How well was the WC2010 predicted?

My recent article on the ranking of national teams raised some discussions on how good this is given that the best eleven players don't make necessarily the best XI on the field. The team's tactics must fit to the players and they need to act like a team to be on top.

A way to find out how well the Goalimpact ranks national teams is to look on the ranking for past tournaments and compare it to the outcome. Here are the results of WC2010 in South Africa. In each round I write which teams lost against which teams. The number in brackets are the pre-tournament ranks of the teams according to Goalimpact. To support finding the interesting spots, I highlight all surprises defined as loosing against a team more than three ranks below oneself.

Netherlands (1) against Spain (2)

Semi Finals
- Uruguay (15) against Netherlands (1)
- Germany (8) against Spain (2)

Quater Finals
- Brazil (6) against Netherlands (1)
- Ghana (26) against Uruguay (15)
- Argentina (7) against Germany (8)
- Paraguay (22) against Spain (2)

Last 16
- South Korea (19) against Uruguay (15)
- USA (20) against Ghana (26)
- England (5) against Germany (8)
- Mexico (10) against Argentina (7)
- Slowakia (21) against Netherlands (1)
- Chile (23) against Brazil (6)
- Japan (18) against Paraguay (22)
- Portugal (4) against Spain (2)

Group A
South Africa (27) and France (3)   against     Mexico (10) and Uruguay (15)

Group B
Greece (12) and Nigeria (24)     against         South Korea (19) and Argentina (7)

Group C
Algeria (32) and Slovenia (31)     against         England (5) and USA (20)

Group D
Serbia (11) and Australia (25)     against         Germany (8) and Ghana (26)

Group E
Denmark (14) and Cameron (13)  against     Netherlands (1) and Japan (18)

Group F
Italy (16) and New Zealand (30)   against        Paraguay (22) and Slovakia (21)

Group G
Ivory Coast (9) and North Korea (28)  against  Brazil (6) and Portugal (4)

Group H
Honduras (29) and Switzerland (17)    against   Chile (23) and Spain (2)

If you believe the Goalimpact to be the correct ranking, the only really big surprise was the early end of the tournament for France in Group A. And given the atmosphere and revolts in the team, this probably is a goof example of eleven good players not making a good team.

Ghana overachieved twice, especially in defeatin Serbia in Group D, but it also had kind of a home advantage. The bad performance of Italy was not expected by many, but Italy had a bad Goalimpact to start with. While it is still listed as a surprise, Italy was nut that much better rated as Paraguay and Slovakia.