Donnerstag, 7. Januar 2016

Young Player Challenge - January 2016 Update

Winter break. Good time to check how did our Young Talent Challenge do since the last update. As always, here is the list of the 23 most talented players that are yet to turn 20 plus our earlier picks even if they are no longer among the 25 most talented. Players listed with a value of 2,000,000 € or below at Transfermarkt.de are anonymized and numbered. The numbers are consistent with earlier posts. When talents become known, we will uncover them.

Player Transfermarkt First Listed Transfermarkt @ first listed Goalimpact PeakGI Player Age
Julian Brandt, Bayer Leverkusen 10.000.000 € Apr 15 5.000.000 € 140 174 20
Anonymous Talent 28 600.000 € Jan 16 600.000 € 85 165 17
Anonymous Talent 20 0 € Jul 15 0 € 85 158 18
Anonymous Talent 29 250.000 € Jan 16 250.000 € 73 156 17
Youri Tielemans, RSC Anderlecht 12.000.000 € Apr 15 12.000.000 € 102 155 19
Anonymous Talent 30 1.750.000 € Jan 16 1.750.000 € 89 155 18
Rubén Neves, FC Porto 6.000.000 € Apr 15 5.000.000 € 103 154 19
Anonymous Talent 31 0 € Jan 16 0 € 81 153 18
Anonymous Talent 19 1.200.000 € Jul 15 500.000 € 96 153 19
Ante Ćorić, Dinamo Zagreb 5.000.000 € Jul 15 2.500.000 € 99 151 19
Anonymous Talent 32 0 € Jan 16 0 € 73 151 17
Anonymous Talent 33 0 € Jan 16 0 € 90 150 18
Breel-Donald Embolo, FC Basel 16.000.000 € Apr 15 8.000.000 € 101 150 19
Anonymous Talent 34 900.000 € Jan 16 900.000 € 90 150 18
Anonymous Talent 9 1.500.000 € Apr 15 750.000 € 117 150 20
Anonymous Talent 24 0 € Sep 15 0 € 76 150 18
Martin Ødegaard, Real Madrid Castilla 4.000.000 € Jan 16 4.000.000 € 66 149 17
Anonymous Talent 4 700.000 € Apr 15 500.000 € 94 149 19
Anonymous Talent 36 0 € Jan 16 0 € 93 148 19
Andrija Živković, Partizan 7.000.000 € Apr 15 3.000.000 € 111 148 20
Anonymous Talent 37 0 € Jan 16 0 € 84 148 18
Anonymous Talent 38 0 € Jan 16 0 € 74 147 18
Anonymous Talent 2 1.500.000 € Apr 15 1.000.000 € 97 147 19
Anonymous Talent 39 0 € Jan 16 0 € 78 147 18
Anonymous Talent 27 1.500.000 € Sep 15 500.000 € 105 146 19
Anonymous Talent 3 300.000 € Apr 15 1.000.000 € 97 145 19
Anonymous Talent 26 1.300.000 € Sep 15 750.000 € 85 143 18
Anonymous Talent 8 1.500.000 € Apr 15 500.000 € 99 141 19
Anonymous Talent 18 50.000 € Jul 15 0 € 104 141 20
Anonymous Talent 12 400.000 € Apr 15 125.000 € 99 141 19
Anonymous Talent 22 2.000.000 € Jul 15 1.000.000 € 93 140 19
Anonymous Talent 5 300.000 € Apr 15 350.000 € 103 139 20
Richairo Živković, Willem II 2.500.000 € Apr 15 4.000.000 € 98 139 19
Anonymous Talent 1 500.000 € Apr 15 300.000 € 91 138 19
Valentino Lazaro 2.000.000 € Jul 15 2.500.000 € 106 138 20
Anonymous Talent 15 1.500.000 € Apr 15 1.000.000 € 89 138 19
Anonymous Talent 23 1.500.000 € Jul 15 750.000 € 99 137 19
Anonymous Talent 17 450.000 € Jul 15 200.000 € 87 137 19
Anonymous Talent 16 0 € Apr 15 0 € 94 136 19
Danilo, Valencia CF 7.000.000 € Sep 15 7.000.000 € 105 136 20
Anonymous Talent 11 75.000 € Apr 15 50.000 € 83 135 19
Teddy Bishop, Ipswich Town 2.500.000 € Apr 15 2.500.000 € 97 135 20
Anonymous Talent 13 250.000 € Apr 15 125.000 € 101 134 20
Anonymous Talent 25 0 € Sep 15 0 € 66 133 18
Anonymous Talent 21 0 € Jul 15 0 € 45 113 18

Julian Brandt still leads, but to remarkable things happend. First, he didn't manage to further improve his peak. In fact, it dropped by three points. Secondly, another player of similar talent appeared on the screen. As his value is listed well below 2,000,000€, he remains anonymous and we take him into our virtual portfolio of January 2016 as "Anonymous Talent 28".

