Samstag, 27. September 2014

FC Schalke 04 - Borussia Dortmund: Goalimpact of Lineups

Dortmund has a much better starting XI, but the home field advantage gives Schalke a slight edge. Still, the probability of an draw is rather high. This is in contrast to the betting markets that see Dortmund as a 50% favorite.

It maybe is also a function of the much better bench of Dortmund. With Schmelzer, Kagawa and Jojic, they have three additional 110+ players to bring into play. Schalke only has Kaan Ayhan.

Odds based on starting XI: FC Schalke 04: 43.4% (Home), draw: 30.1%, Borussia Dortmund: 26.6%

FC Schalke 04

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Dennis Aogo95.099.827.7Deutschland29923585
Sidney Sam121.5123.226.6Deutschland25017064
Joel Matip113.2121.323.1Kamerun22318325
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar140.9157.731.1Niederlande44235383
Marco Höger113.3115.724.914911695
Atsuto Uchida117.1118.426.4Japan23320211
Roman Neustädter129.8131.326.526421690
Ralf Fährmann101.1117.325.911810921
Maxim Choupo-Moting98.199.425.4Kamerun19511581
Kevin Prince Boateng106.8111.227.5Ghana29421404
Max Meyer107.8143.818.9Deutschland [U19]936314
Average113.1121.725.8
Bench
Chinedu Obasi108.8114.928.3Nigeria16110922
Tranquillo Barnetta109.8116.829.3Schweiz34724404
Marcel Sobottka91.3113.220.3968515
Christian Wetklo98.298.534.718316799
Christian Clemens98.7106.823.1Deutschland [U21]16811712
Christian Fuchs105.6111.828.4Österreich38131156
Kaan Ayhan116.7142.919.8Türkei [U21]927718
Average104.2115.026.3


Borussia Dortmund

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Sven Bender122.0123.425.3Deutschland25517719
?ukasz Piszczek131.0138.029.3Polen27021691
Erik Durm105.1116.222.3Deutschland [U21]1249634
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang109.9111.725.2Gabun24017009
Matthias Ginter107.2127.620.6Deutschland [U21]13211967
Roman Weidenfeller142.5143.234.141538371
Adrián Ramos107.8114.228.6Kolumbien22117924
Kevin Großkreutz133.9134.226.1Deutschland [U21]31624589
Mats Hummels157.4158.025.7Deutschland30326560
Ciro Immobile105.2108.524.5Italien1439987
Neven Suboti?151.0151.625.8Serbien28626346
Average124.8129.726.1
Bench
Joseph-Claude Gyau97.2109.721.9966261
Shinji Kagawa122.2123.425.5Japan17112794
Sokratis Papastathopoulos106.7107.426.3Griechenland25320876
Marcel Schmelzer141.9143.726.6Deutschland25121777
Mitsuru Maruoka78.0117.418.7171105
Mitchell Langerak109.9125.226.0605432
Miloš Jojic110.7121.222.4Serbien [U21]764965
Average109.5121.123.9


Donnerstag, 18. September 2014

Everton FC vs VfL Wolfsburg: Lineups

The starting XIs are about equal if only a slight advantage for Wolfsburg. But the home field advantage fives Everton the edge,

Everton FC: 48.9%
Draw: 28.9%
VfL Wolfsburg: 22.3%

Everton FC

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Steven Naismith105.7111.428.0Schottland31521461
Romelu Lukaku106.9123.221.3Belgien20313638
Tim Howard149.8150.935.5USA48244950
Seamus Coleman108.9109.126.1Irland17614190
Gareth Barry115.4147.833.5England66057055
James McCarthy92.397.623.8Irland22919746
Kevin Mirallas114.8117.526.9Belgien32820358
Aiden McGeady111.8118.028.4Irland36726695
Leighton Baines112.6120.029.8England45439678
John Stones100.4122.920.3England [U21]644996
Phil Jagielka111.6136.832.0England50345209
Average111.8123.227.8
Bench
Christian Atsu104.3114.022.7Ghana1006620
Leon Osman93.1124.433.3England40732451
Darron Gibson107.4109.926.8Irland1389281
Antolín Alcaraz91.6117.132.1Paraguay20518477
Muhamed Bešic110.3122.722.0Bosnien-Herzegowina12710964
Joel97.3128.024.2413807
Samuel Eto'o128.7160.933.5Kamerun63353374
Average104.7125.327.8


