Supercopa 2014: Real Madrid - Atlético Madrid: Goalimpact of Linups

Real Madrid would be the favorite even if it would field their worst eleven players. Not sure how to value the home field advantage in this on. Here are the odds based on the starting XIs depending on where you put the HFA.

Real Madrid: 71.2% (Home), draw: 19.8%, Atletico Madrid: 9.1%

Real Madrid: 40.5%, draw: 30.5%, Atletico Madrid: 29.0% (Home)

Real Madrid: 56.1%, draw: 26.6%, Atletico Madrid: 17.3% (Neutral Ground)


Real Madrid

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Iker Casillas195.1196.233.2Spanien75470056
Pepe136.5156.131.4Portugal33329545
Sergio Ramos168.0173.928.3Spanien50745096
Marcelo140.8141.526.3Brasilien29424541
Dani Carvajal127.8137.422.6Spanien [U21]917590
Toni Kroos135.6138.624.6Deutschland30521932
Gareth Bale125.4127.425.1Wales32527481
Xabi Alonso170.3198.032.7Spanien63051740
Luka Modric126.0132.528.9Kroatien33227256
Cristiano Ronaldo206.5213.529.5Portugal62051827
Karim Benzema154.4156.226.6Frankreich41127102
Average153.3161.028.1
Bench
Keylor Navas101.9108.327.7Costa Rica15214106
Raphaël Varane118.9135.021.3Frankreich1119205
Fábio Coentrão119.8121.026.4Portugal23117835
Arbeloa127.3147.831.5Spanien33828846
Ángel Di María142.9144.326.5Argentinien38125142
Isco117.4128.022.3Spanien16512106
James Rodríguez125.1132.823.1Kolumbien20414874
Average121.9131.025.5


Atletico Madrid

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Moyá93.596.930.3Spanien [U21]22220276
Diego Godín121.5127.628.4Uruguay34230803
Siqueira93.199.028.318413725
Juanfran118.1125.229.6Spanien36527603
Miranda133.3140.629.9Brasilien32729603
Mario Suárez114.6118.727.4Spanien22216131
Koke120.9130.522.6Spanien19312908
Raúl García118.8124.628.1Spanien [U21]40827165
Gabi113.2129.631.138630311
Saúl92.4119.619.7Spanien [U21]665056
Mario Mandžukic124.8130.728.2Kroatien27221298
Average113.1122.127.6
Bench
Jan Oblak91.4149.021.6Slowenien787190
Cristian Ansaldi106.2111.527.820317104
José Giménez90.4119.519.5Uruguay312689
Tiago105.2135.733.3Portugal36925949
Cristian Rodríguez101.2107.628.8Uruguay32718513
Raúl Jiménez109.8116.923.3Mexiko1168501
Antoine Griezmann106.0112.623.3Frankreich22517061
Average101.5121.825.4


Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid: GIs for Lineups


Real Madrid

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Iker Casillas165.9165.932.9Spanien74969560
Raphaël Varane115.9139.021.0Frankreich1038491
Sergio Ramos171.2176.228.1Spanien49944321
Fábio Coentrão126.9127.326.2Portugal22717582
Dani Carvajal127.7141.722.3Spanien [U21]887327
Sami Khedira139.7142.427.1Deutschland33426492
Gareth Bale126.6130.724.8Wales32227171
Luka Modric130.1135.528.7Kroatien32526638
Ángel Di María147.2147.726.3Argentinien37224352
Cristiano Ronaldo197.1202.829.3Portugal61451322
Karim Benzema158.0158.926.3Frankreich39826141
Bench
Diego López110.4110.432.529827356
Pepe143.7159.831.2Portugal33029322
Marcelo150.2150.326.0Brasilien28323593
Arbeloa136.3153.331.3Spanien33628742
Isco116.8132.022.0Spanien16011709
Illarramendi120.7127.024.2Spanien [U21]1137876
Morata121.2140.321.5Spanien [U21]804278


