Young Player Challenge - January 2016 Update

Winter break. Good time to check how did our Young Talent Challenge do since the last update. As always, here is the list of the 23 most talented players that are yet to turn 20 plus our earlier picks even if they are no longer among the 25 most talented. Players listed with a value of 2,000,000 € or below at Transfermarkt.de are anonymized and numbered. The numbers are consistent with earlier posts. When talents become known, we will uncover them.

Player Transfermarkt First Listed Transfermarkt @ first listed Goalimpact PeakGI Player Age
Julian Brandt, Bayer Leverkusen 10.000.000 € Apr 15 5.000.000 € 140 174 20
Anonymous Talent 28 600.000 € Jan 16 600.000 € 85 165 17
Anonymous Talent 20 0 € Jul 15 0 € 85 158 18
Anonymous Talent 29 250.000 € Jan 16 250.000 € 73 156 17
Youri Tielemans, RSC Anderlecht 12.000.000 € Apr 15 12.000.000 € 102 155 19
Anonymous Talent 30 1.750.000 € Jan 16 1.750.000 € 89 155 18
Rubén Neves, FC Porto 6.000.000 € Apr 15 5.000.000 € 103 154 19
Anonymous Talent 31 0 € Jan 16 0 € 81 153 18
Anonymous Talent 19 1.200.000 € Jul 15 500.000 € 96 153 19
Ante Ćorić, Dinamo Zagreb 5.000.000 € Jul 15 2.500.000 € 99 151 19
Anonymous Talent 32 0 € Jan 16 0 € 73 151 17
Anonymous Talent 33 0 € Jan 16 0 € 90 150 18
Breel-Donald Embolo, FC Basel 16.000.000 € Apr 15 8.000.000 € 101 150 19
Anonymous Talent 34 900.000 € Jan 16 900.000 € 90 150 18
Anonymous Talent 9 1.500.000 € Apr 15 750.000 € 117 150 20
Anonymous Talent 24 0 € Sep 15 0 € 76 150 18
Martin Ødegaard, Real Madrid Castilla 4.000.000 € Jan 16 4.000.000 € 66 149 17
Anonymous Talent 4 700.000 € Apr 15 500.000 € 94 149 19
Anonymous Talent 36 0 € Jan 16 0 € 93 148 19
Andrija Živković, Partizan 7.000.000 € Apr 15 3.000.000 € 111 148 20
Anonymous Talent 37 0 € Jan 16 0 € 84 148 18
Anonymous Talent 38 0 € Jan 16 0 € 74 147 18
Anonymous Talent 2 1.500.000 € Apr 15 1.000.000 € 97 147 19
Anonymous Talent 39 0 € Jan 16 0 € 78 147 18
Anonymous Talent 27 1.500.000 € Sep 15 500.000 € 105 146 19
Anonymous Talent 3 300.000 € Apr 15 1.000.000 € 97 145 19
Anonymous Talent 26 1.300.000 € Sep 15 750.000 € 85 143 18
Anonymous Talent 8 1.500.000 € Apr 15 500.000 € 99 141 19
Anonymous Talent 18 50.000 € Jul 15 0 € 104 141 20
Anonymous Talent 12 400.000 € Apr 15 125.000 € 99 141 19
Anonymous Talent 22 2.000.000 € Jul 15 1.000.000 € 93 140 19
Anonymous Talent 5 300.000 € Apr 15 350.000 € 103 139 20
Richairo Živković, Willem II 2.500.000 € Apr 15 4.000.000 € 98 139 19
Anonymous Talent 1 500.000 € Apr 15 300.000 € 91 138 19
Valentino Lazaro 2.000.000 € Jul 15 2.500.000 € 106 138 20
Anonymous Talent 15 1.500.000 € Apr 15 1.000.000 € 89 138 19
Anonymous Talent 23 1.500.000 € Jul 15 750.000 € 99 137 19
Anonymous Talent 17 450.000 € Jul 15 200.000 € 87 137 19
Anonymous Talent 16 0 € Apr 15 0 € 94 136 19
Danilo, Valencia CF 7.000.000 € Sep 15 7.000.000 € 105 136 20
Anonymous Talent 11 75.000 € Apr 15 50.000 € 83 135 19
Teddy Bishop, Ipswich Town 2.500.000 € Apr 15 2.500.000 € 97 135 20
Anonymous Talent 13 250.000 € Apr 15 125.000 € 101 134 20
Anonymous Talent 25 0 € Sep 15 0 € 66 133 18
Anonymous Talent 21 0 € Jul 15 0 € 45 113 18

Julian Brandt still leads, but to remarkable things happend. First, he didn't manage to further improve his peak. In fact, it dropped by three points. Secondly, another player of similar talent appeared on the screen. As his value is listed well below 2,000,000€, he remains anonymous and we take him into our virtual portfolio of January 2016 as "Anonymous Talent 28".

