spanien 7 +0,06
7 Busquets 170,0 FC Barcelona Spanien 9 +0,63
8 Wayne Rooney 169,9 Manchester United England 8 +0,46
9 Mesut Özil 168,4 Real Madrid Deutschland 10 +0,49
10 Thomas Müller 167,0 Bayern München Deutschland 11 +1,69
11 Arjen Robben 166,0 Bayern München Niederlande 14 +2,22
12 Sergio Ramos 164,4 Real Madrid Spanien 13 +0,40
13 Manuel Neuer 164,2 Bayern München Deutschland 16 +3,64
14 Pique 162,8 FC Barcelona Spanien 15 -0,45
15 Pedro 162,6 FC Barcelona Spanien 12 -1,71
16 Javier Mascherano 162,3 FC Barcelona Argentinien, Italien 17 +2,37
17 Karim Benzema 160,8 Real Madrid Frankreich 19 +1,56
18 Marcelo 159,9 Real Madrid Brasilien 18 +0,21
19 Gael Clichy 157,9 Manchester City Frankreich 20 +0,01
20 Salomon Kalou 153,8 Lille OSC Elfenbeinküste 21 +0,21
21 Mario Gomez 151,8 Bayern München Deutschland 22 +1,37
22 Gonzalo Higuai­n 151,1 Real Madrid Argentinien, Frankreich 24 +1,07
23 Gregory van der Wiel 150,5 Paris Saint-Germain Niederlande, Curacao 23 +0,14
24 Nani 150,1 Manchester United Portugal 25 +1,09
25 Per Mertesacker 150,0 Arsenal FC Deutschland 26 +1,36
26 Angel Di Maria 148,5 Real Madrid Argentinien 29 +0,90
27 Thiago 148,0 FC Barcelona Spanien, Brasilien 31 +0,81
28 Joao Moutinho 147,4 FC Porto Portugal 32 +0,87
29 Robin van Persie 147,4 Manchester United Niederlande 27 -0,99
30 Andriy Pyatov 147,0 Shakhtar Donetsk Ukraine 33 +0,68
31 Johnny Heitinga 146,6 Everton FC Niederlande 30 -1,01
32 Toby Alderweireld 146,6 AFC Ajax Belgien, Niederlande 37 +1,16
33 Holger Badstuber 146,5 Bayern München Deutschland 35 +0,59
34 Jerome Boateng 146,4 Bayern München Deutschland 40 +1,47
35 Sami Khedira 146,0 Real Madrid Deutschland 38 +0,57
36 Toni Kroos 145,9 Bayern München Deutschland 36 +0,32
37 Neven Subotic 145,9 Borussia Dortmund Serbien, USA 41 +1,16
38 Jan Vertonghen 145,8 Tottenham Hotspur Belgien 34 -0,17
39 Siem de Jong 145,2 AFC Ajax Niederlande 46 +0,95
40 Wesley Sneijder 145,1 Galatasaray Niederlande 42 +0,43
41 Marcel Schmelzer 145,0 Borussia Dortmund Deutschland 43 +0,40
42 Luiz Gustavo 145,0 Bayern München Brasilien 51 +1,32
43 Fernandinho 144,8 Shakhtar Donetsk Brasilien 44 +0,24
44 Robert Lewandowski 144,8 Borussia Dortmund Polen 52 +1,21
45 Emmanuel Adebayor 144,6 Tottenham Hotspur Togo 50 +0,92
46 Klaas-Jan Huntelaar 144,2 FC Schalke 04 Niederlande 45 -0,06
47 Willian 144,0 Anzhi Makhachkala Brasilien 47 +0,00
48 Nigel de Jong 143,7 AC Milan Niederlande, Suriname 48 -0,17
49 Fernando 143,6 FC Porto Brasilien 53 +0,37
50 Theo Walcott 143,2 Arsenal FC England, Barbados 55 +1,51


Hall Of Fame - The Best Football Players of All Time

So far, only 65 players in history managed to have a Goalimpact of more than 160. Here is the full list in order of entry.

