Samstag, 30. August 2014

FC Schalke 04 - Bayern München: Goalimpact of Lineups

Odds based on starting XI: FC Schalke 04: 29.9% (Home), draw: 30.6%, Bayern München: 39.5%

FC Schalke 04

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Sidney Sam122.6124.026.5Deutschland24716833
Felipe Santana109.1115.128.417612758
Kaan Ayhan116.2143.119.8Türkei [U21]907549
Benedikt Höwedes126.7127.926.4Deutschland28524341
Ralf Fährmann101.2117.825.811510642
Max Meyer107.8144.218.8Deutschland [U19]906149
Jan Kirchhoff115.8120.623.8Deutschland [U21]14711049
Marco Höger113.4115.724.914711509
Julian Draxler119.8138.320.8Deutschland17111355
Maxim Choupo-Moting98.499.725.3Kamerun19211302
Joel Matip113.3121.323.0Kamerun22018046
Average113.1124.324.0
Bench
Tranquillo Barnetta110.4117.129.2Schweiz34624387
Christian Clemens98.7106.723.0Deutschland [U21]16611664
Chinedu Obasi109.0114.828.2Nigeria16110922
Christian Wetklo98.398.634.618316799
Roman Neustädter129.9131.226.426121451
Dennis Aogo95.199.527.6Deutschland29823568
Christian Fuchs105.9111.928.3Österreich37931067
Average106.8111.428.2


Bayern München

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Xherdan Shaqiri130.1138.822.8Schweiz21213884
Xabi Alonso170.3198.032.7Spanien63051740
Holger Badstuber128.3130.924.8Deutschland23921340
Mario Götze147.7158.722.2Deutschland20514057
Philipp Lahm195.9209.530.8Deutschland58552427
Thomas Müller173.5175.924.9Deutschland35728296
Sebastian Rode106.9111.823.8Deutschland [U21]14812119
David Alaba131.6142.922.1Österreich24419998
Robert Lewandowski144.0144.125.9Polen28222524
Jérôme Boateng145.9146.125.9Deutschland34327835
Manuel Neuer191.4197.128.3Deutschland41038408
Average151.4159.425.8
Bench
Gianluca Gaudino67.0114.717.8271931
Dante133.6147.830.8Brasilien31328034
Pepe Reina171.2173.331.9Spanien62658177
Juan Bernat105.1120.321.4Spanien [U21]855752
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg105.1140.119.0Dänemark [U21]705158
Julian Green101.9135.119.2USA564300
Claudio Pizarro103.9155.435.8Peru61044418
Average112.5141.025.1



Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim: Goalimpact of Lineups

Hoffenheim is the better team, but his is overcompensated by the home field advantage. Goalimpact is more optimistic then the betting markets when it comes to Werder's chances to keep a point or three at home. The odds do not reflect Hoffenheims better bench though and might be a bit optimistic.

Werder Bremen: 42.7%
Draw: 30.2%
1899 Hoffenheim: 27.1%

Werder Bremen

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Izet Hajrovic97.0104.923.0Bosnien-Herzegowina1167117
Assani Lukimya99.6105.828.524119838
Sebastian Prödl94.797.827.1Österreich22318655
Santiago García93.493.626.11028780
Raphael Wolf81.895.926.216515275
Eljero Elia90.094.227.5Niederlande29819341
Davie Selke92.9121.919.5Deutschland [U19]715057
Clemens Fritz89.6122.133.7Deutschland41334372
Gálvez99.6101.425.2746359
Franco Di Santo85.987.425.3Argentinien1769534
Zlatko Junuzovi?93.095.426.8Österreich34529159
Average92.5101.926.3
Bench
Fin Bartels91.395.527.526120034
Felix Kroos101.9108.423.416811315
Cédric Makiadi87.398.530.4DR Kongo30823742
Marnon Busch94.3122.019.7665694
Nils Petersen101.9102.725.7Deutschland [U19]22314514
Raif Husic68.4170.518.5343162
Luca Caldirola93.9100.023.5Italien [U21]12010735
Average91.3113.924.1