Of the old selected players, most still have a very good peak estimate. Just "Anonymous Talent 21" dropped to 113 and probably will not bring a strong return. Most others developed very well. Here is the overview of our investments.
„Julian-Brandt“ von Fuguito
Lizenziert unter CC-BY-SA 4.0

Cohort Investment Up Down Profit Rate of Return
Apr 15 6.700.000 € 63% 25,0% 2.975.000 € 44,40%
Jul 15 2.450.000 € 83% 0,0% 2.750.000 € 112,24%
Sep 15 1.250.000 € 50% 0,0% 1.550.000 € 124,00%
Jan 16 3.500.000 € 0% 0,0% 0 € 0,00%

The investments done in April 2015 will be hold for one year soon. 63% of them raised in value while only 25% dropped. We made on the overall investment of 6.7M€ a profit of nearly 3M€ or more than 40%. But it is dwarfed by the July investments that lead to nearly the same profit despite of an investment of only 2.4M€. In total a return on investment of 112% in just half a year. So far this portfolio is still to see a player to actually drop in value. Less time, but even more return was the September 2015 portfolio. 50% of the players increased in value in the just four months since the summer transfer window closed. This portfolio also more than doubled the value since then.

This month we again have some drop out because they turned 20.

Player Transfermarkt First Listed Transfermarkt @ first listed Goalimpact PeakGI Player Age Drop Out
Anonymous Talent 6 50.000 € Apr 15 50.000 € 107 130 20 Sep 15
Anonymous Talent 7 750.000 € Apr 15 500.000 € 111 138 20 Jan 16
Anonymous Talent 10 150.000 € Apr 15 200.000 € 107 133 20 Jan 16
Anonymous Talent 14 200.000 € Apr 15 250.000 € 108 134 20 Jan 16

All of the new drop-outs (Talent 7, 10 and 14) are still considered promising talents. We will change the rules and keep them in the portfolio.

FIFA World XI by Goalimpact


The FIFA didn't select the players that have the highest Goalimpact, but that isn't also to be expected. The FIFA World XI is a honor that is based on 2015 performance only, while Goalimpact is based on all games of the player's career. But even given that, there are some surprising omissions in the FIFA list: no Özil?!? Anyway, the list isn't too far of Goalimpact either and most players on the list are passing 150, my arbitrary level of world-class.

Other than Özil, notable omission from Goalimpact perspetive are Theo Walcott, Mario Götze and Cesc Fàbregas.


Rank GIPlayerTeamGoalimpactPlayer AgePeakGINationality
1Thomas MüllerBayern München211,726,2212,0Deutschland
4Karim BenzemaReal Madrid198,527,8202,6Frankreich
5Robert LewandowskiBayern München198,327,2201,0Polen
6Lionel MessiFC Barcelona197,628,3202,2Argentinien
9Manuel NeuerBayern München195,229,6200,0Deutschland
10BusquetsFC Barcelona193,927,3196,7Spanien
13MarceloReal Madrid185,927,5189,2Brasilien
14PiquéFC Barcelona185,828,8190,7Spanien
16Cristiano RonaldoReal Madrid182,730,8192,3Portugal
19Mats HummelsBorussia Dortmund181,926,8183,8Deutschland
20Toni KroosReal Madrid180,525,8180,8Deutschland
21Arturo VidalBayern München179,528,4184,2Chile
28Wayne RooneyManchester United176,930,0182,9England
30David AlabaBayern München176,723,3181,5Österreich
34NeymarFC Barcelona175,623,8179,2Brasilien
46Eden HazardChelsea FC173,424,8175,1Belgien
48Arjen RobbenBayern München173,031,8188,0Niederlande
49James RodríguezReal Madrid172,924,3175,3Kolumbien
53Iker CasillasFC Porto170,434,4176,9Spanien
54Alexis SánchezArsenal FC170,026,8171,9Chile
59Kun AgüeroManchester City168,327,4171,4Argentinien
63Luis SuárezFC Barcelona167,428,8172,3Uruguay
69Dani AlvesFC Barcelona165,932,5183,9Brasilien
73Javier MascheranoFC Barcelona164,431,4177,5Argentinien
75IniestaFC Barcelona164,031,5177,5Spanien
93Xabi AlonsoBayern München161,233,9184,3Spanien
97Philipp LahmBayern München160,832,0176,8Deutschland
98Gianluigi BuffonJuventus160,737,8174,4Italien
109Sergio RamosReal Madrid158,929,6164,5Spanien
114Carlos TévezBoca Juniors157,931,8172,8Argentinien
116Luka ModrićReal Madrid157,730,2164,3Kroatien
131De GeaManchester United155,725,0170,7Spanien
133Gareth BaleReal Madrid155,426,3156,1Wales
135David SilvaManchester City155,329,8161,0Spanien
136Ivan RakitićFC Barcelona155,327,7158,8Kroatien
146David LuizParis Saint-Germain154,428,5159,1Brasilien
149Vincent KompanyManchester City154,229,6159,7Belgien
152ThiagoBayern München154,024,6156,1Spanien
155PepeReal Madrid153,832,7172,5Portugal
158Thiago SilvaParis Saint-Germain153,531,1165,1Brasilien
171Giorgio ChielliniJuventus152,331,3164,5Italien
183Zlatan IbrahimovićParis Saint-Germain151,334,1175,3Schweden
208Dani CarvajalReal Madrid150,023,8153,4Spanien
230Jordi AlbaFC Barcelona148,826,6150,2Spanien
288John TerryChelsea FC145,934,9176,2England
294Raphaël VaraneReal Madrid145,522,5152,8Frankreich
342Diego GodínAtletico Madrid143,029,7148,6Uruguay
358Branislav IvanovićChelsea FC142,331,7156,9Serbien
379Yaya TouréManchester City141,632,5159,5Elfenbeinküste
397Marco VerrattiParis Saint-Germain140,423,0146,3Italien
536Paul PogbaJuventus135,322,7142,3Frankreich
613Douglas CostaBayern München132,925,2134,1Brasilien
909Keylor NavasReal Madrid126,328,9131,1Costa Rica
2008Andrea PirloNew York City FC115,136,4157,8Italien

