Viktoria Plzen vs Manchester City: Lineups and Stats


Viktoria Plzen

PlayerGoalimpactAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Matus Kozacik122.629.7948569
Lukas Hejda111.223.5Tschechien [U21]733784
David Limbersky129.929.9Tschechien19817093
Vaclav Prochazka117.129.315612894
Tomas Horava111.625.3Tschechien [U21]13611184
Pavel Horvath131.238.4Tschechien21419048
Milan Petrzela123.330.2Tschechien15811731
Jan Kovarik124.225.2Tschechien [U21]13711187
Daniel Kolar128.627.8Tschechien18414183
Frantisek Rajtoral126.027.5Tschechien18714178
Marek Bakos127.230.4Slowakei1379865
Bench
Petr Bolek109.729.1111023
Roman Hubnik112.829.2Tschechien15513439
Martin Pospisil104.222.2Tschechien [U21]514051
Zdenek Koukal85.729.5997595
Stanislav Tecl109.123.0Tschechien [U21]482633
Michal Duris121.525.3Slowakei1206533
Tomas Wagner104.323.5Tschechien [U21]1165907


Manchester City

PlayerGoalimpactAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Joe Hart135.426.4England28426493
Vincent Kompany139.427.4Belgien30826619
Aleksandar Kolarov112.627.8Serbien21416331
Matija Nastasic112.220.4Serbien716255
Pablo Zabaleta125.828.6Argentinien36530439
Samir Nasri128.626.2Frankreich38027400
Jesus Navas133.527.8Spanien38832213
Fernandinho144.428.321918465
Yaya Toure152.130.3Elfenbeinküste32326814
Edin Dzeko137.527.5Bosnien-Herzegowina29322035
Kun Agüero136.125.2Argentinien40830574
Bench
Costel Pantilimon113.326.6Rumänien11410517
Joleon Lescott144.831.0England39735597
James Milner112.327.7England46233842
Javi Garcia126.426.6Spanien [U21]20315312
Jack Rodwell109.222.5England [U21]1327718
Stevan Jovetic109.423.8Montenegro15511802
Alvaro Negredo112.728.0Spanien26119044


Fenerbahce vs Plzen: Preview

For today's match of Fenerbahce SK against FC Viktoria Plzen the odds are with the Turks. Having won the first match 1:0 on the away ground, a draw would be enough to advance.

I couldn't find any expected linups, so this is was I put together by looking at the players Goalimpacts.

Fenerbahce

                                                               Volkan Demirel (134.5)

      Gökhan Gönül (132.4)    Joseph Yobo (115.6)   Egemen Korkmaz (111.4)    Reto Ziegler (111.5)

                                        Mehmet Topal (121.4)     Selcuk Sahin (123.7)

                              Dirk Kuyt (156.3)     Cristian (123.0)       Miroslav Stoch (122.7)

                                                             Semih Sentürk (132.5)                                    


Subs: Bekir Irtegün (97.5), Serdar Kesimal (105.2), Hasan Kaldirim (100.4), Salih Ucan (107.2), Sezer Öztürk (96.8), Caner Erkin (108.3), Milos Krasic (117.8), Mehmet Topuz (120.9), Moussa Sow (116.9), Pierre Webo (103.3)

Red card suspension: Raul Meireles (137.7)

No playing clearance for Europa League: Emre Belözoglu (134.9)

Fenerbahce has a very strong team. Especially the right wing with Gökhan and Kuyt has a quality that can cause trouble to any opponent. A weakness seems to be the defense. Both center-backs are above the average Goalimpact of 100, but far from Champions League level. The weakness is mitigated to some extend by the two good defensive midfielders, Topal and Selcuk, and the strong keeper Volkan.

The lineup proposed by Goalimpact has some notable differences to the starting XI from the first leg game against Plzen. There Irtegün played as center-back instead of Korkmaz. A suboptimal choice given his much lower playing strength. Sow played on the left wing, but the difference to Stoch is not that big so the choice depends on the tactics. Webo actually only has an average Goalimpact, while Semih plays on international level. But Semih scored little this season and Webo scored the goal against Plzen, so the choice may be Webo on this match again.

Plzen

                                                            Matus Kozacik (114.1)

Frantisek Rajtoral (121.9)   Vaclav Prochazka (110.7)  Marian Cisovsky (119.0)  David Limbersky (123.5)

                                                 Vladimir Darida (124.9)  Pavel Horvath (127.2)

                           Michal Duris (118.1)  Daniel Kolar (126.8)  Jan Kovarik (117.5)

                                                          Marek Bakos (125.7)

Subs: David Stipek (115.9), Radim Reznik (109.2), Lukas Hejda (100.7), Martin Fillo (104.8), Martin Zeman (109.3), Stanislav Tecl (96.7), Roman Adamov (89.8)

Injured: Marek Hanousek (105.7)

Plzen has a very balanced starting XI. However, there are not many alternatives on the bench that have comparably high Goalimpact. The 'ideal' starting line-up above is actually nearly identical to one in the first match against Fenerbahce. The only difference is that Goalimpact favors Limberskyover Reznik. The choice on that wing can be crucial as it is going to be exposed to Kuyt and Gökhan.

Prediction

Based on above standings, the most likely outcome is that Fenerbahce also wins the second game. The probability for this is 56% according to Goalimpact. This is slightly more optimistic than the betting markets, which imply a probability of 51%. However, my calculation doesn't take the previous result into account. Fenerbahce may well be happy with a draw and may not try as hard as it can to win.