NumberDate of EntryNameTeam
104/1976Gerd MüllerBayern München
204/1976Franz BeckenbauerBayern München
312/1976Sepp MaierBayern München
404/1980Berti VogtsBor. Mönchengladbach
505/1981Paul BreitnerBayern München
605/1985Felix MagathHamburger SV
706/1985Bodo RudwaleitBFC Dynamo
804/1986Dieter HoeneßBayern München
906/1986Klaus AugenthalerBayern München
1012/1986Norbert TrieloffBFC Dynamo
1105/1987Erich ObermayerAustria Wien
1206/1987Manfred KaltzHamburger SV
1312/1987Uli SteinEintracht Frankfurt
1406/1988Herbert ProhaskaAustria Wien
1504/1990Hans PflüglerBayern München
1611/1993ZubizarretaFC Barcelona
1710/1994Bernd SchusterBayer Leverkusen
1806/1995Leo LainerRB Salzburg
1910/1997SanchisReal Madrid
2010/1998Lothar MatthäusBayern München
2104/2002Andreas MöllerFC Schalke 04
2203/2003Oliver KahnBayern München
2302/2006Patrick VieiraJuventus
2403/2006Ryan GiggsManchester United
2510/2006Claude MakeleleChelsea FC
2611/2006Paul ScholesManchester United
2712/2006Gary NevilleManchester United
2810/2007Luis FigoInter
2912/2008Thierry HenryFC Barcelona
3012/2008John TerryChelsea FC
3102/2009Edwin van der SarManchester United
3210/2009PuyolFC Barcelona
3310/2009XaviFC Barcelona
3411/2009Frank LampardChelsea FC
3503/2010Iker CasillasReal Madrid
3606/2010Ashley ColeChelsea FC
3706/2010Victor ValdesFC Barcelona
3806/2010Petr CechChelsea FC
3907/2010Lionel MessiFC Barcelona
4011/2010Cristiano RonaldoReal Madrid
4112/2010Bastian SchweinsteigerBayern München
4203/2011Alessandro NestaAC Milan
4304/2011Ricardo CarvalhoReal Madrid
4405/2011Dani AlvesFC Barcelona
4507/2011Philipp LahmBayern München
4609/2011IniestaFC Barcelona
4710/2011Wayne RooneyManchester United
4810/2011Xabi AlonsoReal Madrid
4911/2011KakaReal Madrid
5011/2011BusquetsFC Barcelona
5112/2011Cesc FabregasFC Barcelona
5202/2012LucioInter
5303/2012Patrice EvraManchester United
5405/2012Mesut ÖzilReal Madrid
5505/2012PedroFC Barcelona
5606/2012ArbeloaReal Madrid
5708/2012PiqueFC Barcelona
5808/2012Sergio RamosReal Madrid
5910/2012Mark van BommelPSV Eindhoven
6012/2012Thomas MüllerBayern München
6112/2012AlexParis Saint-Germain
6212/2012Zlatan IbrahimovicParis Saint-Germain
6303/2013Arjen RobbenBayern München
6404/2013Javier MascheranoFC Barcelona
6505/2013Manuel NeuerBayern München


Goalimpact allows, in principle, for inter-temporal comparison. However, we can see that today more player per year enter the list than in the 1990s and before. One reason for this is the emergence of more leagues in my database and a resulting score inflation. Another reason is the higher amount of games played by a single player today as compared to the 'good old times'. This makes the job easier for the algorithm to differentiate between good and bad players and good players therefore can easier reach higher values.

I like historical analysis and if I come around data from the old times that are missing at the moment, I'll try to add them to my database and update this list. One league that comes to mind is the Dutch Eredivisie. I have it only from 2003 onward. Johan Cruyff was at his time in he top 30 of the players all along, but could never reach 160+ because I recorded too few minutes of him and his scored therefore suffered from the regression to the mean. I'd love to add his time at Ajax.

Paris Saint-Germain vs FC Barcelona: Preview Champions Legue Quarter Final

Both Spanish teams face rather easy opponents in the quarter finals of the UEFA Champions League. The FC Barcelona will play against the Paris Saint-Germain, a club that spent a few millions on buying high profile football stars. However, their greatest star, Zlatan Ibrahimovic is suspended from playing due to a red card in the round of sixteen.

Paris Saint-Germain's starting XI may be something like this. Numbers in brackets are the player's playing strength according to Goalimpact.

                                               Salvatore Sirigu (118.3)

     Jallet (110.3)          Alex (160.8)           Thiago Silva (132.5)        Maxwell (150.6)

                                          Motta (132.7)   Matuidi (107.4)
            Chantome (108.7)                                                       Pastore (117.9)

                                          Lucas (121.0)    Ibrahimovic (163.3)



Bench: Verratti (118.4), Menez (116.1), Sakho (117.6), van der Wiel (150.4), Armand (109.0), Lavezzi (114.6)

Suspension: -

While the team has with Alex, Maxwell and van der Wiel some outstanding players, many others are less impressive. According to their Goalimpact only Thiago Silva, Thiago Motta and Lucas are on Champions League level which I would say is above 120.

For the FC Barcelona this is very different.


                                                       Messi (188.0)
        Pedro (165.8)                                                                      Villa (146.7)

                           Xavi (176.7)                                     Iniesta (170.0)
                                                   Busquets (170.9)

      Alba (125.7)        Mascherano (159.5)        Pique (163.9)           Alves (171.9)


                                                  Victor Valdes (185.4)


Bench: Cesc Fabregas (171.3), Cristian Tello (119.8), Alexis Sanchez (128.7), Alex Song (138.9), Martin Montoya (119.3), Pinto (105.8), Thiago (147.0)

Injured: Adriano (139.0), Puyol (179.8)


Nearly all players are world class and as many as eight players are better than the best player of Paris. And even some very good players are on the bench. That said, as if to remind us that even at Barcelona humans are at work and not gods, there are indeed some not so outstading players on the bench, too. But these are very young players that almost certainly will eventually become world-class. Even if you would force me with a gun to point to a weakness of Barcelona, I'd couldn't tell any.


Prediction: A victory for Barcelona in both legs. I can't see PSG scoring a goal. PSG should leverage on their rather good defense. I suggest letting van der Wiel play and parking the bus in front of the goal and hope for a successful counter attack or the penalties.

Update
I removed the yellow card suspension of Ibrahimovic. PSGs chances to score a goal are certainly higher now. Now actually, Goalimpact is more optimistic than the betting markets. 1st leg odds are

Goalimpact
Betfair
PSG
30,3%
18,8%
x
22,9%
25,2%
Barcelona
46,8%
56,0%

Still Barcelona to win in both legs is the likeliest outcome. However, I was overly pessimistic in my first jugdement. PSG chances are slim, but certainly not zero.