Of the old selected players, most still have a very good peak estimate. Just "Anonymous Talent 21" dropped to 113 and probably will not bring a strong return. Most others developed very well. Here is the overview of our investments.
„Julian-Brandt“ von Fuguito
Lizenziert unter CC-BY-SA 4.0

Cohort Investment Up Down Profit Rate of Return
Apr 15 6.700.000 € 63% 25,0% 2.975.000 € 44,40%
Jul 15 2.450.000 € 83% 0,0% 2.750.000 € 112,24%
Sep 15 1.250.000 € 50% 0,0% 1.550.000 € 124,00%
Jan 16 3.500.000 € 0% 0,0% 0 € 0,00%

The investments done in April 2015 will be hold for one year soon. 63% of them raised in value while only 25% dropped. We made on the overall investment of 6.7M€ a profit of nearly 3M€ or more than 40%. But it is dwarfed by the July investments that lead to nearly the same profit despite of an investment of only 2.4M€. In total a return on investment of 112% in just half a year. So far this portfolio is still to see a player to actually drop in value. Less time, but even more return was the September 2015 portfolio. 50% of the players increased in value in the just four months since the summer transfer window closed. This portfolio also more than doubled the value since then.

This month we again have some drop out because they turned 20.

Player Transfermarkt First Listed Transfermarkt @ first listed Goalimpact PeakGI Player Age Drop Out
Anonymous Talent 6 50.000 € Apr 15 50.000 € 107 130 20 Sep 15
Anonymous Talent 7 750.000 € Apr 15 500.000 € 111 138 20 Jan 16
Anonymous Talent 10 150.000 € Apr 15 200.000 € 107 133 20 Jan 16
Anonymous Talent 14 200.000 € Apr 15 250.000 € 108 134 20 Jan 16

All of the new drop-outs (Talent 7, 10 and 14) are still considered promising talents. We will change the rules and keep them in the portfolio.

Sonntag, 29. November 2015

FIFA World XI by Goalimpact


The FIFA didn't select the players that have the highest Goalimpact, but that isn't also to be expected. The FIFA World XI is a honor that is based on 2015 performance only, while Goalimpact is based on all games of the player's career. But even given that, there are some surprising omissions in the FIFA list: no Özil?!? Anyway, the list isn't too far of Goalimpact either and most players on the list are passing 150, my arbitrary level of world-class.

Other than Özil, notable omission from Goalimpact perspetive are Theo Walcott, Mario Götze and Cesc Fàbregas.


