Everton FC vs VfL Wolfsburg: Lineups

The starting XIs are about equal if only a slight advantage for Wolfsburg. But the home field advantage fives Everton the edge,

Everton FC: 48.9%
Draw: 28.9%
VfL Wolfsburg: 22.3%

Everton FC

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Steven Naismith105.7111.428.0Schottland31521461
Romelu Lukaku106.9123.221.3Belgien20313638
Tim Howard149.8150.935.5USA48244950
Seamus Coleman108.9109.126.1Irland17614190
Gareth Barry115.4147.833.5England66057055
James McCarthy92.397.623.8Irland22919746
Kevin Mirallas114.8117.526.9Belgien32820358
Aiden McGeady111.8118.028.4Irland36726695
Leighton Baines112.6120.029.8England45439678
John Stones100.4122.920.3England [U21]644996
Phil Jagielka111.6136.832.0England50345209
Average111.8123.227.8
Bench
Christian Atsu104.3114.022.7Ghana1006620
Leon Osman93.1124.433.3England40732451
Darron Gibson107.4109.926.8Irland1389281
Antolín Alcaraz91.6117.132.1Paraguay20518477
Muhamed Bešic110.3122.722.0Bosnien-Herzegowina12710964
Joel97.3128.024.2413807
Samuel Eto'o128.7160.933.5Kamerun63353374
Average104.7125.327.8


VfL Wolfsburg

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Ivica Olic99.8143.535.0Kroatien35624016
Kevin De Bruyne107.1114.823.2Belgien18614173
Sebastian Jung122.7126.824.2Deutschland [U21]24521984
Diego Benaglio116.4119.431.0Schweiz34932271
Daniel Caligiuri111.3113.126.720013303
Luiz Gustavo137.3140.627.1Brasilien25420097
Naldo115.2139.932.0Brasilien33229967
Maximilian Arnold113.2135.620.3Deutschland [U21]1129335
Ricardo Rodríguez105.5117.722.0Schweiz14812843
Robin Knoche119.6130.822.3Deutschland [U21]16214083
Junior Malanda98.6122.520.0Belgien [U21]816488
Average113.3127.725.8
Bench
Nicklas Bendtner124.8126.626.7Dänemark29618325
Josuha Guilavogui109.1113.823.9Frankreich1339784
Timm Klose107.0107.926.3Schweiz14112040
Aaron Hunt98.0103.828.0Deutschland [U21]33223463
Max Grün111.4118.127.411911065
Marcel Schäfer99.5109.230.3Deutschland36130493
Mateusz Klich98.0102.024.3Polen1269787
Average106.8111.626.7



Bayern München vs VfL Wolfsburg: Goalimpact of Lineups

The odds based on starting XI show Bayern as clear favorite. But Goalimpact is slightly more skeptical than the betting markets. This is at least partly due to the low ratings of Bernat and Gaudino.

Bayern München: 66.3% (Home)
Draw: 22.3%
VfL Wolfsburg: 11.5%

Bayern München

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Manuel Neuer191.4197.128.3Deutschland41038408
Dante133.6147.830.8Brasilien31328034
Juan Bernat105.1120.321.4Spanien [U21]855752
Philipp Lahm195.9209.530.8Deutschland58552427
David Alaba131.6142.922.1Österreich24419998
Holger Badstuber128.3130.924.8Deutschland23921340
Gianluca Gaudino67.0114.717.8271931
Mario Götze147.7158.722.2Deutschland20514057
Robert Lewandowski144.0144.125.9Polen28222524
Arjen Robben153.4165.330.5Niederlande49936884
Thomas Müller173.5175.924.9Deutschland35728296
Average142.9155.225.4
Bench
Pepe Reina171.2173.331.9Spanien62658177
Xherdan Shaqiri130.1138.822.8Schweiz21213884
Lucas Scholl65.0110.318.1241395
Sebastian Rode106.9111.823.8Deutschland [U21]14812119
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg105.1140.119.0Dänemark [U21]705158
Claudio Pizarro103.9155.435.8Peru61044418
Julian Green101.9135.119.2USA564300
Average112.0137.824.4


