Colombia vs Uruguay: Goalimpact of Lineups


Colombia

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
David Ospina92.092.025.8OGC Nice23021046
Cristián Zapata101.7105.827.7AC Milan28925962
Mario Yepes38.3122.338.4Atalanta43939328
Pablo Armero115.1119.027.6West Ham United21117335
Juan Zúñiga107.3112.628.5SSC Napoli22717435
Carlos Sánchez92.998.128.3Elche CF23219223
Abel Aguilar93.899.729.4Toulouse FC23419283
James Rodríguez123.7135.222.9AS Monaco19714285
Juan Cuadrado107.0107.126.0ACF Fiorentina16312532
Teófilo Gutiérrez111.7117.329.0River Plate19315381
Jackson Martínez120.1124.227.7FC Porto19616586
Average100.3112.128.3
Bench
Camilo Vargas102.6102.625.3Santa Fe15714542
Faryd Mondragón124.2124.242.9Deportivo Cali52548716
Santiago Arias94.8108.522.4PSV Eindhoven1108454
Eder Álvarez Balanta97.1118.321.3River Plate423747
Carlos Valdes113.6119.329.0San Lorenzo20919242
Carlos Carbonero102.6110.123.8River Plate18915677
Fredy Guarín114.3119.127.9Inter24314678
Alexander Mejia108.6109.025.9Atletico Nacional21518590
Juan Quintero87.8108.121.3FC Porto1265902
Víctor Ibarbo98.4105.224.0Cagliari Calcio20413387
Carlos Bacca111.8116.127.8Sevilla FC21415293
Adrián Ramos108.9114.128.3Hertha BSC21517633
Average105.4112.926.7


Uruguay

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Fernando Muslera109.1109.128.0Galatasaray26624768
Diego Godín123.1128.328.3Atletico Madrid33830431
José Giménez85.4124.119.3Atletico Madrid282410
Maxi Pereira136.1142.430.0SL Benfica31827198
Martín Cáceres109.5112.427.2Juventus24620588
Álvaro Pereira121.6126.928.5Sao Paulo FC29024489
Cristian Rodríguez107.7113.128.7Atletico Madrid32318173
Egidio Arévalo87.6112.432.4Monarcas Morelia20417574
Álvaro González109.5115.429.6Lazio Roma26617885
Diego Forlán86.2129.335.0Cerezo Osaka55640703
Edinson Cavani122.1125.327.3Paris Saint-Germain34628093
Average108.9121.728.6
Bench
Rodrigo Muñoz123.8123.832.3Libertad20919381
Martín Silva108.0108.031.2Olimpia Asuncion21419831
Jorge Fucile128.8134.729.5FC Porto16914320
Sebastián Coates118.4126.723.7Nacional12310660
Walter Gargano110.1116.229.8Parma FC29423869
Nicolás Lodeiro113.8116.625.2Botafogo RJ1328804
Diego Pérez82.7115.234.0Bologna FC34024965
Gastón Ramírez106.8115.723.5Southampton FC1519591
Abel Hernández103.2110.823.8US Palermo1378107
Christian Stuani97.9102.027.7Espanyol Barcelona20613634
Average109.4117.028.1


Odds based on starting XI: Colombia: 30.9%, draw: 30.7%, Uruguay: 38.4%

Uruguay vs England: Match Preview


Uruguay

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Fernando Muslera109.1109.128.0Galatasaray26624768
Diego Godín123.1128.328.3Atletico Madrid33830431
José Giménez85.4124.119.3Atletico Madrid282410
Martín Cáceres109.5112.427.2Juventus24620588
Álvaro Pereira121.6126.928.5Sao Paulo FC29024489
Cristian Rodríguez107.7113.128.7Atletico Madrid32318173
Nicolás Lodeiro113.8116.625.2Botafogo RJ1328804
Egidio Arévalo87.6112.432.4Monarcas Morelia20417574
Álvaro González109.5115.429.6Lazio Roma26617885
Luis Suárez144.5147.827.3Liverpool FC37732230
Edinson Cavani122.1125.327.3Paris Saint-Germain34628093
Average112.2121.027.4
Bench
Rodrigo Muñoz123.8123.832.3Libertad20919381
Martín Silva108.0108.031.2Olimpia Asuncion21419831
Jorge Fucile128.8134.729.5FC Porto16914320
Sebastián Coates118.4126.723.7Nacional12310660
Walter Gargano110.1116.229.8Parma FC29423869
Diego Pérez82.7115.234.0Bologna FC34024965
Gastón Ramírez106.8115.723.5Southampton FC1519591
Abel Hernández103.2110.823.8US Palermo1378107
Diego Forlán86.2129.335.0Cerezo Osaka55640703
Christian Stuani97.9102.027.7Espanyol Barcelona20613634
Average106.6118.229.1


