Germany National Team at Russia 2018

Source Wikipedia. Creative Commons.
About a year ago, we predicted the German national team that is going to play in Russia 2018 - provided they qualify that is. Since April we have a new, better algorithm and it is worth redoing this exercise. The new algorithm also uses a dedicated aging curve for goalkeepers, so the prediction there becomes it bit more meaningful. Additionally, Philip Lahm retired from the national team and hence will not be considered here.


Manuel Neuer ist expected to stay the uncontested number one between the German posts. But as runners up we'd pick some new faces. Ter Stegen isn't unknown and despite some critics on his performances in Barcelona the second best Germa keeper by quite some margin. He is still young and hence we expect him to be improved by then. The third choice, Oliver Baumann, isn't on many short lists for national teams. There you'd find probably Bernd Leno or Timo Horn and rightly so. We have them as close number four and five, so this is very possible to be one of those. Ron-Robert Zieler would not be called to the national team if it would be decided by Goalimpact alone.

Player PeakGI Current Team Age@2018 GI@2018
Manuel Neuer 199.7 Bayern München 32.3 195.3
Marc-André ter Stegen 175.8 FC Barcelona 26.2 167.2
Oliver Baumann 157.7 1899 Hoffenheim 28.1 153.4


Only three defenders of the 2014 World Champions (Hummels, Boateng, Höwedes) are expected to play 2018, too. However, probably Badstuber would have been part of the 2014 team if it wasn't for his injury. New old pick is Marcel Schmelzer who played in the wider circle of the team many games already. Jantschke isn't close to the NT, but also seems generally very underrated in Germany. Completely unknown to many must be Salzburg's Schmitz. He is still young and will only be 23 by 2018. Oczipka would be only an addition to the team as backup. His Goalimpact is somewhat lower.

Player PeakGI Current Team Age@2018 GI@2018
Mats Hummels 184.0 Borussia Dortmund 29.5 178.6
Tony Jantschke 174.1 Bor. Mönchengladbach 28.3 169.7
Jérôme Boateng 173.1 Bayern München 29.8 167.5
Benno Schmitz 166.1 RB Salzburg 23.6 161.7
Benedikt Höwedes 164.8 FC Schalke 04 30.3 157.4
Marcel Schmelzer 163.7 Borussia Dortmund 30.4 155.9
Holger Badstuber 152.7 Bayern München 29.3 147.5
Bastian Oczipka 139.0 Eintracht Frankfurt 29.5 133.6

From the current national players, Ginter is close to be selected and therefore is more a likely candidate than Oczipka. Emre Can has also some perspective. Durm, Hector, Mustafi and Rüdiger are less supported by the algorithm to travel to Russia in 2018.


There are many strong midfielders in Germany. Some of them are already world champions, but many new talented players are yet to come. Julian Brandt and May Meyer will be both only 22 by 2018, but are expected to excel on the highest level already. Many names on this list will be uncontroversial. Lewis Holtby may cause some raised eye brows though as he is not usually included in list of ridiculously talented German midfielders. A fun fact to notice here: There aren't any Bayern Munich players in here. But probably Bayern will buy one or the other until then.

Player PeakGI Current Team Age@2018 GI@2018
Mesut Özil 204.8 Arsenal FC 29.8 199.3
Toni Kroos 181.8 Real Madrid 28.5 177.2
Bastian Schweinsteiger 190.1 Manchester United 33.9 167.4
Julian Brandt 173.9 Bayer Leverkusen 22.2 165.4
Gonzalo Castro 167.6 Borussia Dortmund 31.1 156.4
İlkay Gündoğan 155.6 Borussia Dortmund 27.7 152.1
Lewis Holtby 155.0 Hamburger SV 27.8 151.3
Sami Khedira 161.1 Juventus 31.3 149.0
Patrick Herrmann 148.8 Bor. Mönchengladbach 27.4 145.9
Max Meyer 152.3 FC Schalke 04 22.8 145.5
Maximilian Arnold 147.3 VfL Wolfsburg 24.1 144.3

The midfield is very densely populated. Löw has so much talent to chose from and therefore some very good candidates need to be dropped. Lukas Podolski will be aged too much by then. Karim Bellarabi and Christoph Kramer are rated above average, but not high enough to have a spot.