Atletico Madrid

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Thibaut Courtois131.7131.722.0Belgien20418932
Diego Godín123.6128.828.2Uruguay33530121
Filipe Luís124.8130.228.8Brasilien30426415
Juanfran119.3125.129.3Spanien36027180
Miranda134.7140.829.7Brasilien32329200
Tiago108.7136.233.0Portugal36525546
Koke120.8134.822.3Spanien18712432
Raúl García121.6126.127.8Spanien [U21]40026663
Gabi115.2128.130.838229908
David Villa137.1161.932.4Spanien51639202
Diego Costa116.3117.825.622817352
Bench
Aranzubía94.294.234.6Spanien36934102
Toby Alderweireld142.8145.625.2Belgien20518073
Mario Suárez117.6120.627.2Spanien22116038
Cristian Rodríguez107.9113.228.6Uruguay32318173
Diego118.1123.829.2Brasilien38631972
José Sosa115.4120.928.8Argentinien36123320
Adrián110.6111.426.3Spanien29118427


Stats for Lineups of Real Madrid vs. Borussia Dortmund


Expected goal difference given the line-ups 0.659

Real Madrid

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Iker Casillas165.8165.832.8Spanien74168816
Pepe141.9157.331.1Portugal32328691
Sergio Ramos168.4173.428.0Spanien49243688
Fábio Coentrão125.4125.626.1Portugal22117044
Dani Carvajal125.3139.622.3Spanien [U21]816749
Gareth Bale124.6129.024.8Wales31226413
Xabi Alonso164.2188.732.3Spanien61750691
Luka Modric127.2132.628.6Kroatien31725920
Isco113.7129.421.9Spanien15211140
Cristiano Ronaldo196.4202.129.2Portugal61051015
Karim Benzema155.9156.626.3Frankreich39125529
Bench
Diego López108.7108.732.429527077
Raphaël Varane114.2137.920.9Frankreich978260
Nacho110.9117.124.2Spanien [U21]523986
Casemiro109.8124.622.1Brasilien [U20]1137164
Illarramendi118.9125.524.1Spanien [U21]1067512
José Rodríguez86.4125.919.3Spanien [U19]634029
Morata119.7139.421.4Spanien [U21]764135


Borussia Dortmund

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Roman Weidenfeller126.7126.733.740637503
Mats Hummels152.7155.125.3Deutschland28725137
Sokratis Papastathopoulos108.6109.325.8Griechenland23619289
Lukasz Piszczek132.1137.628.8Polen25520303
Erik Durm100.2116.421.9Deutschland [U21]1148796
Sebastian Kehl106.8140.334.2Deutschland43034652
Henrikh Mkhitaryan128.1130.825.2Armenien21418078
Nuri Sahin131.1132.625.6Türkei28421703
Kevin Großkreutz133.1134.125.7Deutschland [U21]30323621
Marco Reus116.8120.824.8Deutschland25219452
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang111.6115.724.8Gabun22616324
Bench
Mitchell Langerak109.3109.325.6554967
Manuel Friedrich95.2133.134.6Deutschland41436283
Jonas Hofmann103.7121.321.8Deutschland [U21]15610625
Miloš Jojic104.4119.522.0Serbien [U21]634030
Oliver Kirch79.899.531.621716863
Julian Schieber115.1118.125.2Deutschland [U21]1769019
Marvin Ducksch97.3127.920.1Deutschland [U17]936245


Real Madrid vs FC Barcelona: Goalimpacts of the Lineups

The duel of two of the best teams of the world. Both have excellent players, Real Madrid even the best player of the world. But it is not only one football god playing tonight. It is a complete pantheon. You need to search for slightly lower quality with a magnification glass. And even then they will be players that are among the best in next to any other team of the world.

Real Madrid

In the defense, Carvajal seems to be the weaker side. Goalimpact never seems to become a fan of Bale, too.

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Diego López106.5106.532.328025682
Pepe139.9152.030.9Portugal30727158
Sergio Ramos163.8167.727.8Spanien47342084
Marcelo146.6147.325.8Brasilien26622077
Dani Carvajal121.1136.322.1Spanien [U21]695778
Gareth Bale121.3125.424.6Wales30025319
Xabi Alonso164.1185.032.2Spanien59348571
Luka Modric125.5130.028.4Kroatien30624966
Ángel Di María142.5142.626.0Argentinien35222732
Cristiano Ronaldo195.8200.729.0Portugal59449593
Karim Benzema152.4152.726.1Frankreich37424255
Bench
Iker Casillas165.5165.532.7Spanien72667489
Raphaël Varane112.9137.920.8Frankreich897696
Fábio Coentrão124.3124.625.9Portugal21516584
Nacho110.5116.024.0Spanien [U21]493821
Isco111.2128.321.8Spanien14010713
Illarramendi117.3123.323.9Spanien [U21]956953
Morata117.9139.021.3Spanien [U21]693979