1899 Hoffenheim

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Niklas Süle88.9124.818.9Deutschland [U17]877242
Ádám Szalai112.4114.326.7Ungarn17511587
Ermin Bi?ak?i?110.7113.824.5Bosnien-Herzegowina16114522
Kevin Volland104.7116.322.0Deutschland [U21]17714470
Tarik Elyounoussi102.8104.126.4Norwegen19814356
Sebastian Rudy108.1111.524.4Deutschland [U21]21116340
Roberto Firmino103.0111.622.81179199
Tobias Strobl108.3112.124.318214700
Eugen Polanski99.4105.528.4Polen23717984
Andreas Beck112.2116.227.4Deutschland28024563
Oliver Baumann109.1139.424.2Deutschland [U21]21720197
Average105.4115.424.5
Bench
Sven Schipplock105.7106.325.819811052
Sejad Salihovi?113.4120.729.8Bosnien-Herzegowina33126151
David Abraham119.4125.228.125722493
Jens Grahl127.4143.925.813012074
Kai Herdling116.2124.530.126118887
Jannik Vestergaard111.4123.122.0Dänemark [U21]1159739
Anthony Modeste81.882.626.3Frankreich [U21]21613882
Average110.8118.026.8



Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07: Goalimpact of Lineups

Given the starting players and the home field advantage, HSVis the clear favorite. However, Paderborn seems to have better players on the bench then on the field. Maybe they opted for experience and hence older players. This might be a bad choice.

Hamburger SV: 55.7%
Draw: 26.7%
SC Paderborn 07: 17.6%

The betting odds are similar.

Hamburger SV

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Tolgay Arslan111.9116.324.0Türkei [U21]16712118
Valon Behrami108.3115.229.3Schweiz28122242
René Adler107.8112.029.6Deutschland28126257
Dennis Diekmeier99.9102.524.8Deutschland [U21]19316991
Milan Badelj127.2128.425.4Kroatien24520102
Johan Djourou115.1119.427.5Schweiz22218168
Pierre-Michel Lasogga118.5127.822.7Deutschland [U21]16612047
Ivo Ilicevic86.391.227.8Kroatien24115678
Rafael van der Vaart135.4155.331.5Niederlande52839980
Marcell Jansen89.395.728.8Deutschland30925669
Heiko Westermann94.5110.231.0Deutschland43939980
Average108.6115.827.5
Bench
Petr Jirácek101.7107.728.4Tschechien18312423
Zoltán Stieber96.897.225.8Ungarn14511250
Artjoms Rudnevs98.199.726.6Lettland14710753
Matthias Ostrzolek111.7115.524.2Deutschland [U21]15512424
Cleber101.0106.523.7302708
Jonathan Tah81.9122.718.5574945
Jaroslav Drobný89.189.334.8Tschechien Olymp.21319718
Average97.2105.526.0


SC Paderborn 07

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Elias Kachunga113.2123.822.314610847
Lukas Kruse83.285.831.117816016
Patrick Ziegler99.0102.224.513711147
Jens Wemmer97.9104.328.819316491
Christian Strohdiek98.5100.026.512510553
Marvin Bakalorz103.7106.124.915611734
Mario Vrancic129.5131.225.2Deutschland [U20]18713529
Daniel Brückner81.0112.633.529322624
Süleyman Koç77.679.425.215511617
Uwe Hünemeier103.7109.928.625422430
Moritz Stoppelkamp87.592.127.722514489
Average97.7104.327.1
Bench
Idir Ouali97.598.126.218913583
Daniel Lück106.4144.623.3353108
Marvin Ducksch101.9123.220.4Deutschland [U17]986659
Stefan Kutschke115.6116.225.81497454
Lukas Rupp103.9109.723.61519426
Marc Vucinovic110.9111.225.8886797
Michael Heinloth115.7125.622.513811884
Average107.4118.423.9



Montag, 25. August 2014

Manchester City vs Liverpool FC: Goalimpact of Lineups

Manchester City has the stronger starting XI and the home field advantage on their side. This makes Liverpool have only outsider chances on a win, though a draw is not very unlikely. All in all, Goalimpact is more optimistic on Cities chances than the betting markets

ResultGoalimpact based on starting XIBetfair
Manchester City59.0%50.5%
Draw25.5%25.8%
Liverpool FC15.5%23.7%

Given that City has also the better bench, the odds are probably not overly optimistic for City fans. And b.t.w. it is a sin that Lazar Markovic is on the bench. There must be a place for him in Liverpool's team somewhere.