Rank GIPlayerTeamGoalimpactPlayer AgePeakGINationality
1Thomas MüllerBayern München211,726,2212,0Deutschland
4Karim BenzemaReal Madrid198,527,8202,6Frankreich
5Robert LewandowskiBayern München198,327,2201,0Polen
6Lionel MessiFC Barcelona197,628,3202,2Argentinien
9Manuel NeuerBayern München195,229,6200,0Deutschland
10BusquetsFC Barcelona193,927,3196,7Spanien
13MarceloReal Madrid185,927,5189,2Brasilien
14PiquéFC Barcelona185,828,8190,7Spanien
16Cristiano RonaldoReal Madrid182,730,8192,3Portugal
19Mats HummelsBorussia Dortmund181,926,8183,8Deutschland
20Toni KroosReal Madrid180,525,8180,8Deutschland
21Arturo VidalBayern München179,528,4184,2Chile
28Wayne RooneyManchester United176,930,0182,9England
30David AlabaBayern München176,723,3181,5Österreich
34NeymarFC Barcelona175,623,8179,2Brasilien
46Eden HazardChelsea FC173,424,8175,1Belgien
48Arjen RobbenBayern München173,031,8188,0Niederlande
49James RodríguezReal Madrid172,924,3175,3Kolumbien
53Iker CasillasFC Porto170,434,4176,9Spanien
54Alexis SánchezArsenal FC170,026,8171,9Chile
59Kun AgüeroManchester City168,327,4171,4Argentinien
63Luis SuárezFC Barcelona167,428,8172,3Uruguay
69Dani AlvesFC Barcelona165,932,5183,9Brasilien
73Javier MascheranoFC Barcelona164,431,4177,5Argentinien
75IniestaFC Barcelona164,031,5177,5Spanien
93Xabi AlonsoBayern München161,233,9184,3Spanien
97Philipp LahmBayern München160,832,0176,8Deutschland
98Gianluigi BuffonJuventus160,737,8174,4Italien
109Sergio RamosReal Madrid158,929,6164,5Spanien
114Carlos TévezBoca Juniors157,931,8172,8Argentinien
116Luka ModrićReal Madrid157,730,2164,3Kroatien
131De GeaManchester United155,725,0170,7Spanien
133Gareth BaleReal Madrid155,426,3156,1Wales
135David SilvaManchester City155,329,8161,0Spanien
136Ivan RakitićFC Barcelona155,327,7158,8Kroatien
146David LuizParis Saint-Germain154,428,5159,1Brasilien
149Vincent KompanyManchester City154,229,6159,7Belgien
152ThiagoBayern München154,024,6156,1Spanien
155PepeReal Madrid153,832,7172,5Portugal
158Thiago SilvaParis Saint-Germain153,531,1165,1Brasilien
171Giorgio ChielliniJuventus152,331,3164,5Italien
183Zlatan IbrahimovićParis Saint-Germain151,334,1175,3Schweden
208Dani CarvajalReal Madrid150,023,8153,4Spanien
230Jordi AlbaFC Barcelona148,826,6150,2Spanien
288John TerryChelsea FC145,934,9176,2England
294Raphaël VaraneReal Madrid145,522,5152,8Frankreich
342Diego GodínAtletico Madrid143,029,7148,6Uruguay
358Branislav IvanovićChelsea FC142,331,7156,9Serbien
379Yaya TouréManchester City141,632,5159,5Elfenbeinküste
397Marco VerrattiParis Saint-Germain140,423,0146,3Italien
536Paul PogbaJuventus135,322,7142,3Frankreich
613Douglas CostaBayern München132,925,2134,1Brasilien
909Keylor NavasReal Madrid126,328,9131,1Costa Rica
2008Andrea PirloNew York City FC115,136,4157,8Italien

Donnerstag, 19. November 2015

Top-100 All Time

A quick data dump upon request. I leave the commenting to you guys. Just quickly the filter criteria. This includes all non-Goalkeepers in the database with at least 20000 minutes of match time that didn't play a game after 1.1.2014.