Top-100 All Time

A quick data dump upon request. I leave the commenting to you guys. Just quickly the filter criteria. This includes all non-Goalkeepers in the database with at least 20000 minutes of match time that didn't play a game after 1.1.2014.

Rank Player PeakGI Last
Game
Age Last
Competition
Last
Team
1 Johan Cruyff 216,06 13-Mai-84 68,5 Eredivisie Feyenoord
2 Férenc Puskás 214,36 21-Nov-65 88,6 Primera Division Real Madrid
3 José Santamaría 212,52 19-Dez-65 86,3 Primera Division Real Madrid
4 Luc Nilis 211,2 09-Sep-00 48,4 Premier League Aston Villa
5 Gorostiza 204,83 24-Mrz-46 106,8 Primera Division Valencia CF
6 Ivan Nielsen 200,2 04-Nov-92 59,1 Superliga FC København
7 Shota Arveladze 199,68 18-Mai-08 42,7 Primera Division Levante UD
8 Ronald de Boer 198,29 12-Mai-04 45,5 Championship Rangers FC
9 Frank Rijkaard 195,57 28-Mai-95 53,1 Eredivisie AFC Ajax
10 Henrik Larsson 194,93 28-Okt-09 44,1 Allsvenskan Helsingborgs IF
11 Marco van Basten 193,93 26-Mai-93 51,0 Serie A AC Milan
12 Søren Lerby 190,14 06-Mai-90 57,8 Eredivisie PSV Eindhoven
13 Danny Blind 189,31 16-Mai-99 54,3 Eredivisie AFC Ajax
14 Pep Guardiola 189,24 30-Apr-06 44,8 Primera Division Dorados de Sinaloa
15 Alfredo Di Stéfano 188,68 03-Apr-66 89,3 Primera Division Espanyol Barcelona
16 Zárraga 187,57 25-Mrz-62 85,3 Primera Division Real Madrid
17 Ronaldo 186,7 03-Feb-11 39,1 Serie A Corinthians SP
18 Antônio Carlos 185,85 02-Dez-07 46,5 Serie A Santos FC
19 Hannes Bongartz 185,8 05-Nov-83 64,1 2. Bundesliga 1. FC Kaiserslautern
20 Marquitos 185,11 26-Apr-64 82,6 Segunda B Grupo 4 Real Murcia
21 Marc Overmars 185 01-Mai-09 42,6 Eerste Divisie Go Ahead Eagles
22 Yasuhiko Okudera 184,4 26-Apr-86 63,7 Bundesliga Werder Bremen
23 Jari Litmanen 183,83 29-Okt-11 44,7 Veikkausliiga HJK Helsinki
24 Giovanni Trapattoni 182,72 13-Feb-72 76,7 Serie B AS Varese 1910
25 Herbert Wimmer 182,31 29-Apr-78 71,0 Bundesliga Bor. Mönchengladbach
26 Gary Stevens 182,28 29-Sep-93 52,6 Championship Rangers FC
27 Frank de Boer 181,94 26-Jun-04 45,5 Championship Rangers FC
28 Thomas Schaaf 181,91 13-Mai-95 54,5 Bundesliga Werder Bremen
29 Dennis Bergkamp 181,59 07-Mai-06 46,5 Premier League Arsenal FC
30 Roberto Di Matteo 181,42 28-Sep-00 45,4 Premier League Chelsea FC
31 Wolfgang Kraus 181,42 29-Nov-86 62,2 Bundesliga Eintracht Frankfurt
32 Escudero 181,3 04-Mai-58 87,9 Primera Division Atletico Madrid
33 Frank Neubarth 181,13 18-Mai-96 53,3 Bundesliga Werder Bremen
34 Rafael Lesmes 180,64 30-Apr-61 89,0 Segunda Division Real Valladolid
35 Paul Scholes 180,33 19-Mai-13 41,0 Premier League Manchester United
36 Gento 179,49 21-Mai-71 82,0 Primera Division Real Madrid
37 Joan Segarra 179,19 25-Apr-64 88,0 Primera Division FC Barcelona
38 Andreas Möller 179,15 28-Feb-04 48,2 Bundesliga Eintracht Frankfurt
39 Dieter Hoeneß 179,05 17-Jun-87 62,8 Bundesliga Bayern München
40 Martijn Reuser 178,98 02-Mai-10 40,8 Eerste Divisie NAC Breda
41 Finidi George 178,24 08-Mai-04 44,6 Segunda Division RCD Mallorca
42 Gerald Vanenburg 177,76 18-Dez-99 51,7 2. Bundesliga TSV 1860 München
43 Hans Pflügler 177,44 26-Aug-95 55,6 Regionalliga Bayern Bayern München II
44 Johnny Bosman 177,04 28-Apr-02 50,8 Eredivisie AZ Alkmaar
45 Toninho Cerezo 176,06 21-Apr-94 60,5 Serie A Cruzeiro EC
46 Deco 175,9 01-Aug-13 38,2 Serie A Fluminense RJ
47 Siniša Mihajlović 175,87 14-Apr-06 46,7 Serie A Inter