FC Barcelona

The quality of the player at Barcelona is generally higher. Xavi is not young anymore. Still excellent, but only a shadow of his great past when he ruled a game. Jordi Alba seems to be the weak spot in the defense. Neymar, as Bale, needs to show more effectiveness to be loved by Goalimpact. And, let's hope Pinto doesn't need to play. He doesn't seem to be good enough for this game.

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Victor Valdés155.7155.732.1Spanien58154134
Piqué146.4148.527.0Spanien37632024
Jordi Alba120.4123.524.8Spanien22717101
Dani Alves170.1180.930.8Brasilien57149190
Cesc Fàbregas181.3182.926.8Spanien48036383
Xavi133.6164.934.0Spanien82167641
Iniesta154.6159.929.8Spanien56541441
Javier Mascherano165.9171.229.7Argentinien44137435
Busquets149.7151.025.6Spanien32226152
Lionel Messi175.4176.726.6Argentinien49841176
Neymar114.8130.422.0Brasilien18214671
Bench
Pinto76.976.938.322020102
Bartra125.7136.023.1Spanien [U21]1139471
Adriano133.3138.429.3Brasilien35325425
Alex Song141.6142.526.4Kamerun33526454
Sergi Roberto112.8128.422.0Spanien [U21]1218789
Pedro142.1143.226.5Spanien28919446
Alexis Sánchez137.0139.525.1Chile32021633


Schalke 04 vs. Real Madrid: Lineups and Ratings

Schalke has an excellent offensive play and some talent in the defense. But make no mistake, the favorite staffed with world-class. Current world-class, not just future world-class as in Schalke.

FC Schalke 04

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Ralf Fährmann99.199.125.3978968
Benedikt Höwedes128.1128.325.9Deutschland27123090
Felipe Santana113.4117.427.916712197
Sead Kolasinac110.2136.420.6Deutschland [U19]977234
Joel Matip109.7122.822.5Kamerun18414829
Max Meyer98.5147.818.3Deutschland [U17]704711
Kevin Prince Boateng111.6113.626.9Ghana27319698
Julian Draxler114.7142.820.3Deutschland15610178
Roman Neustädter130.0130.125.924319838
Jefferson Farfán130.1135.229.3Peru41134018
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar137.7146.630.5Niederlande39931746
Bench
Timo Hildebrand108.7108.734.8Deutschland42439528
Tim Hoogland109.3113.928.714011035
Kyriakos Papadopoulos111.5127.421.9Griechenland1299926
Christian Fuchs107.6111.527.8Österreich37330762
Leon Goretzka88.5130.919.0Deutschland [U21]725346
Chinedu Obasi111.5115.127.7Nigeria14510224
Ádám Szalai113.5113.826.2Ungarn15810828


Real Madrid

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Iker Casillas165.5165.532.7Spanien72667489
Pepe139.9152.030.9Portugal30727158
Sergio Ramos163.8167.727.8Spanien47342084
Marcelo146.6147.325.8Brasilien26622077
Dani Carvajal121.1136.322.1Spanien [U21]695778
Nacho110.5116.024.0Spanien [U21]493821
Gareth Bale121.3125.424.6Wales30025319
Xabi Alonso164.1185.032.2Spanien59348571
Ángel Di María142.5142.626.0Argentinien35222732
Cristiano Ronaldo195.8200.729.0Portugal59449593
Karim Benzema152.4152.726.1Frankreich37424255
Bench
Diego López106.5106.532.328025682
Raphaël Varane112.9137.920.8Frankreich897696
Fábio Coentrão124.3124.625.9Portugal21516584
Arbeloa136.9149.931.1Spanien32327485
Isco111.2128.321.8Spanien14010713
Illarramendi117.3123.323.9Spanien [U21]956953
Jesé Rodríguez104.8128.620.9Spanien [U21]764966


Prediction for the Champions League

The waiting has finally come to an end and the new Champions League season will start this week. Time to dare a prediction for the group phase. Because of the limited number of international games, this is particularly difficult to predict. Let's see how Goalimpact will fare this year.