Rank Player PeakGI Last
Game
Age Last
Competition
Last
Team
1 Johan Cruyff 216,06 13-Mai-84 68,5 Eredivisie Feyenoord
2 Férenc Puskás 214,36 21-Nov-65 88,6 Primera Division Real Madrid
3 José Santamaría 212,52 19-Dez-65 86,3 Primera Division Real Madrid
4 Luc Nilis 211,2 09-Sep-00 48,4 Premier League Aston Villa
5 Gorostiza 204,83 24-Mrz-46 106,8 Primera Division Valencia CF
6 Ivan Nielsen 200,2 04-Nov-92 59,1 Superliga FC København
7 Shota Arveladze 199,68 18-Mai-08 42,7 Primera Division Levante UD
8 Ronald de Boer 198,29 12-Mai-04 45,5 Championship Rangers FC
9 Frank Rijkaard 195,57 28-Mai-95 53,1 Eredivisie AFC Ajax
10 Henrik Larsson 194,93 28-Okt-09 44,1 Allsvenskan Helsingborgs IF
11 Marco van Basten 193,93 26-Mai-93 51,0 Serie A AC Milan
12 Søren Lerby 190,14 06-Mai-90 57,8 Eredivisie PSV Eindhoven
13 Danny Blind 189,31 16-Mai-99 54,3 Eredivisie AFC Ajax
14 Pep Guardiola 189,24 30-Apr-06 44,8 Primera Division Dorados de Sinaloa
15 Alfredo Di Stéfano 188,68 03-Apr-66 89,3 Primera Division Espanyol Barcelona
16 Zárraga 187,57 25-Mrz-62 85,3 Primera Division Real Madrid
17 Ronaldo 186,7 03-Feb-11 39,1 Serie A Corinthians SP
18 Antônio Carlos 185,85 02-Dez-07 46,5 Serie A Santos FC
19 Hannes Bongartz 185,8 05-Nov-83 64,1 2. Bundesliga 1. FC Kaiserslautern
20 Marquitos 185,11 26-Apr-64 82,6 Segunda B Grupo 4 Real Murcia
21 Marc Overmars 185 01-Mai-09 42,6 Eerste Divisie Go Ahead Eagles
22 Yasuhiko Okudera 184,4 26-Apr-86 63,7 Bundesliga Werder Bremen
23 Jari Litmanen 183,83 29-Okt-11 44,7 Veikkausliiga HJK Helsinki
24 Giovanni Trapattoni 182,72 13-Feb-72 76,7 Serie B AS Varese 1910
25 Herbert Wimmer 182,31 29-Apr-78 71,0 Bundesliga Bor. Mönchengladbach
26 Gary Stevens 182,28 29-Sep-93 52,6 Championship Rangers FC
27 Frank de Boer 181,94 26-Jun-04 45,5 Championship Rangers FC
28 Thomas Schaaf 181,91 13-Mai-95 54,5 Bundesliga Werder Bremen
29 Dennis Bergkamp 181,59 07-Mai-06 46,5 Premier League Arsenal FC
30 Roberto Di Matteo 181,42 28-Sep-00 45,4 Premier League Chelsea FC
31 Wolfgang Kraus 181,42 29-Nov-86 62,2 Bundesliga Eintracht Frankfurt
32 Escudero 181,3 04-Mai-58 87,9 Primera Division Atletico Madrid
33 Frank Neubarth 181,13 18-Mai-96 53,3 Bundesliga Werder Bremen
34 Rafael Lesmes 180,64 30-Apr-61 89,0 Segunda Division Real Valladolid
35 Paul Scholes 180,33 19-Mai-13 41,0 Premier League Manchester United
36 Gento 179,49 21-Mai-71 82,0 Primera Division Real Madrid
37 Joan Segarra 179,19 25-Apr-64 88,0 Primera Division FC Barcelona
38 Andreas Möller 179,15 28-Feb-04 48,2 Bundesliga Eintracht Frankfurt
39 Dieter Hoeneß 179,05 17-Jun-87 62,8 Bundesliga Bayern München
40 Martijn Reuser 178,98 02-Mai-10 40,8 Eerste Divisie NAC Breda
41 Finidi George 178,24 08-Mai-04 44,6 Segunda Division RCD Mallorca
42 Gerald Vanenburg 177,76 18-Dez-99 51,7 2. Bundesliga TSV 1860 München
43 Hans Pflügler 177,44 26-Aug-95 55,6 Regionalliga Bayern Bayern München II
44 Johnny Bosman 177,04 28-Apr-02 50,8 Eredivisie AZ Alkmaar
45 Toninho Cerezo 176,06 21-Apr-94 60,5 Serie A Cruzeiro EC
46 Deco 175,9 01-Aug-13 38,2 Serie A Fluminense RJ
47 Siniša Mihajlović 175,87 14-Apr-06 46,7 Serie A Inter
48 Lothar Matthäus 175,4 20-Jun-00 54,6 Bundesliga Bayern München
49 Wolfgang Weber 175,3 22-Jan-77 71,3 Bundesliga 1. FC Köln