48 Lothar Matthäus 175,4 20-Jun-00 54,6 Bundesliga Bayern München
49 Wolfgang Weber 175,3 22-Jan-77 71,3 Bundesliga 1. FC Köln
50 César Rodríguez 175,1 10-Apr-60 95,3 Segunda Division Elche CF
51 Ivica Vastić 175,06 21-Mai-09 46,1 Erste Liga LASK Linz
52 Uli Borowka 175,02 09-Dez-95 53,4 Bundesliga Werder Bremen
53 Paul Breitner 174,76 28-Mai-83 64,2 Bundesliga Bayern München
54 Cafu 174,7 18-Mai-08 45,4 Serie A AC Milan
55 Pavel Nedved 174,26 31-Mai-09 43,2 Serie A Juventus
56 Gary Neville 174,06 01-Jan-11 40,7 Premier League Manchester United
57 Claude Makélélé 174,05 29-Mai-11 42,7 Ligue 1 Paris Saint-Germain
58 Jens Nowotny 173,99 08-Aug-06 41,8 1. HNL Dinamo Zagreb
59 Hristo Stoichkov 173,65 26-Okt-03 49,8 Major League Soccer D.C. United
60 Lauren 173,63 25-Apr-10 38,8 Segunda Division Cordoba CF
61 Berti Vogts 173,42 02-Jun-79 68,8 Bundesliga Bor. Mönchengladbach
62 Ole Gunnar Solskjær 173,32 19-Mai-07 42,7 Premier League Manchester United
63 Hugo Sánchez 173,11 19-Jun-94 57,4 Primera Division Rayo Vallecano
64 Jan Mølby 172,96 14-Mrz-95 52,3 Premier League Liverpool FC
65 Giovane Élber 172,36 06-Sep-06 43,3 Serie A Cruzeiro EC
66 Juan Sánchez 172,3 13-Mai-06 43,8 Primera Division Celta Vigo
67 Felix Magath 172,3 29-Jun-86 62,3 Bundesliga Hamburger SV
68 Dragan Holcer 172,2 29-Mai-82 70,8 Bundesliga FC Schalke 04
69 Stefan Beinlich 172,18 08-Mrz-08 43,8 3. Liga Hansa Rostock
70 Sergi Barjuan 172,13 29-Mai-05 43,8 Primera Division Atletico Madrid
71 Michel Platini 172,12 17-Mai-87 60,3 Serie A Juventus
72 Luís Figo 172,04 31-Mai-09 43,0 Serie A Inter
73 Beom-geun Cha 171,72 17-Jun-89 62,4 Bundesliga Bayer Leverkusen
74 Dieter Lindner 171,64 05-Jun-71 76,4 Bundesliga Eintracht Frankfurt
75 Tomás Galásek 171,62 23-Mai-09 42,8 Bundesliga Bor. Mönchengladbach
76 Butragueño 171,42 22-Jan-95 52,3 Primera Division Real Madrid
77 Miroslav Đukić 171,37 01-Jun-03 49,7 Primera Division Valencia CF
78 Johan Neeskens 171,28 18-Mai-85 64,2 Eredivisie FC Groningen
79 Hierro 171,08 15-Mai-05 47,6 Championship Bolton Wanderers
80 Gilberto Silva 171,08 08-Dez-13 39,1 Serie A Atletico Mineiro
81 Ruud Gullit 171,03 28-Jan-98 53,2 Premier League Chelsea FC
82 Celestine Babayaro 170,96 31-Mrz-07 37,2 Premier League Newcastle United
83 Frans Thijssen 170,87 16-Jun-91 63,8 Eredivisie Vitesse
84 Wolfgang Overath 170,76 28-Mai-77 72,1 Bundesliga 1. FC Köln
85 Jan Heintze 170,53 25-Mai-03 52,3 Eredivisie PSV Eindhoven
86 Patrick Vieira 170,49 14-Mai-11 39,3 Premier League Manchester City
87 Artur Ullrich 170,45 26-Mai-90 58,1 3. Liga Hansa Rostock
88 Carsten Jancker 170,43 31-Mai-09 41,2 Bundesliga SV Mattersburg
89 Maguregui 170,4 26-Apr-64 81,7 Primera Division Espanyol Barcelona
90 Chris Sutton 170,4 23-Dez-06 42,7 Premier League Aston Villa
91 Iriondo 170,19 10-Apr-55 97,0 Primera Division Real Sociedad
92 Alan Thompson 170,18 06-Mai-07 41,8 Championship Leeds United
93 Norman Hunter 170,17 05-Mai-79 72,0 Championship Bristol City
94 Ferran Olivella 169,85 21-Mai-69 79,3 Primera Division FC Barcelona
95 Gerd Müller 169,82 10-Feb-79 70,0 Bundesliga Bayern München
96 Filippo Inzaghi 169,8 13-Mai-12 42,3 Serie A AC Milan
97 Johann Vogel 169,8 19-Feb-12 38,7 Super League Grasshoppers Zürich
98 Andreas Hinkel 169,65 05-Mai-12 33,6 2. Bundesliga SC Freiburg
99 Gert Verheyen 169,54 05-Mai-06 45,1 Eerste klasse Club Brugge KV
100 Franz Beckenbauer 169,48 29-Mai-82 70,2 Bundesliga Hamburger SV

