FC Schalke vs. SC Freiburg: Lineups with new Age Factor.

Today we introduced the new aging curve of football players. This allows us to add a new value to all players, the Peak Goalimpact. This values refers to the estimated Goalimpact at the peak of the aging curve, around the age of 26. For young players this is a prognosis of the future.

FC Schalke 04

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Ralf Fährmann98.598.525.2918410
Tim Hoogland108.8113.428.513610759
Felipe Santana112.6116.327.816211732
Sead Kolasinac107.8135.320.4Deutschland [U19]926781
Christian Fuchs107.8111.427.7Österreich36730465
Joel Matip108.7122.622.3Kamerun17814283
Max Meyer94.7145.918.2Deutschland [U17]644218
Kevin Prince Boateng109.8111.326.8Ghana26719140
Roman Neustädter129.7130.325.823719336
Jefferson Farfán129.2134.229.1Peru40533465
Ádám Szalai114.0114.026.0Ungarn15210481
Bench
Timo Hildebrand110.8110.834.7Deutschland42439528
Kyriakos Papadopoulos110.0127.321.8Griechenland1219360
Kaan Ayhan106.4148.119.1Türkei [U21]756469
Leon Goretzka87.5131.818.8Deutschland [U21]685251
Jermaine Jones95.4115.632.1USA31724890
Robert Leipertz90.4114.920.8594414
Chinedu Obasi111.9115.127.5Nigeria14310189


SC Freiburg

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Oliver Baumann102.8102.823.5Deutschland [U21]15514431
Pavel Krmas81.4111.133.814512431
Oliver Sorg109.8117.823.5Deutschland [U21]14812781
Matthias Ginter103.0135.519.8Deutschland [U21]1079666
Christian Günter99.4124.520.8856736
Immanuel Höhn104.5120.421.91058855
Gelson Fernandes90.393.027.3Schweiz26219124
Vladimír Darida119.2128.223.3Tschechien1057861
Nicolas Höfler108.5115.423.813310571
Karim Guédé94.899.728.9Slowakei996330
Admir Mehmedi102.2114.222.8Schweiz1658991
Bench
Daniel Batz106.3106.322.9575301
Tim Schraml89.4114.920.7383080
Václav Pila?104.9107.425.2Tschechien796502
Nicolai Lorenzoni110.1128.821.6977915
Tim Albutat105.9127.721.21199758
Felix Klaus97.8119.421.31208688
Mike Hanke97.3103.430.1Deutschland36020737


VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: DFB-Pokal Preview

Just a short glimpse on the two likely staring 11s for tomorrow's DBP-Pokal semifinal between VfB Stuttgart and SC Freiburg.

VfB Stuttgart


Bench: Cacau (115.4), Tim Hoogland (115.2), Shinji Okazaki (110.5), Federico Macheda (110.3), Tamas Hajnal (108.2), Felipe (101.6), William Kvist (131.9)

Injured: Daniel Didavi (95.7), Tunay Torun (100.3)

It is still unclear if Serdar Tasci (116.9) can play as he is injured and may not recover in time. Cacau (115.4) just returned from injury and may lack training.

Stuttgart's weakness is clearly the midfield. Especially Maxim and Traore are not particularly high scored. For a Bundesliga player I see 100 as lower limit. I'm not sure why the team decided to have many decent central forwards with Goalimpacts between 110 and 115, but no as good central midfielder. Accordingly, only Fürth and Augsburg scored less goals then Stuttgart. Maybe they should consider letting Tamas Hajnal (108.2) play instead of Maxim.

William Kvist (131.9) is also an interesting player. According to his Goalimpact he is the best in the team, however he earned bad critics lately and didn't play lately in the starting 11.

SC Freiburg



Bench: Christian Günter (117.5), Johannes Flum (97.0), Cedric Makiadi (95.5), Marco Terrazzino (95.4), Vegar Hedenstad (94.9), Karim Guede (90.3), Ivan Santini (90.1)

Injured: Sebastian Freis (108.2)

Freiburg's bench is clearly sub par. Only the young Christian Günter (117.5) would be an improvement. But he only recently joined the A team, so it is unclear if Freiburg's trainer Streich will risk to let him play in the cup as Sorg isn't really bad either.

The overall Goalimpact of the players isn't that high and it is really astonishing that they currently on the fifth rank of the Bundesliga. Clearly that is the achievement of Christian Streich.

Odds

It is seldom that odds and Goalimpact deviate that much. Goalimpact, as you can see from the player scores, is skeptical about Freiburg and considers their performance this year partly luck driven. It may be mistaken here and the sudden increase of performance is not due to luck, but the tactical concept of the team.

Goalimpact Betfair
Stuttgart 57,4% 39,7%
x 18,7% 28,5%
Freiburg 23,9% 31,8%

Update

Because Serdar Tasci (116.9) is indeed injured Antonio Rüdiger (95.4) plays tonight. The odds change to.

Goalimpact Betfair
Stuttgart 56,1% 40,0%
x 19,0% 28,0%
Freiburg 24,9% 32,0%