50 César Rodríguez 175,1 10-Apr-60 95,3 Segunda Division Elche CF
51 Ivica Vastić 175,06 21-Mai-09 46,1 Erste Liga LASK Linz
52 Uli Borowka 175,02 09-Dez-95 53,4 Bundesliga Werder Bremen
53 Paul Breitner 174,76 28-Mai-83 64,2 Bundesliga Bayern München
54 Cafu 174,7 18-Mai-08 45,4 Serie A AC Milan
55 Pavel Nedved 174,26 31-Mai-09 43,2 Serie A Juventus
56 Gary Neville 174,06 01-Jan-11 40,7 Premier League Manchester United
57 Claude Makélélé 174,05 29-Mai-11 42,7 Ligue 1 Paris Saint-Germain
58 Jens Nowotny 173,99 08-Aug-06 41,8 1. HNL Dinamo Zagreb
59 Hristo Stoichkov 173,65 26-Okt-03 49,8 Major League Soccer D.C. United
60 Lauren 173,63 25-Apr-10 38,8 Segunda Division Cordoba CF
61 Berti Vogts 173,42 02-Jun-79 68,8 Bundesliga Bor. Mönchengladbach
62 Ole Gunnar Solskjær 173,32 19-Mai-07 42,7 Premier League Manchester United
63 Hugo Sánchez 173,11 19-Jun-94 57,4 Primera Division Rayo Vallecano
64 Jan Mølby 172,96 14-Mrz-95 52,3 Premier League Liverpool FC
65 Giovane Élber 172,36 06-Sep-06 43,3 Serie A Cruzeiro EC
66 Juan Sánchez 172,3 13-Mai-06 43,8 Primera Division Celta Vigo
67 Felix Magath 172,3 29-Jun-86 62,3 Bundesliga Hamburger SV
68 Dragan Holcer 172,2 29-Mai-82 70,8 Bundesliga FC Schalke 04
69 Stefan Beinlich 172,18 08-Mrz-08 43,8 3. Liga Hansa Rostock
70 Sergi Barjuan 172,13 29-Mai-05 43,8 Primera Division Atletico Madrid
71 Michel Platini 172,12 17-Mai-87 60,3 Serie A Juventus
72 Luís Figo 172,04 31-Mai-09 43,0 Serie A Inter
73 Beom-geun Cha 171,72 17-Jun-89 62,4 Bundesliga Bayer Leverkusen
74 Dieter Lindner 171,64 05-Jun-71 76,4 Bundesliga Eintracht Frankfurt
75 Tomás Galásek 171,62 23-Mai-09 42,8 Bundesliga Bor. Mönchengladbach
76 Butragueño 171,42 22-Jan-95 52,3 Primera Division Real Madrid
77 Miroslav Đukić 171,37 01-Jun-03 49,7 Primera Division Valencia CF
78 Johan Neeskens 171,28 18-Mai-85 64,2 Eredivisie FC Groningen
79 Hierro 171,08 15-Mai-05 47,6 Championship Bolton Wanderers
80 Gilberto Silva 171,08 08-Dez-13 39,1 Serie A Atletico Mineiro
81 Ruud Gullit 171,03 28-Jan-98 53,2 Premier League Chelsea FC
82 Celestine Babayaro 170,96 31-Mrz-07 37,2 Premier League Newcastle United
83 Frans Thijssen 170,87 16-Jun-91 63,8 Eredivisie Vitesse
84 Wolfgang Overath 170,76 28-Mai-77 72,1 Bundesliga 1. FC Köln
85 Jan Heintze 170,53 25-Mai-03 52,3 Eredivisie PSV Eindhoven
86 Patrick Vieira 170,49 14-Mai-11 39,3 Premier League Manchester City
87 Artur Ullrich 170,45 26-Mai-90 58,1 3. Liga Hansa Rostock
88 Carsten Jancker 170,43 31-Mai-09 41,2 Bundesliga SV Mattersburg
89 Maguregui 170,4 26-Apr-64 81,7 Primera Division Espanyol Barcelona
90 Chris Sutton 170,4 23-Dez-06 42,7 Premier League Aston Villa
91 Iriondo 170,19 10-Apr-55 97,0 Primera Division Real Sociedad
92 Alan Thompson 170,18 06-Mai-07 41,8 Championship Leeds United
93 Norman Hunter 170,17 05-Mai-79 72,0 Championship Bristol City
94 Ferran Olivella 169,85 21-Mai-69 79,3 Primera Division FC Barcelona
95 Gerd Müller 169,82 10-Feb-79 70,0 Bundesliga Bayern München
96 Filippo Inzaghi 169,8 13-Mai-12 42,3 Serie A AC Milan
97 Johann Vogel 169,8 19-Feb-12 38,7 Super League Grasshoppers Zürich
98 Andreas Hinkel 169,65 05-Mai-12 33,6 2. Bundesliga SC Freiburg
99 Gert Verheyen 169,54 05-Mai-06 45,1 Eerste klasse Club Brugge KV
100 Franz Beckenbauer 169,48 29-Mai-82 70,2 Bundesliga Hamburger SV