Bayern Munich vs. Bundesliga

Without any doubt, Bayern Munich is the best team in the Bundesliga. One of the best, possibly even the best, in the world. "But are they better than the rest of the Bundeslga combined?", asks @Halbraumrandale.

So what happens if we pick the best XI from all non-Bayern Bundesliga players and let them play against Munich? Would they be able to compete? Obviously, this is only a though experiment, because in practice we know they aren't used to play with each other and maybe the combination makes little sense from a tactical point of view. But we can use this as a baseline. If Bayern is better than the rest of the Bundesliga combined in this thought experiment, than in practice they will be way better than them.

Let's start with the Bayern XI, ignoring injuries and tactical constraints.

Player Team Goalimpact Player Age PeakGI
Thomas Müller Bayern München 211.97 26.08 212.07
Mario Götze Bayern München 200.77 23.33 205.91
Robert Lewandowski Bayern München 198.27 27.08 200.64
Manuel Neuer Bayern München 195.47 29.50 199.66
Arturo Vidal Bayern München 178.75 28.33 183.30
Arjen Robben Bayern München 175.90 31.67 190.26
David Alaba Bayern München 174.24 23.25 179.55
Jérôme Boateng Bayern München 170.79 27.08 173.09
Rafinha Bayern München 166.11 30.08 172.28
Xabi Alonso Bayern München 160.79 33.83 183.29
Philipp Lahm Bayern München 160.50 31.92 175.86

This is an average Goalimpact of 181. It even seems to make remotely sense in that they have all positions covered to actually play like this. Opponents should thank god that they never did.

So who are the best of the rest? Again just a selection without tactical considerations and injuries. Just one edit: We forced a goalkeeper in the team (there was no in the top 11) and chose one that is actually playing. Heinz Lindner has a slightly higher Goalimpact than Oliver Baumann, but is only reserve at Frankfurt after Timo Hildebrand.

Player Team Goalimpact Player Age PeakGI
Luiz Gustavo VfL Wolfsburg 183.18 28.17 187.59
Mats Hummels Borussia Dortmund 182.31 26.75 183.99
Kevin Kampl Bayer Leverkusen 176.99 25.00 178.59
Henrikh Mkhitaryan Borussia Dortmund 175.62 26.67 177.09
Tony Jantschke Bor. Mönchengladbach 173.26 25.50 174.06
Salomon Kalou Hertha BSC 167.94 30.17 174.56
André Schürrle VfL Wolfsburg 167.70 24.92 169.42
Nuri Şahin Borussia Dortmund 166.00 27.08 168.28
Łukasz Piszczek Borussia Dortmund 163.68 30.33 171.17
Gonzalo Castro Borussia Dortmund 163.10 28.33 167.61
Oliver Baumann 1899 Hoffenheim 144.94 25.33 157.73

The average of the best players of the rest of Bundesliga is only 169.5. Clearly lower than Bayern Munich's. But what is more striking: Only two players of the rest have a Goalimpact above of Bayern Munich's average, Luiz Gustavo and Mats Hummels. And only narrowly so.

Summary

Even if all other teams cooperate and let a best-of team play Bayern Munich, Pep Guardiola's team is expected to win. Even if we look only at the Goalimpact of the players, ignoring that other factors are likely to side with Munich, too. Yes, they dominate the league.

Update
@Halbraumrandale made this nice pricture from the XI.