We expect Müller, Götze, Draxler and Schürrle to be playing four years later their next World Cup along with some new names. Max Kruse had already some first games in the national team and seems a logical addition. Marcel Risse is maybe less obvious.

Player PeakGI Current Team Age@2018 GI@2018
Thomas Müller 212.1 Bayern München 28.8 207.3
Mario Götze 205.9 Bayern München 26.1 205.7
André Schürrle 169.4 VfL Wolfsburg 27.7 166.0
Max Kruse 153.6 VfL Wolfsburg 30.3 146.6
Marcel Risse 149.7 1. FC Köln 28.5 145.2
Julian Draxler 144.6 VfL Wolfsburg 24.8 142.7

Löw never selects many striker so probably some of the names above will either not travel to Russia or play in the midfield. Just out of the selection are Marco Reus and Leroy Sané. Mario Gomez is rated, but will have aged significantly by then. We don't expect him too excel at as high age as Klose did.


To name the players that will play in a tournament in four years time is a terribly tough job. Still we gave a shot and selected 28 players that from today's perspective have some chances. We are curious to hear your thoughts on this. We will have a look at this list maybe in one year from now again to see how the players developed.

Predicting Future National Teams

Our prediction on the German national team that will play in Russia 2018 four years from now, caused some discussions. Some were finding the selections great, some were missing some players that are currently sure bets to be included such as Marco Reus.

Predicting a team in four years time is a terribly hard thing to do. Even predicting the development of a single player isn't easy at all. Predicting the development of all players of a country and selecting the best XI in four years from now is a job only fouls can take on. In order to get some feeling on the general quality of our forecast, Simon Gleave suggested to roll back in time and predict the German national team for the 2014 World Cup back in 2010.

The 2010 Team

We think that is a brilliant idea. But before we do that, let's get our mindset right back to those times by looking at the 2010 World Cup team. The first XI back is marked green in the following table

Player Minutes Games Starting XI
Arne Friedrich 630' 7 7
Sami Khedira 609' 7 7
Per Mertesacker 630' 7 7
Mesut Özil 587' 7 7
Bastian Schweinsteiger 621' 7 7
Philipp Lahm 540' 6 6
Thomas Müller 474' 6 6
Manuel Neuer 540' 6 6
Lukas Podolski 531' 6 6
Jérôme Boateng 376' 5 5
Miroslav Klose 357' 5 5
Cacau 205' 4 2
Mario Gómez 56' 4 -
Marcell Jansen 154' 4 1
Toni Kroos 59' 4 -
Piotr Trochowski 108' 4 1
Holger Badstuber 167' 2 2
Stefan Kießling 24' 2 -
Marko Marin 29' 2 -
Dennis Aogo 90' 1 1
Hans Jörg Butt 90' 1 1
Serdar Taşçı - 1 -
Tim Wiese - - -

Appart from Arne Friedrich and Lukas Podolski those players were still key players in the 2014 team. Podolski was among the 23 players but got only 54mins of playing time.

The other players in that team were either talents (marked orange) or regular substitutes. From those 12 players only Cacau can be considered as too old to be expected to play in 2014 again. Everybody else could, but only Kroos did. That said, it is a fair guess that Gomez and Badstuber would have been part of the 23 at least if it wasn't for his injuries. That leaves a hit rate of at best 3 out of the 11 young additional players if you take the old squad as best guess for the next World Cups team.

The Predicted 2014 Team

Ok here is our prediction of the 2014 team that we would have given to you if asked in Summer 2010 before the World Cup started. We leave out goalkeepers as we do not have an aging curve for them and hence can't really make predictions.

Here are the defenders. We put our picks for three center-backs plus Philip Lahm on the top as estimate for the standard defense as Löw played like this in 2014 (which we obviously wouldn't know back in 2010).