VfL Wolfsburg

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Ivica Olic99.8143.535.0Kroatien35624016
Kevin De Bruyne107.1114.823.2Belgien18614173
Sebastian Jung122.7126.824.2Deutschland [U21]24521984
Diego Benaglio116.4119.431.0Schweiz34932271
Daniel Caligiuri111.3113.126.720013303
Luiz Gustavo137.3140.627.1Brasilien25420097
Naldo115.2139.932.0Brasilien33229967
Maximilian Arnold113.2135.620.3Deutschland [U21]1129335
Ricardo Rodríguez105.5117.722.0Schweiz14812843
Robin Knoche119.6130.822.3Deutschland [U21]16214083
Junior Malanda98.6122.520.0Belgien [U21]816488
Average113.3127.725.8
Bench
Nicklas Bendtner124.8126.626.7Dänemark29618325
Josuha Guilavogui109.1113.823.9Frankreich1339784
Timm Klose107.0107.926.3Schweiz14112040
Aaron Hunt98.0103.828.0Deutschland [U21]33223463
Max Grün111.4118.127.411911065
Marcel Schäfer99.5109.230.3Deutschland36130493
Mateusz Klich98.0102.024.3Polen1269787
Average106.8111.626.7



Partizan Belgrad vs Tottenham Hotspur

Tottemham has the better starting XI, but due to the home field advantage Partizan is expected to win.

Partizan: 46.9%
Draw: 29.4%
Tottenham Hotspur: 23.8%

Partizan

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Miroslav Vulicevic125.9132.929.319217479
Vojislav Stankovic118.0120.826.9998175
Milan Lukac111.0116.128.91059707
Lazar Cirkovic93.7105.822.0Serbien [U21]504269
Nikola Drincic87.094.630.0Montenegro21018261
Vladimir Volkov116.4122.528.3Montenegro1179461
Danilo Pantic88.1134.617.8Serbien [U19]21774
Branko Ilic96.8118.031.6Slowenien1078684
Petar Grbic102.1102.326.1Montenegro633536
Danko Lazovic112.0130.931.3Serbien34921788
Saša Ilic88.6151.236.7Serbien35024348
Average103.6120.928.1
Bench
Filip Kljaji?86.3118.324.1585334
Andrija Živkovi?101.0146.418.2Serbien [U19]382583
Nemanja Petrovi?105.4116.222.3Serbien [U21]181323
Nikola Ninkovi?105.6132.919.7Serbien [U21]743918
Ismael Fofana102.4102.426.0231381
Predrag Luka105.0105.826.314310397
Saša Markovi?106.1112.623.5Serbien [U21]1197826
Average101.7119.222.9


Tottenham Hotspur

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Paulinho108.7109.026.1Brasilien17814143
Ben Davies96.9112.921.3Wales978409
Federico Fazio112.6116.927.5Argentinien Olymp.20816927
Kyle Naughton107.1107.525.8England [U21]22118966
Aaron Lennon113.5117.527.4England40729857
Jan Vertonghen143.6147.627.3Belgien35231315
Hugo Lloris124.0130.427.7Frankreich38435541
Harry Kane102.4119.921.1England [U21]1106335
Andros Townsend96.9104.723.2England15810437
Nabil Bentaleb94.5121.119.8Algerien362653
Benjamin Stambouli96.8101.224.1Frankreich [U21]1249186
Average108.8117.224.7
Bench
Étienne Capoue110.7111.126.2Frankreich21318317
Erik Lamela95.1105.422.5Argentinien1309618
Vlad Chiriches116.9119.624.8Rumänien15413386
Christian Eriksen128.5138.622.6Dänemark21216421
Eric Dier104.0124.320.7England [U21]594589
Soldado114.6121.629.3Spanien31322173
Michel Vorm110.1113.230.8Niederlande27024769
Average111.4119.125.3