Group A

Team Goalimpact Min Max
Manchester United 140,0 95,3 170,0
Shakhtar Donetsk 125,7 89,8 155,3
Bayer Leverkusen 116,4 93,5 132,5
Real Sociedad 106,3 94,3 121,8

I see ManU and Shakhtar as favorites with Leverkusen having some chances on rank 2. Given the odds on the betting markets, this seems uncontroversial although the distance of Sociedad is smaller there.

Group B

Team Goalimpact Min Max
Real Madrid 149,8 113,7 197,0
Juventus 126,9 92,6 153,3
Galatasaray 120,5 90,3 158,1
FC Köbenhavn 111,2 88,1 128,8

Again the order is in line with the betting markets. However, according to Goalimpact, Galatasaray's chances to advance instead of Juventus are much bigger than what is implied in the odds.

Group C

Team Goalimpact Min Max
Paris Saint-Germain 129,6 99,5 170,9
RSC Anderlecht 123,9 82,5 145,9
SL Benfica 122,1 97,3 142,9
Olympiakos Piräus 108,9 89,9 138,0

PSG is uncontroversial the top favorite in this group. Goalimpact picked RSC as second, which is heavily disputed by the betting pundits which rank SL Benfica much higher. They even see Anderlecht worse than Olympiakos. Update: After the transfer window closed, RSC Anderlecht dropped to 117, now well behind Benfica.

Group D

Team Goalimpact Min Max
Bayern München 150,9 97,5 187,8
Manchester City 132,3 104,7 158,0
Viktoria Plzen 122,6 89,6 131,2
CSKA Moskva 119,2 94,9 136,4

The top two are very uncontroversial. Plzen and Moskva have the opposite order on the betting markets.

Group E

Team Goalimpact Min Max
Chelsea FC 133,0 103,0 178,9
FC Schalke 04 120,8 99,7 144,3
FC Basel 116,7 93,3 131,2
Steaua Bucuresti 108,0 87,5 118,4

Same order on the betting markets. Finally, again. Schalke expected to advance, but Basel may turn out to be a stumbling block.

Group F

Team Goalimpact Min Max
Borussia Dortmund 131,3 104,1 151,6
Arsenal FC 127,1 106,4 150,6
SSC Napoli 120,9 93,6 154,7
Olympique Marseille 106,6 90,0 124,4

Again same order and about the same implied distances, too. Arsenal and Dortmund will fight for the first group place and Napoli may be a bad surprise for the other one of them. The Özil transfer is not yet reflected in Arsenal's Goalimpact. It is likely to raise it two or three points, bringing it closer to Dortmund. Update: In September the GI of Dortmund dropped significantly due to injuries. Arsenal that gained a bit because of Özil now on top spot.

Group G

Team Goalimpact Min Max
FC Porto 128,2 91,3 158,3
Zenit St. Petersburg 122,8 93,8 139,8
Atletico Madrid 122,7 93,5 151,9
Austria Wien 117,9 104,2 131,9

Both according to the betting markets and Goalimpact the most uncertain outcome will be in this group. All teams are about as good as the others with Porto sticking a bit on the upper side and Austria on the lower side. The betting markets make a firmer statement here, putting Porto and Atletico on 1 and 2, Zenit with good chances to take the place of one of them. Austria, on the other hand, is seen only with low chances to advance. According to Goalimpact, the chances are low, but not that marginal. Update: After the transfer window closed, Ateltico gained one point and is now in front of Zenit.

Group H

Team Goalimpact Min Max
FC Barcelona 158,5 107,7 190,8
AFC Ajax 130,4 101,3 146,5
AC Milan 118,8 95,2 145,9
Celtic FC 117,9 85,2 139,7

I like that prediction, because it again contradicts the betting markets. Ajax has, according to Goalimpact, good chances to advance, while they are only remote if you believe in the rational of the bettors. Update: Redoing the analysis after the transfer window closed, let Ajax drop to 119, only narrowly in front of AC Milan.