Defender Peak Team Age@2014 Goalimpact@2014
Per Mertesacker 139.0 Werder Bremen 29.8 133.1
Mats Hummels 131.3 Borussia Dortmund 25.5 129.7
Holger Badstuber 131.5 Bayern München 25.3 129.5
Philipp Lahm 147.9 Bayern München 30.7 136.3
Diego Contento 135.2 Bayern München 24.2 129.4
Nico Hammann 128.5 TSV 1860 München II 26.3 127.9
Benedikt Höwedes 128.1 FC Schalke 04 26.3 127.3
Jérôme Boateng 127.5 Hamburger SV 25.8 126.9
Daniel Schwaab 140.4 Bayer Leverkusen 25.8 139.9

For the defenders, we have a lot of hits (marked green) of players that were in the 2010 team and also played in 2014. These hits we would also have, if we just make the naive guess of an unchanged team. As argued above, we maybe could also mark Badstuber green as it is save to assume that a healthy Badstuber would have been in Brazil.

But the team did change a lot and three of the predicted players that were not in the 2010 team were actually predicted correctly (marked orange). Hummels had only 1 appearance in a friendly match against Malta at that time and Höwedes was not considered in the national team before 2011 at all.

While all main 2014 defenders have been correctly predicted by Goalimpact, we have some omissions in among the midfielders.

Midfielder Peak Team Age@2014 Goalimpact@2014
Bastian Schweinsteiger 153.0 Bayern München 29.9 146.9
Thomas Müller 148.5 Bayern München 24.8 144.8
Mesut Özil 136.4 Werder Bremen 25.7 135.3
Mario Götze 145.0 Borussia Dortmund U19 22.1 130.4
Roman Neustädter 131.1 Bor. Mönchengladbach II 26.3 130.3
Patrick Herrmann 135.1 Bor. Mönchengladbach II 23.4 126.3
Jens Hegeler 127.2 FC Augsburg 26.4 126.2
Gonzalo Castro 128.6 Bayer Leverkusen 27.1 126.1

We correctly predicted Schweinsteiger, Müller and Özil to stay in the team, and we even correctly predicted that Mario Götze - back then still playing in a youth league - will be part of the 2014 team. However, we have omitted Khedira and Kroos, two integral players in 2014 World Champions that were already part of the 2010 team. Both were not trailing much. Kroos was expected to have a Goalimpact of 122.6, Khedira of 122.1.

Our addition Neustädter wasn't bad. 2012 he made his first appearance in the national team. At the time we made the prediction, he was still playing in the fourth division. His team mate at that time Herrmann now also plays Bundesliga, but so far had no game for the national team. Hegeler, back then in the 2. Liga, now regularly plays Champions League and hence is also a good call for high talent, but he also didn't make it to the N11.

Joachim Löw didn't really take classical strikers to Brazil. In Germany's tactical system, it is difficult to have a clear line between striker and offensive midfielder anyway. The only striker that earns that label in the team was all time top-scorer Miroslav Klose. Due to aging, we didn't expect him to be still on the team. We added Schürrle to this category too, because he acts very offensive minded. We could also move Müller down here, but it wouldn't really change matters.

Player Peak Team Age@2014 Goalimpact@2014
Deniz Naki 134.7 FC St. Pauli 25.0 131.6
Julian Schieber 129.6 VfB Stuttgart 25.4 127.7
Daniel Ginczek 134.9 Borussia Dortmund II 23.3 125.4
Lewis Holtby 131.4 VfL Bochum 23.8 124.1
André Schürrle 130.9 1. FSV Mainz 05 23.7 123.2


From the eleven field players that played in 6 or more games for the German national team at the World cup, we correctly predicted ten. This includes the correct prediction of Höwedes, Hummels, Schürrle and Götze that were not part of the 2010 team. We missed out one player: Kroos. Just assuming the 2010 squad, would get seven players right.

Predicting future teams is subject to a very high degree of uncertainty. Not only for algorithms, but also for the experts out in the field. Or would you have expected, that the young German Messi that played in South Africa 2010 would not be part of the 2014 team?

Russia 2018: German National Team

Source Wikipedia. Creative Commons.
The World Cup in Brazil is over. While the celebrations are still going on, it is time for Germany to start the next mission; defending the title. Some of the cup winning team from 2014 are well past their peak and are unlikely still to play in the NT 2018. We publish a list of players we think will take the places.


We do not have an aging curve yet for goal keepers, so the list of best German goalkeepers in 2018 equals the list of best German goalkeepers today. Hence no surprises, one might think. But we think that maybe not many have Ferdinand Oswald on their list of top keepers.