England

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Joe Hart132.4132.427.1Manchester City33431143
Glen Johnson131.9138.029.8Liverpool FC39134572
Leighton Baines119.1125.029.5Everton FC44939213
Gary Cahill109.7115.028.4Chelsea FC34731580
Phil Jagielka114.1135.331.8Everton FC49844744
Steven Gerrard133.2165.434.0Liverpool FC72761030
Jordan Henderson121.6128.623.9Liverpool FC24619167
Raheem Sterling97.8135.119.5Liverpool FC956401
Daniel Sturridge124.3128.624.8Liverpool FC21112709
Wayne Rooney172.8178.128.6Manchester United57446202
Danny Welbeck109.1118.023.5Manchester United20213141
Average124.2136.327.4
Bench
Ben Foster89.489.431.2West Bromwich Albion24322568
Fraser Forster140.0140.026.2Celtic FC21519848
Chris Smalling113.4118.424.5Manchester United15712265
Phil Jones108.8122.922.3Manchester United15212267
Luke Shaw92.0136.318.9Southampton FC705877
Jack Wilshere112.0125.522.4Arsenal FC15811442
Frank Lampard120.9173.635.9Chelsea FC87374599
James Milner119.4124.728.4Manchester City51937338
Ross Barkley87.4114.720.5Everton FC865633
Rickie Lambert107.8132.132.3Southampton FC24821171
Adam Lallana119.6119.826.1Southampton FC25620564
Average110.1127.026.2


Uruguay vs Costa Rica: Goalimpacts of Lineups


Uruguay

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Fernando Muslera109.1109.128.0Galatasaray26624768
Diego Lugano107.1137.233.6West Bromwich Albion30427372
Diego Godín123.1128.328.3Atletico Madrid33830431
Maxi Pereira136.1142.430.0SL Benfica31827198
Martín Cáceres109.5112.427.2Juventus24620588
Walter Gargano110.1116.229.8Parma FC29423869
Cristian Rodríguez107.7113.128.7Atletico Madrid32318173
Egidio Arévalo87.6112.432.4Monarcas Morelia20417574
Diego Forlán86.2129.335.0Cerezo Osaka55640703
Christian Stuani97.9102.027.7Espanyol Barcelona20613634
Edinson Cavani122.1125.327.3Paris Saint-Germain34628093
Average108.8120.729.8
Bench
Rodrigo Muñoz123.8123.832.3Libertad20919381
Martín Silva108.0108.031.2Olimpia Asuncion21419831
Jorge Fucile128.8134.729.5FC Porto16914320
José Giménez85.4124.119.3Atletico Madrid282410
Sebastián Coates118.4126.723.7Nacional12310660
Álvaro Pereira121.6126.928.5Sao Paulo FC29024489
Nicolás Lodeiro113.8116.625.2Botafogo RJ1328804
Diego Pérez82.7115.234.0Bologna FC34024965
Gastón Ramírez106.8115.723.5Southampton FC1519591
Álvaro González109.5115.429.6Lazio Roma26617885
Abel Hernández103.2110.823.8US Palermo1378107
Luis Suárez144.5147.827.3Liverpool FC37732230
Average112.2122.127.3