The Best XI Ever

In Brazil in summer of 2014, Jogi Löw prepared the German national team to enter the World Cup. He took care of all the details as famously documented in the movie "Die Mannschaft". One detail he addressed earlier was picking the best players to join the team. Germany had that year excellent players to choose from and Löw didn't want to take any risk. He mainly selected by output. And he did a very good job. Actually, for the opening game he fielded a starting XI with a Goalimpact of 179.0, the highest Goalimpact ever, in all competitions, on club and national team level.

From all his players available, he chose the ones with the highest Goalimpact, apart from Bastian Schweinsteiger who missed some weeks of team training due to an injury. That team beat Portugal 4:0 ensuring a good start in the tournament. Also the exactly same team drew a few days later against Ghana 2:2 in the heat of Fortaleza.

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeClubNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Per Mertesacker160.0165.629.7Arsenal FC47543835
Mats Hummels187.5188.425.4Borussia Dortmund32528466
Thomas Müller216.0218.024.8Bayern München37729855
Toni Kroos178.9181.424.4Bayern München31923051
Philipp Lahm164.4173.030.6Bayern München58151993
Manuel Neuer194.6199.128.2Bayern München43840917
Benedikt Höwedes165.8166.326.3FC Schalke 0432928208
Jérôme Boateng169.0169.425.8Bayern München35428593
Mario Götze171.4180.622.0Bayern München20414298
Mesut Özil206.9207.525.7Arsenal FC43833170
Sami Khedira154.7157.227.2Real Madrid34927770
Average179.0182.426.4
Bench
André Schürrle151.7156.123.6Chelsea FC25718827
Miroslav Klose126.1164.236.0Lazio Roma60545175
Roman Weidenfeller139.7145.233.8Borussia Dortmund41438278
Julian Draxler126.2147.320.7FC Schalke 0417011338
Bastian Schweinsteiger181.8187.529.8Bayern München56743606
Matthias Ginter115.7139.920.3SC Freiburg13712556
Lukas Podolski138.9144.029.0Arsenal FC42932205
Kevin Großkreutz145.6145.825.8Borussia Dortmund34527128
Christoph Kramer100.7105.923.3Bor. Mönchengladbach18014941
Shkodran Mustafi106.3115.122.1Sampdoria756182
Erik Durm98.7107.722.1Borussia Dortmund1239537
Ron-Robert Zieler116.6129.525.3Hannover 9617316172
Average129.0140.726.0

When Germany played Brazil in the semi finals, the team's Goalimpact was slightly lower. Featuring aging Miroslaw Klose instead of Mario Götze reduced the Goalimpact more than replacing Per Mertesacker by Bastian Schweinsteiger could improve it.

Notice also that Germany lacked depth in the team. Many bench players had a considerably lower Goalimpact than the first XI. Hence, they were lucky not to suffer multiple injuries. So it is no surprise that the weakest starting XI of Germany in the tournament played the final against Argentina. It had only a Goalimpact of 171.2.

FC Barcelona 2013/2014

The starting XI with the highest Goalimpact, 177.5, ever to play at club level, was Martino's Barcelona in a league game on 15. February 2014 against Rayo Vallecano that they trashed 6:0. It was also the second best starting XI ever after Germany 2014. Again there weren't many options to improve the team's Goalimpact further. Just GI would have chosen Mascherano over the aging Puyol.

Notice how may players have left the team in the meanwhile, mainly to join a Premier League club.

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Busquets206.6207.325.6Spanien30124065
Lionel Messi202.4203.726.6Argentinien46037187
Dani Alves172.1181.730.8Brasilien53445708
Piqué187.2189.327.0Spanien36130563
Alexis Sánchez168.5169.925.1Chile32221786
Iniesta172.6178.229.8Spanien53938371
Pedro165.1166.226.5Spanien27017408
Adriano156.6161.929.3Brasilien35725429
Puyol138.1174.935.8Spanien63655202
Cesc Fàbregas209.3210.926.8Spanien48936983
Victor Valdés173.9178.432.1Spanien52348678
Average177.5183.928.7
Bench
Javier Mascherano175.9181.529.7Argentinien45038045
Alex Song178.2179.126.4Kamerun34127004
Ibrahim Afellay133.7137.627.8Niederlande28520221
Neymar135.4144.622.0Brasilien18214671
Pinto121.2136.138.322620660
Jordi Alba117.8119.524.8Spanien22817260
Cristian Tello115.1122.822.5Spanien [U21]1306210
Average139.6145.927.4

Bayern Munich 2014/2015

The second highest ranked club ever with 177.0 isn't rated much lower. On 11. March 2015, Pep Guardiola's Bayern defeated Shakhtar Donetsk with a humiliating 7:0. Apart from the excellent starting XI this was facilitated by a very early red card against Shakthar.