Manchester City

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Joe Hart142.9149.727.3England33631329
Yaya Touré128.6146.431.3Elfenbeinküste44337337
Samir Nasri126.8129.927.1Frankreich43431327
Stevan Jovetic104.1106.824.8Montenegro18113121
Fernando136.8139.727.0Brasilien [U20]23019743
Edin Džeko133.1139.128.4Bosnien-Herzegowina34826033
Martín Demichelis113.6146.033.6Argentinien45037639
Gaël Clichy154.1160.729.0Frankreich38132239
Pablo Zabaleta135.3142.429.5Argentinien42335558
David Silva135.3141.428.6Spanien42032612
Vincent Kompany143.6149.628.3Belgien42637224
Average132.2141.128.6
Bench
Kun Agüero145.7146.126.2Argentinien44733182
Jesús Navas134.2140.528.7Spanien43735231
Aleksandar Kolarov107.0113.428.8Serbien26219789
Bacary Sagna131.6151.431.5Frankreich42137582
Fernandinho142.6149.429.3Brasilien26822227
James Milner117.2123.428.6England52037414
Willy Caballero106.2107.632.825623418
Average126.4133.129.4


Liverpool FC

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Daniel Sturridge120.9123.224.9England21412975
Coutinho103.4114.622.2Brasilien [U20]1278374
Jordan Henderson122.1126.024.2England24819327
Dejan Lovren120.8122.725.1Kroatien20718094
Raheem Sterling101.6129.419.7England986589
Martin Škrtel106.1113.229.7Slowakei32528593
Glen Johnson125.7133.129.9England39334758
Alberto Moreno111.6123.022.1Spanien695745
Simon Mignolet107.0119.026.4Belgien22220651
Joe Allen112.7116.124.4Wales22315958
Steven Gerrard136.8172.734.2England73361512
Average115.3126.625.7
Bench
Brad Jones86.187.832.312011119
Emre Can107.2127.620.6Deutschland [U21]1149313
Mamadou Sakho110.3113.524.5Frankreich21017528
Kolo Touré131.8162.933.3Elfenbeinküste50242363
Rickie Lambert106.3132.932.4England24921177
Lazar Markovic119.2140.420.4Serbien [U21]1157616
Manquillo98.0120.320.3Spanien [U20]231758
Average108.4126.526.3



Samstag, 23. August 2014

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen: Goalimpact of Lineups

Dortmund has the slightly better starting XI and due to the home field advantage are expected to win. Betfair favors Dortmund slightly more.

Borussia Dortmund: 51.9%
Draw: 28.0%
Bayer Leverkusen: 20.1%

Borussia Dortmund

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Marco Reus114.5116.225.2Deutschland27121167
Miloš Jojic109.6119.922.3Serbien [U21]734733
Erik Durm104.3115.222.3Deutschland [U21]1209308
Sebastian Kehl104.1142.734.5Deutschland43435004
Mitchell Langerak108.8124.625.9575153
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang109.0110.925.1Gabun23616667
Sokratis Papastathopoulos105.9106.326.2Griechenland24920504
Ciro Immobile105.4108.724.4Italien1419801
Matthias Ginter107.0127.620.5Deutschland [U21]13011781
Lukasz Piszczek130.1136.929.2Polen26621319
Henrikh Mkhitaryan128.6129.625.5Armenien22418865
Average111.6121.725.6
Bench
Average0.00.00.0


Bayer Leverkusen

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Hakan Çalhanoglu97.7118.520.5Türkei13510865
Gonzalo Castro122.3125.527.2Deutschland [U21]36529722
Emir Spahic87.6121.733.9Bosnien-Herzegowina24922434
Bernd Leno106.6153.822.4Deutschland [U21]20419034
Karim Bellarabi104.6108.124.3Deutschland [U21]1248615
Stefan Kießling121.3133.130.5Deutschland40630012
Sebastian Boenisch112.1116.327.5Polen17513347
Tin Jedvaj90.3128.918.7Kroatien [U21]221883
Heung-Min Son96.6108.022.1Südkorea15510400
Simon Rolfes125.1152.132.5Deutschland48840314
Ömer Toprak119.7121.725.0Türkei22319068
Average107.6126.225.9
Bench
Average0.00.00.0



Hertha BSC vs Werder Bremen: Goalimpact of Lineups

Based on the starting XI, Hertha BSC is a 57.0% favorite to win this match. Draw probability is 26.3%, and Werder Bremen might be lucky to get three points with a 16.7% chance. Thus Goalimpact is more optimistic about Berlin's chances than the betting markets are.