Mittwoch, 17. September 2014

Chelsea FC vs FC Schalke 04 Lineups

Odds based on starting XI: Chelsea FC: 58.9%, draw: 25.5%, FC Schalke 04: 15.6%

Chelsea FC

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Nemanja Matic119.3119.526.1Serbien14611585
Cesc Fàbregas182.3186.127.3Spanien50938297
Thibaut Courtois124.1173.322.3Belgien21620110
Filipe Luís125.1131.929.1Brasilien30926787
Branislav Ivanovic121.3133.530.5Serbien36732183
Gary Cahill106.4112.828.7England35332138
Eden Hazard132.1137.923.7Belgien31623070
John Terry163.9197.433.8England67060090
Willian137.6137.826.1Brasilien28420677
Didier Drogba106.4166.436.5Elfenbeinküste55142958
Ramires123.6127.827.4Brasilien34827865
Average131.1147.728.3
Bench
John Mikel109.6113.627.3Nigeria35525873
Loïc Remy96.6101.527.7Frankreich25118373
Azpilicueta121.7123.925.0Spanien29225421
Kurt Zouma98.7124.419.8Frankreich [U21]836713
Diego Costa113.5113.825.9Spanien23617862
Oscar122.3130.823.0Brasilien20914612
Petr Cech185.3187.432.3Tschechien63759215
Average121.1127.925.9


FC Schalke 04

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Dennis Aogo95.099.827.7Deutschland29923585
Roman Neustädter129.8131.326.526421690
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar140.9157.731.1Niederlande44235383
Julian Draxler120.0138.420.9Deutschland17411562
Kaan Ayhan116.7142.919.8Türkei [U21]927718
Marco Höger113.3115.724.914911695
Christian Fuchs105.6111.828.4Österreich38131156
Ralf Fährmann101.1117.325.911810921
Sidney Sam121.5123.226.6Deutschland25017064
Kevin Prince Boateng106.8111.227.5Ghana29421404
Max Meyer107.8143.818.9Deutschland [U19]936314
Average114.4126.625.3
Bench
Chinedu Obasi108.8114.928.3Nigeria16110922
Donis Avdijaj80.8127.618.0311722
Marvin Friedrich100.4139.118.8Deutschland [U19]695940
Christian Wetklo98.298.534.718316799
Christian Clemens98.7106.823.1Deutschland [U21]16811712
Tranquillo Barnetta109.8116.829.3Schweiz34724404
Maxim Choupo-Moting98.199.425.4Kamerun19511581
Average99.3114.725.4




Bayern München vs Manchester City: Goalimpact of Lineups

Odds based on starting XI: Bayern München: 57.8%, draw: 26.0%, Manchester City: 16.3%

Bayern München

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Mehdi Benatia114.3118.327.4Marokko20317894
Jérôme Boateng146.3146.426.0Deutschland34628081
Rafinha128.6135.329.0Brasilien Olymp.34028680
Juan Bernat104.5119.621.5Spanien [U21]896067
Mario Götze148.0159.322.3Deutschland20914303
Philipp Lahm195.1209.730.8Deutschland58952739
Thomas Müller173.9176.325.0Deutschland36128621
David Alaba131.2142.722.2Österreich24820370
Xabi Alonso168.4197.132.8Spanien63351994
Robert Lewandowski143.9144.026.0Polen28622881
Manuel Neuer192.3197.928.4Deutschland41438780
Average149.7158.826.5
Bench
Pepe Reina171.7173.932.0Spanien62658177
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg105.0139.619.1Dänemark [U21]735245
Sebastian Rode105.5110.423.9Deutschland [U21]15212334
Xherdan Shaqiri129.8138.622.9Schweiz21614157
Arjen Robben152.6165.530.6Niederlande50036977
Dante133.1148.330.8Brasilien31728315
Claudio Pizarro103.8156.435.9Peru61144455
Average128.8147.527.9


Manchester City

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Yaya Touré127.6146.631.3Elfenbeinküste44737675
Samir Nasri126.1129.527.2Frankreich43831607
Jesús Navas133.0139.528.8Spanien44035373
Edin Džeko132.8139.128.5Bosnien-Herzegowina35226273
Vincent Kompany143.8149.928.4Belgien42937503
Gaël Clichy154.1161.029.1Frankreich38432518
Joe Hart143.3150.027.3England33931608
David Silva135.3141.728.7Spanien42432910
Bacary Sagna130.1151.131.6Frankreich42237675
Martín Demichelis116.9150.233.7Argentinien46038489
Fernandinho141.5148.529.3Brasilien27122316
Average135.0146.129.4
Bench
Frank Lampard124.5180.636.2England87674878
Dedryk Boyata94.7100.123.8Belgien [U21]644555
Kun Agüero144.8145.526.3Argentinien45133335
Willy Caballero106.2107.732.926123883
James Milner117.0123.528.7England52237463
Eliaquim Mangala120.8127.023.6Frankreich [U21]17814784
Aleksandar Kolarov105.8112.328.8Serbien26520051
Average116.3128.128.6