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Rafinha166.7172.129.5Brasilien Olymp.36330547
David Alaba162.2169.222.7Österreich27122450
Thomas Müller212.5213.425.5Deutschland41833197
Arjen Robben179.2190.631.1Niederlande52739194
Bastian Schweinsteiger180.3189.130.6Deutschland58745018
Manuel Neuer194.9199.228.9Deutschland48245071
Holger Badstuber148.1148.126.0Deutschland27023655
Jérôme Boateng169.6170.726.5Deutschland39231889
Robert Lewandowski196.8197.926.5Polen31725342
Mario Götze186.6193.522.8Deutschland24317029
Franck Ribéry150.6166.031.9Frankreich46737594
Average177.0182.727.5
Bench
Claudio Pizarro119.9161.836.4Peru62344801
Pepe Reina167.8172.432.5Spanien63458921
Philipp Lahm162.7175.131.3Deutschland60654247
Medhi Benatia144.6148.627.8Marokko22719902
Juan Bernat119.4128.522.0Spanien1228762
Dante164.4177.131.3Brasilien33930018
Sebastian Rode109.9112.424.4Deutschland [U21]16912927
Average141.2153.729.4

Overview

And here are the top 25 starting XIs ever according to Goalimpact. Per season the table is showing each team only once, with the highest Goalimpact. Observations:

  • The only non-Spanish, non-German entry is Manchester City from the last two seasons.
  • All entries are from recent years. For the clubs this can be explained by a stronger concentration of top players on few top clubs. I'm not sure what to make for the national team from it. The third best national team is the Netherlands 1998 followed by Germany 1982. So maybe for national teams this is incidental.
  • The highest ranked starting XI ever to lose a match was FC Barcelona (174.8) losing against Real Valladolid 1:0 on the 27th match day of the 2013/2014 season of Primera Division. This is the 21st ranked starting XI. (not in the list below as this was not their best starting XI that season.)


Competition Season Round Team Goalimpact Match
World Cup 2014 in Brazil Group G Germany 179.0 Deutschland - Portugal 4:0
Primera Division 2013/2014 24. Match Day FC Barcelona 177.5 FC Barcelona - Rayo Vallecano 6:0
Champions League 2014/2015 Achtelfinale Bayern München 177.0 Bayern München - Shakhtar Donetsk 7:0
Primera Division 2012/2013 22. Match Day FC Barcelona 176.3 Valencia CF - FC Barcelona 1:1
Bundesliga 2013/2014 27. Match Day Bayern München 175.2 Hertha BSC - Bayern München 1:3
Champions League 2011/2012 Achtelfinale FC Barcelona 174.2 FC Barcelona - Bayer Leverkusen 7:1
Champions League 2014/2015 Final FC Barcelona 172.4 Juventus - FC Barcelona 1:3
EC-Quali. 2014/2015 Group D Germany 172.3 Schottland - Deutschland 2:3
WC-Quali. Europe 2012/2013 Group C Germany 171.9 Schweden - Deutschland 3:5
Bundesliga 2015/2016 1. Match Day Bayern München 171.1 Bayern München - Hamburger SV 5:0
Primera Division 2012/2013 7. Match Day Real Madrid 170.6 FC Barcelona - Real Madrid 2:2
EC 2012 in Poland/Ukraine Final Spain 169.3 Spanien - Italien 4:0
WM-Quali. Europa 2012/2013 Group I Spain 169.1 Spanien - Finnland 1:1
EC 2012 in Poland/Ukraine Group B Germany 168.8 Niederlande - Deutschland 1:2
EC-Quali. 2014/2015 Group C Spain 168.4 Spanien - Slowakei 2:0
Primera Division 2014/2015 17. Match Day Real Madrid 168.3 Valencia CF - Real Madrid 2:1
Champions League 2011/2012 Halbfinale Real Madrid 167.9 Real Madrid - Bayern München 1:3
Confederations Cup 2013 in Brazil Group B Spain 167.2 Nigeria - Spanien 0:3
Primera Division 2015/2016 5. Match Day FC Barcelona 166.5 Celta Vigo - FC Barcelona 4:1
Champions League 2012/2013 Halbfinale Bayern München 165.8 Bayern München - FC Barcelona 4:0
Champions League 2010/2011 Halbfinale FC Barcelona 165.8 FC Barcelona - Real Madrid 1:1
Primera Division 2015/2016 2. Match Day Real Madrid 163.6 Real Madrid - Real Betis 5:0
Champions League 2013/2014 Achtelfinale Real Madrid 163.0 FC Schalke 04 - Real Madrid 1:6
Champions League 2014/2015 Group E Manchester City 160.7 Manchester City - AS Roma 1:1
Premier League 2013/2014 35. Match Day Manchester City 159.8 Manchester City - West Bromwich Albion 3:1




Top-50 Football Players: October 2015 Edition

Only some  tweaks of the aging curve, but not algorithm change this time. Notable points
  • Georginio Wijnaldum just scored four goals in a Premier League game. We were actually surprised that no bigger club than Newcastle took his service this summer. He's been in the top list since the new algorithm in April 2015.
  • David Alaba, James Rodríguez and Neymar finally made it into the list. All absolutely deserved.