Hertha BSC

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Ronny111.3117.228.316610330
Hajime Hosogai95.2101.028.2Japan17814389
Peter Niemeyer90.1103.430.7Deutschland [U21]30822787
Thomas Kraft104.4119.526.022520785
Genki Haraguchi95.1102.223.317112437
Peter Pekarík107.3112.327.8Slowakei19416291
Julian Schieber119.7120.825.5Deutschland [U21]20210938
Sebastian Langkamp94.896.326.6Deutschland [U21]18015831
Johnny Heitinga139.4152.930.8Niederlande44837423
Roy Beerens106.7108.526.6Niederlande Olymp.31023540
Nico Schulz95.7111.421.3Deutschland [U21]1198159
Average105.4113.226.8
Bench
Jens Hegeler109.3110.826.522114245
Sami Allagui96.7102.628.2Tunesien22015214
Rune Jarstein103.8107.729.8Norwegen19918383
Sandro Wagner96.698.526.7Deutschland [U21]22211627
John Anthony Brooks109.2123.821.5USA1068773
Marcel Ndjeng102.6128.132.330723211
Änis Ben-Hatira103.6103.726.0Tunesien19111656
Average103.1110.727.3


Werder Bremen

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Zlatko Junuzovic93.095.426.8Österreich34529159
Cédric Makiadi87.398.530.4DR Kongo30823742
Clemens Fritz89.6122.133.7Deutschland41334372
Assani Lukimya99.6105.828.524119838
Izet Hajrovic97.0104.923.0Bosnien-Herzegowina1167117
Santiago García93.493.626.11028780
Eljero Elia90.094.227.5Niederlande29819341
Franco Di Santo85.987.425.3Argentinien1769534
Luca Caldirola93.9100.023.5Italien [U21]12010735
Felix Kroos101.9108.423.416811315
Raphael Wolf81.895.926.216515275
Average92.1100.626.8
Bench
Davie Selke92.9121.919.5Deutschland [U19]715057
Gálvez99.6101.425.2746359
Nils Petersen101.9102.725.7Deutschland [U19]22314514
Marnon Busch94.3122.019.7665694
Richard Strebinger94.1152.921.5Österreich [U19]837599
Ludovic Obraniak98.2105.529.8Polen36125422
Fin Bartels91.395.527.526120034
Average96.0114.624.1



Freitag, 22. August 2014

Bayern München vs VfL Wolfsburg: Goalimpact of Lineups

The odds based on starting XI show Bayern as clear favorite. But Goalimpact is slightly more skeptical than the betting markets. This is at least partly due to the low ratings of Bernat and Gaudino.

Bayern München: 66.3% (Home)
Draw: 22.3%
VfL Wolfsburg: 11.5%

Bayern München

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Manuel Neuer191.4197.128.3Deutschland41038408
Dante133.6147.830.8Brasilien31328034
Juan Bernat105.1120.321.4Spanien [U21]855752
Philipp Lahm195.9209.530.8Deutschland58552427
David Alaba131.6142.922.1Österreich24419998
Holger Badstuber128.3130.924.8Deutschland23921340
Gianluca Gaudino67.0114.717.8271931
Mario Götze147.7158.722.2Deutschland20514057
Robert Lewandowski144.0144.125.9Polen28222524
Arjen Robben153.4165.330.5Niederlande49936884
Thomas Müller173.5175.924.9Deutschland35728296
Average142.9155.225.4
Bench
Pepe Reina171.2173.331.9Spanien62658177
Xherdan Shaqiri130.1138.822.8Schweiz21213884
Lucas Scholl65.0110.318.1241395
Sebastian Rode106.9111.823.8Deutschland [U21]14812119
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg105.1140.119.0Dänemark [U21]705158
Claudio Pizarro103.9155.435.8Peru61044418
Julian Green101.9135.119.2USA564300
Average112.0137.824.4


VfL Wolfsburg

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Max Grün111.4118.327.311610755
Sebastian Jung123.1127.024.1Deutschland [U21]24321798
Naldo116.0139.431.9Brasilien32929657
Robin Knoche119.6130.522.2Deutschland [U21]15913773
Ricardo Rodríguez105.7117.721.9Schweiz14512533
Vieirinha106.3112.528.5Portugal23216692
Aaron Hunt98.5103.927.9Deutschland [U21]33023326
Kevin De Bruyne107.3114.823.1Belgien18313863
Luiz Gustavo137.6140.527.0Brasilien25219979
Josuha Guilavogui109.4114.123.8Frankreich1309474
Ivica Olic100.4142.934.9Kroatien35323729
Average112.3123.826.6
Bench
Patrick Drewes105.9164.421.5797378
Marcel Schäfer100.1108.930.2Deutschland36130493
Timm Klose107.0107.726.3Schweiz14112040
Daniel Caligiuri111.4112.926.619713197
Junior Malanda98.3122.919.9Belgien [U21]786345
Maximilian Arnold112.7135.420.2Deutschland [U21]1099092
Bas Dost103.3105.125.2Niederlande [U21]18413690
Average105.5122.524.3