Costa Rica

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Keylor Navas96.996.927.5Levante UD14713579
Giancarlo González103.2103.926.3Columbus Crew736435
Michael Umaña85.4107.331.9CD Chivas918059
Óscar Duarte106.0109.525.0Club Brugge KV483976
Júnior Díaz107.9120.130.81. FSV Mainz 0519815776
Cristian Gamboa112.5117.324.6Rosenborg BK988692
Celso Borges110.4111.325.8AIK Solna20117668
Christian Bolaños101.5108.130.0FC Köbenhavn24918799
Yeltsin Tejeda98.4112.822.2131001
Joel Campbell110.6126.521.9Olympiakos Piräus1217725
Bryan Ruiz115.6121.028.8PSV Eindhoven29723106
Average104.4112.226.8
Bench
Patrick Pemberton100.8100.832.1LD Alajuelense201860
Daniel Cambronero93.193.128.4CS Herediano9837
Johnny Acosta100.9114.430.8LD Alajuelense292728
Dave Myrie101.2101.226.0CS Herediano8641
Waylon Francis100.2108.323.7Columbus Crew191733
Roy Miller106.1112.029.5New York RB17013788
Michael Barrantes101.1112.830.7Aalesunds FK13811310
Esteban Granados99.4104.828.6CS Herediano11777
Diego Calvo93.5103.823.2Valerenga IF452722
José Cubero101.4104.727.3CS Herediano251836
Randall Brenes92.0104.930.8CS Cartagines583087
Marcos Ureña103.4109.424.3Kuban Krasnodar441950
Average99.4105.928.0


Backtesting: Confederations Cup

Ultimately, the meaning of analysis is to either to improve or to predict. Being on the top-down side of analysis, my realm is the prediction of player performance and, based on this, team performance. Every prediction should be checked after the fact, so we can learn and improve.

Before the Confederations Cup I posted this ranking of national teams according to Goalimpact and other metrics. So how did they fare?


Betfair had all games right, just based on the odds of the World Cup (sic!) title. It was not entirely level playing field though, as Brazil's home advantage has been factored in into the odds while the other measures just rank the teams and thus got the final wrong. In all other games of Brazil, they would have been the favorite even without the home advantage.

However, we can still conclude that the cup was without any big surprises and was very predictable unless you use a very defunct scoring system such as the FIFA uses for their world ranking list. However, the market values published at transfermarkt.de are also not a perfect proxy for playing strength. Assuming transfermarkt.de publishes correct estimates of true market values, one must concluded that Mexican players are undervalued or Japanese overvalued.

Anyway, I'm content with Goalimpact's predictions. But the bar was low at this tournament. Everything but the final was right, so would I predict all the same? No! Of course not. Even if the predictions were correct, there is much to learn. Tahiti was rated far too good by Goalimpact and received a hefty downgrade as result of this tournament. This will also lead to a revaluation of historic Games of Tahiti with the new lower value and, in turn, common opponents will also experience a second order downgrade. Mainly this effects OFC countries. On the upside Brazil's performance raised the team's Goalimpact.

Uruguay's National Team at the Confed Cup

To continue posting all teams at the Confederatinos Cup, here is the one of Uruguay. Now only Nigeria to go.

Player GoalImpact Age Team Games Minutes
Goalkeeper
Fernando Muslera 116,4 27,0 Galatasaray 213 19.774
Martin Silva 107,4 30,2 Olimpia Asuncion 157 14.468
Juan Castillo 101,2 35,1 Danubio FC 144 13.263
Defender
Maxi Pereira 134,5 29,0 SL Benfica 256 21.880
Diego Lugano 133,6 32,6 Malaga CF 255 23.111
Diego Godin 119,0 27,3 Atletico Madrid 255 22.788
Sebastian Coates 116,6 22,7 Liverpool FC 106 9.213
Matias Aguirregaray 109,7 24,2 CA Penarol 83 6.325
Martin Caceres 108,5 26,2 Juventus 189 15.642
Midfielder
Alvaro Pereira 123,8 27,5 Inter 269 23.286
Cristian Rodriguez 120,8 27,7 Atletico Madrid 259 15.012
Walter Gargano 114,5 28,9 Inter 252 20.572
Andres Scotti 113,7 37,5 Nacional 214 18.731
Nicolas Lodeiro 111,8 24,2 Botafogo RJ 82 5.005
Alvaro Gonzalez 111,6 28,6 Lazio Roma 190 13.062
Sebastian Eguren 106,2 32,4 Libertad 194 13.899
Gaston Ramirez 105,5 22,5 Southampton FC 115 7.965
Egidio Arevalo 103,2 31,4 US Palermo 171 14.724
Diego Perez 102,3 33,0 Bologna FC 292 21.834
Forward
Luis Suarez 137,1 26,4 Liverpool FC 320 27.215
Diego Forlan 121,5 34,0 Internacional RS 495 36.660
Edinson Cavani 118,4 26,3 SSC Napoli 295 23.792
Abel Hernandez 98,8 22,8 US Palermo 105 5.863