Player Current Team Age@2018 GI@2018 PeakGI
Manuel Neuer Bayern München 32.3 169.6 169.6
Roman Weidenfeller Borussia Dortmund 37.9 128.7 128.7
Ferdinand Oswald FC Schalke 04 II 27.8 125.0 125.0


Only three defenders of the 2014 World Champions are expected to play 2018, too. But Lahm, Hummels and Boateng are not just any three, they were also the backbone of the team's strong defensive performance. Benedikt Höwedes is not on the list, but he wasn't on GIs 2014 list either.

Player Team Age@2018 GI@2018 PeakGI
Philipp Lahm Bayern München 34.7 156.4 195.85
Mats Hummels Borussia Dortmund 29.5 150.8 156.57
Jérôme Boateng Bayern München 29.8 144.0 149.97
Benno Schmitz Red Bull Salzburg 23.6 136.0 144.06
Marcel Schmelzer Borussia Dortmund 30.4 135.6 145.23
Vladimir Rankovic Hannover 96 25.0 134.3 137.45
Moritz Sprenger VfL Wolfsburg U19 23.3 133.2 142.38
Robin Knoche VfL Wolfsburg 26.1 133.1 133.33


Özil, Schweinsteiger, Kroos and Draxler sound familiar. The other names not so much. Strong midfielders are leaving the German football education center. Some already play Bundesliga, some are expected to do so soon. Update: Matthias Ottl seems to be an outlier. We don't expect him to really play in Russia, but kept him in the list for transparency reasons.

Player Team Age@2018 GI@2018 PeakGI
Mesut Özil Arsenal FC 29.7 159.1 164.99
Bastian Schweinsteiger Bayern München 33.9 156.5 188.78
Julian Brandt Bayer Leverkusen 22.2 142.2 156.48
Matthias Öttl Austria Salzburg 26.4 141.1 142.02
Toni Kroos Bayern München 28.5 139.5 144.49
Julian Draxler FC Schalke 04 24.8 137.7 141.63
Max Meyer FC Schalke 04 22.8 137.0 148.73
Federico Palacios-Martinez RB Leipzig 23.3 135.4 144.96
Marvin Friedrich FC Schalke 04 U19 22.6 134.1 146.57
Maximilian Arnold VfL Wolfsburg 24.1 133.8 139.82
Morris Schröter 1. FC Magdeburg 22.8 133.6 144.94


We expect Müller, Götze and Schürrle to be playing four years later their next World Cup along with some new names. Lasogga was already 2014 on Löw's scouting list, but he didn't make the cut.

Player Team Age@2018 GI@2018 PeakGI
Thomas Müller Bayern München 28.8 171.8 177.05
Mario Götze Bayern München 26.1 161.5 161.71
Kevin Scheidhauer VfL Wolfsburg II 26.4 139.5 140.45
Patrick Weihrauch Bayern München II 24.3 129.0 134.23
Pierre-Michel Lasogga Hamburger SV 26.6 128.1 129.48
André Schürrle Chelsea FC 27.7 128.0 131.88


To name the players that will play in a tournament in four years time is a terribly tough job. Still we gave a shot and selected 28 players that from today's perspective have some chances. We are curious to hear your thoughts on this. We will have a look at this list every now and then to see how the players developed.

Germany vs Argentina 1:0 n.V.


PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Manuel Neuer169.6169.628.3Bayern München40738098
Benedikt Höwedes127.9128.826.3FC Schalke 0428224031
Mats Hummels155.1156.625.5Borussia Dortmund30026297
Philipp Lahm184.4195.930.7Bayern München58152085
Jérôme Boateng149.4150.025.8Bayern München34027525
Bastian Schweinsteiger182.9188.829.9Bayern München57043814
Mesut Özil164.0165.025.7Arsenal FC40430250
Thomas Müller173.1177.124.8Bayern München35427986
Toni Kroos139.6144.524.5Bayern München30221625
Christoph Kramer109.8119.123.3Bor. Mönchengladbach18114956
Miroslav Klose115.0166.236.1Lazio Roma60545147
Per Mertesacker157.5163.429.8Arsenal FC47944238
André Schürrle123.8131.923.7Chelsea FC25818809
Mario Götze146.7161.722.1Bayern München20314011
Ron-Robert Zieler105.4105.425.4Hannover 9617316172
Roman Weidenfeller128.7128.733.9Borussia Dortmund41438278
Kevin Großkreutz135.6135.725.9Borussia Dortmund31324488
Erik Durm103.8118.622.2Borussia Dortmund1209308
Matthias Ginter103.6131.120.4SC Freiburg13011781
Lukas Podolski110.4116.129.1Arsenal FC42431662
Julian Draxler116.7141.620.8FC Schalke 0417011338


PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Sergio Romero117.1117.127.3AS Monaco22820776
Ezequiel Garay132.1136.727.8SL Benfica26623903
Martín Demichelis118.7149.233.5Manchester City44737298
Marcos Rojo115.3120.924.3Sporting CP13611128
Pablo Zabaleta134.1139.829.4Manchester City41935093
Lucas Biglia131.3136.728.4Lazio Roma38632697
Enzo Pérez119.8125.228.3SL Benfica29722299
Javier Mascherano164.9171.330.1FC Barcelona46439569
Gonzalo Higuaí­n134.6136.126.6SSC Napoli36624134
Lionel Messi182.0184.727.0FC Barcelona47438762
Ezequiel Lavezzi113.5119.129.2Paris Saint-Germain38629871
Fernando Gago110.3115.728.3Boca Juniors31224635
Rodrigo Palacio108.8134.132.4Inter41332023
Kun Agüero143.8144.026.1Manchester City44533062
Agustín Orión115.9115.932.9Boca Juniors31128680
Mariano Andújar96.996.930.9Calcio Catania33130675
Hugo Campagnaro89.7122.634.0Inter23519860
Federico Fernández112.5114.625.3SSC Napoli17113552
José Basanta102.7110.730.3CF Monterrey28124931
Ángel Di María147.6148.626.4Real Madrid37924985
Maxi Rodriguez97.6128.033.5Newell's Old Boys44534249
Augusto Fernández103.0108.428.3Celta Vigo26819605
Ricardo Àlvarez101.4102.026.3Inter1468268

Odds based on starting XI: Deutschland: 58.8% (Home), draw: 25.6%, Argentinien: 15.6%

Odds based on starting XI: Deutschland: 28.6%, draw: 30.4%, Argentinien: 41.0% (HOME)

Odds based on starting XI: Deutschland: 43.1%, draw: 30.1%, Argentinien: 26.8% (Neutral Ground)

Brazil vs Netherlands: Goalimpact of Lineups


PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Júlio César116.7116.734.8Toronto FC38535600
Thiago Silva129.3135.129.8Paris Saint-Germain27825090
David Luiz132.0135.127.2Chelsea FC26623452
Maxwell141.2168.632.8Paris Saint-Germain42034144
Maicon120.7148.432.9AS Roma41236520
Paulinho113.4113.625.9Tottenham Hotspur17313801
Oscar124.8136.522.8Chelsea FC20414181
Ramires130.2133.527.3Chelsea FC34327614
Luiz Gustavo141.7144.226.9VfL Wolfsburg25019840
Willian141.0141.425.9Chelsea FC27920448
113.4116.827.3Atletico Mineiro25217578
Jefferson93.993.931.5Botafogo RJ22720944
Victor115.1115.131.4Atletico Mineiro24422712
Dani Alves177.3193.231.2FC Barcelona55147330
Marcelo150.6151.026.2Real Madrid29224355
Dante136.1148.130.7Bayern München31227941
Henrique104.9109.427.8SSC Napoli17615694
Fernandinho145.1150.829.2Manchester City26522041
Bernard101.6118.521.8Shakhtar Donetsk1027331
Hulk131.0136.227.9Zenit St. Petersburg21817909
Fred110.1122.430.8Fluminense RJ25118566


PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Jasper Cillessen114.4114.425.2AFC Ajax897960
Ron Vlaar116.5122.229.3Aston Villa24021337
Stefan de Vrij120.1133.722.4Feyenoord16313843
Bruno Martins112.9126.522.4Feyenoord13511543
Daley Blind135.1140.524.3AFC Ajax17314378
Jonathan de Guzmán108.2110.326.8Swansea City28923053
Jordy Clasie117.7128.623.0Feyenoord15913185
Georginio Wijnaldum128.8136.923.7PSV Eindhoven24619625
Robin van Persie135.7149.430.9Manchester United48233896
Arjen Robben157.8167.430.4Bayern München49636543
Dirk Kuyt128.4160.933.9Fenerbahce71256475
Michel Vorm103.3103.330.7Swansea City26023975
Tim Krul97.097.026.3Newcastle United17716391
Daryl Janmaat123.3126.824.9Feyenoord18715691
Paul Verhaegh81.694.730.8FC Augsburg29726825
Joël Veltman115.2128.622.5AFC Ajax504002
Terence Kongolo98.2126.320.3Feyenoord433159
Jeremain Lens139.8141.426.6Dinamo Kiev28819897
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar136.3149.930.9FC Schalke 0441833335
Memphis Depay102.4130.520.4PSV Eindhoven996044

Odds based on starting XI: Brazil: 51.1%, draw: 28.2%, Netherlands: 20.7%

In the original lineup Wesley Sneijder was ment to plaay instead of de Guzman. But he had to drop out on a muscle injury. With him, the odds would have been Brazil: 49.5%, draw: 28.7%, Netherlands: 21.8%.

Netherlands vs Argentina: Goalimpact of Lineups

The odds based on the players alone see Argentina as favorite. However, our feeling is that the tactical concept of the Netherlands might more than outweigh the better Argentinian players.


PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Jasper Cillessen112.5112.525.1AFC Ajax857588
Ron Vlaar114.6120.429.3Aston Villa23620965
Stefan de Vrij118.3132.322.3Feyenoord15913487
Bruno Martins111.3125.322.3Feyenoord13211321
Daley Blind133.0139.024.3AFC Ajax16914006
Nigel de Jong136.6142.529.5AC Milan45436044
Wesley Sneijder142.8149.030.0Galatasaray45035013
Georginio Wijnaldum127.0135.723.6PSV Eindhoven24219393
Robin van Persie135.4148.530.8Manchester United47933654
Arjen Robben156.0165.230.3Bayern München49236171
Dirk Kuyt129.5161.033.8Fenerbahce71056293
Michel Vorm103.2103.230.6Swansea City26023975
Tim Krul97.197.126.2Newcastle United17716391
Daryl Janmaat121.4125.324.8Feyenoord18415412
Paul Verhaegh82.394.730.8FC Augsburg29626769
Joël Veltman114.4128.122.4AFC Ajax493986
Terence Kongolo97.2126.020.3Feyenoord423155
Jonathan de Guzmán107.8109.626.8Swansea City28722913
Jordy Clasie117.3128.722.9Feyenoord15913185
Jeremain Lens139.8141.126.5Dinamo Kiev28519808
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar136.3149.230.8FC Schalke 0441733318
Memphis Depay100.4129.220.3PSV Eindhoven965935


PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Sergio Romero116.9116.927.3AS Monaco22520497
Ezequiel Garay132.0136.127.7SL Benfica26323624
Martín Demichelis119.2148.833.4Manchester City44737298
Marcos Rojo114.7120.924.2Sporting CP13310849
Pablo Zabaleta133.7139.629.3Manchester City41634814
Lucas Biglia131.2136.428.3Lazio Roma38332685
Enzo Pérez119.9125.028.3SL Benfica29722299
Javier Mascherano164.4170.630.0FC Barcelona46139290
Gonzalo Higuaí­n134.8136.026.5SSC Napoli36323921
Lionel Messi181.6184.026.9FC Barcelona47138513
Ezequiel Lavezzi113.0118.729.1Paris Saint-Germain38429799
Agustín Orión115.9115.932.8Boca Juniors31128680
Mariano Andújar96.996.930.8Calcio Catania33130675
Hugo Campagnaro90.1121.933.9Inter23419814
Federico Fernández112.0114.525.3SSC Napoli16813273
José Basanta103.1110.630.2CF Monterrey28124931
Fernando Gago110.6115.728.2Boca Juniors30924402
Maxi Rodriguez97.9127.333.4Newell's Old Boys44434203
Augusto Fernández103.0108.128.2Celta Vigo26819605
Ricardo Àlvarez101.6101.926.2Inter1458238
Rodrigo Palacio109.4133.832.3Inter41232006
Kun Agüero143.9143.926.0Manchester City44232861

Odds based on starting XI: Netherlands: 32.8%, draw: 30.8%, Argentina: 36.3% (Neutral Ground)