Rank Player Team Goalimpact Player Age PeakGI Nationality Previous
Rank
1 Thomas Müller Bayern München 212,0 26,1 212,1 Deutschland 1
2 Mesut Özil Arsenal FC 202,8 27,0 204,8 Deutschland 2
3 Mario Götze Bayern München 200,8 23,3 205,9 Deutschland 10
4 Robert Lewandowski Bayern München 198,3 27,1 200,6 Polen 8
5 Karim Benzema Real Madrid 198,2 27,8 202,0 Frankreich 5
6 Cesc Fàbregas Chelsea FC 198,1 28,4 202,7 Spanien 3
7 Theo Walcott Arsenal FC 197,8 26,6 198,9 England 7
8 Lionel Messi FC Barcelona 197,2 28,3 201,7 Argentinien 4
9 Manuel Neuer Bayern München 195,5 29,5 199,7 Deutschland 9
10 Busquets FC Barcelona 194,2 27,3 196,8 Spanien 6
11 Pedro Chelsea FC 189,5 28,2 193,9 Spanien 16
12 Stefan Ilsanker RB Leipzig 187,1 26,3 187,9 Österreich 11
13 Toby Alderweireld Tottenham Hotspur 187,0 26,6 188,2 Belgien 14
14 Marcelo Real Madrid 186,9 27,4 189,9 Brasilien 13
15 Piqué FC Barcelona 186,6 28,7 191,4 Spanien 12
16 Luiz Gustavo VfL Wolfsburg 183,2 28,2 187,6 Brasilien 15
17 Cristiano Ronaldo Real Madrid 182,5 30,7 191,6 Portugal 25
18 Mats Hummels Borussia Dortmund 182,3 26,8 184,0 Deutschland 18
19 Emilio Izaguirre Celtic FC 181,7 29,4 187,1 Honduras 26
20 Toni Kroos Real Madrid 181,4 25,8 181,8 Deutschland 20
21 Georginio Wijnaldum Newcastle United 180,5 24,9 182,2 Niederlande 17
22 Kwadwo Asamoah Juventus 179,1 26,8 180,8 Ghana 23
23 Arturo Vidal Bayern München 178,8 28,3 183,3 Chile 28
24 Martin Hinteregger RB Salzburg 178,4 23,1 184,3 Österreich 41
25 Bastian Schweinsteiger Manchester United 178,3 31,2 190,1 Deutschland 31
26 Wayne Rooney Manchester United 177,8 29,9 183,5 England 32
27 Andriy Yarmolenko Dinamo Kiev 177,7 25,9 177,8 Ukraine 30
28 Andreas Ulmer RB Salzburg 177,0 29,9 182,8 Österreich 35
29 Kevin Kampl Bayer Leverkusen 177,0 25,0 178,6 Slowenien 24
30 Andriy Pyatov Shakhtar Donetsk 176,8 31,3 180,8 Ukraine 19
31 Victor Valdés Manchester United 176,8 33,8 182,2 Spanien 38
32 Petr Čech Arsenal FC 176,7 33,3 181,9 Tschechien 36
33 Arjen Robben Bayern München 175,9 31,7 190,3 Niederlande 46
34 Nani Fenerbahce 175,6 28,8 180,6 Portugal 27
35 Henrikh Mkhitaryan Borussia Dortmund 175,6 26,7 177,1 Armenien 37
36 Joe Hart Manchester City 175,0 28,4 179,4 England 39
37 Fraser Forster Southampton FC 174,9 27,5 179,6 England 33
38 Gaël Clichy Manchester City 174,9 30,2 181,6 Frankreich 42
39 Jonny Evans West Bromwich Albion 174,7 27,8 178,4 Nordirland 29
40 Ángel Di María Paris Saint-Germain 174,5 27,7 178,0 Argentinien 40
41 Eden Hazard Chelsea FC 174,5 24,8 176,4 Belgien 44
42 David Alaba Bayern München 174,2 23,3 179,6 Österreich 69
43 Jeremain Lens Sunderland AFC 174,0 27,8 178,0 Niederlande 22
44 Gregory van der Wiel Paris Saint-Germain 173,7 27,7 177,2 Niederlande 21
45 Tony Jantschke Bor. Mönchengladbach 173,3 25,5 174,1 Deutschland 34
46 James Rodríguez Real Madrid 172,8 24,3 175,6 Kolumbien 59
47 Neymar FC Barcelona 172,0 23,7 176,1 Brasilien 56
48 Daniel Agger Brøndby IF 171,7 30,8 181,6 Dänemark 45
49 Douglas Dinamo Moskva 171,6 27,8 175,3 Niederlande 43
50 Jonatan Soriano RB Salzburg 171,5 30,0 177,4 Spanien 60



Neymar's Goalimpact skyrocketed in 2015. Maybe the
World Cup was just one year early for him.


David Alaba is for many one of the few players that
isn't easy for Bayern Munich to replace.


James Rodriguez was as future world-class player end
of 2009 already. He now certainly is.