VfL Wolfsburg

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Max Grün111.4118.327.311610755
Sebastian Jung123.1127.024.1Deutschland [U21]24321798
Naldo116.0139.431.9Brasilien32929657
Robin Knoche119.6130.522.2Deutschland [U21]15913773
Ricardo Rodríguez105.7117.721.9Schweiz14512533
Vieirinha106.3112.528.5Portugal23216692
Aaron Hunt98.5103.927.9Deutschland [U21]33023326
Kevin De Bruyne107.3114.823.1Belgien18313863
Luiz Gustavo137.6140.527.0Brasilien25219979
Josuha Guilavogui109.4114.123.8Frankreich1309474
Ivica Olic100.4142.934.9Kroatien35323729
Average112.3123.826.6
Bench
Patrick Drewes105.9164.421.5797378
Marcel Schäfer100.1108.930.2Deutschland36130493
Timm Klose107.0107.726.3Schweiz14112040
Daniel Caligiuri111.4112.926.619713197
Junior Malanda98.3122.919.9Belgien [U21]786345
Maximilian Arnold112.7135.420.2Deutschland [U21]1099092
Bas Dost103.3105.125.2Niederlande [U21]18413690
Average105.5122.524.3





DFB-Pokal: Bayern München vs. VfL Wolfsburg

Just a short preview on tomorrow's match in the DFB-Pokal semifinal. Expected lineups are taken from kicker.de.

Bayern München



VfL Wolfsburg


Some Thoughts

Clearly Bayern has the better team. Even if they don't play with all the best players, they quality is way above Wolfsburg's. Together with the home advantage, there is nearly no doubt to who is going to advance to the final. A player to watch is Wolfsburg's Arnold. He is only 18 years old and played a superb season in the U19. It will be his fourth match with the A team. His Goalimpact is very high, so I'm confident he will manage to settle in Bundesliga.

Odds

The expected result, assuming an open and offensive play, is 3.075 : 1.407. This implies the following odds.

Goalimpact Betfair
Bayern 83,1% 84,2%
x 7,4% 11,0%
Wolfsburg 9,5% 4,7%

Goalimpact is somewhat more optimistic about Wolfsburg's chances than the betting markets. This results mainly from a lower probability of a draw as offensive play is assumed and that suits Bayern better than Wolfsburg.

Federico Palacios-Martinez - Mover of the Month

I just updated the database with the games in February and as always I have a look at the players that changed their Goalimpact most in that period. The best performance in this respect had Federico Palacios-Martinez from the U19 of VfL Wolfsburg.

Federico Palacios-Martinez was already previously seen as an above-average talent. The forward player also played in Germany's national team U15, U16 and U17, but didn't make it into the U19 yet. Given the 773 minutes that were analyzed until end of January, he had a GoalImpact of 110.4. A very good score for his age. In February, he added another three full games playing time and they were quite successful.

Werder Bremen U19Wolfsburg U190:5
Wolfsburg U19Chemnitz U197:0
Wolfsburg U19Energie Cottbus U196:0

Having scored 18 goals in just three games and conceding nil is quite outstanding even in a U19 league. Five of the goals were scored by Federico Palacios-Martinez himself. Chemnitz and Energie Cottbus on the low end of the league table, so certainly not hopeless. But Werder Bremen actually is the direct opponent in the fight for the U19 Nothern Bundesliga. Winning 5:0 on foreign ground is a very big win.

This performance raised his Goalimpact to an outstanding 124.1. A talent to keep in mind for the future. And a promising candidate for the German U19 national team.

Wintertransfers 2012/2013 (VI)

Update: Der folgende Artikel beruht auf einer alten Version des Algorithmus. Ivan Perisic hat nach der neuen Version 118,0 und Luis Advincula 95,9.

Die TSG 1899 Hoffenheim holt den Peruanischen Nationalspieler Luis Advíncula als Verstärkung für die Defensive. Der rechte Verteidiger hat allerdings nur einen GoalImpact von 84,7. Ob das reicht, um gleich einzuschlagen? Eher nicht.

Der Hammer Transfer in diesem Winter ist der Wechsel von Ivan Perisic von Borussia Dortmund vom VfL Wolfsburg. Der linke Mittelfeldspieler ist im Kader der kroatischen Nationalmannschaft. Der bringt Top-Leistungen und hat auch einen entsprechenden GoalImpact von 163. Da sind 7,5Mio Euro Transfersumme nicht allzu hoch für ihn.