Samstag, 30. August 2014

FC Schalke 04 - Bayern München: Goalimpact of Lineups

Odds based on starting XI: FC Schalke 04: 29.9% (Home), draw: 30.6%, Bayern München: 39.5%

FC Schalke 04

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Sidney Sam122.6124.026.5Deutschland24716833
Felipe Santana109.1115.128.417612758
Kaan Ayhan116.2143.119.8Türkei [U21]907549
Benedikt Höwedes126.7127.926.4Deutschland28524341
Ralf Fährmann101.2117.825.811510642
Max Meyer107.8144.218.8Deutschland [U19]906149
Jan Kirchhoff115.8120.623.8Deutschland [U21]14711049
Marco Höger113.4115.724.914711509
Julian Draxler119.8138.320.8Deutschland17111355
Maxim Choupo-Moting98.499.725.3Kamerun19211302
Joel Matip113.3121.323.0Kamerun22018046
Average113.1124.324.0
Bench
Tranquillo Barnetta110.4117.129.2Schweiz34624387
Christian Clemens98.7106.723.0Deutschland [U21]16611664
Chinedu Obasi109.0114.828.2Nigeria16110922
Christian Wetklo98.398.634.618316799
Roman Neustädter129.9131.226.426121451
Dennis Aogo95.199.527.6Deutschland29823568
Christian Fuchs105.9111.928.3Österreich37931067
Average106.8111.428.2


Bayern München

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Xherdan Shaqiri130.1138.822.8Schweiz21213884
Xabi Alonso170.3198.032.7Spanien63051740
Holger Badstuber128.3130.924.8Deutschland23921340
Mario Götze147.7158.722.2Deutschland20514057
Philipp Lahm195.9209.530.8Deutschland58552427
Thomas Müller173.5175.924.9Deutschland35728296
Sebastian Rode106.9111.823.8Deutschland [U21]14812119
David Alaba131.6142.922.1Österreich24419998
Robert Lewandowski144.0144.125.9Polen28222524
Jérôme Boateng145.9146.125.9Deutschland34327835
Manuel Neuer191.4197.128.3Deutschland41038408
Average151.4159.425.8
Bench
Gianluca Gaudino67.0114.717.8271931
Dante133.6147.830.8Brasilien31328034
Pepe Reina171.2173.331.9Spanien62658177
Juan Bernat105.1120.321.4Spanien [U21]855752
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg105.1140.119.0Dänemark [U21]705158
Julian Green101.9135.119.2USA564300
Claudio Pizarro103.9155.435.8Peru61044418
Average112.5141.025.1



Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim: Goalimpact of Lineups

Hoffenheim is the better team, but his is overcompensated by the home field advantage. Goalimpact is more optimistic then the betting markets when it comes to Werder's chances to keep a point or three at home. The odds do not reflect Hoffenheims better bench though and might be a bit optimistic.

Werder Bremen: 42.7%
Draw: 30.2%
1899 Hoffenheim: 27.1%

Werder Bremen

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Izet Hajrovic97.0104.923.0Bosnien-Herzegowina1167117
Assani Lukimya99.6105.828.524119838
Sebastian Prödl94.797.827.1Österreich22318655
Santiago García93.493.626.11028780
Raphael Wolf81.895.926.216515275
Eljero Elia90.094.227.5Niederlande29819341
Davie Selke92.9121.919.5Deutschland [U19]715057
Clemens Fritz89.6122.133.7Deutschland41334372
Gálvez99.6101.425.2746359
Franco Di Santo85.987.425.3Argentinien1769534
Zlatko Junuzovi?93.095.426.8Österreich34529159
Average92.5101.926.3
Bench
Fin Bartels91.395.527.526120034
Felix Kroos101.9108.423.416811315
Cédric Makiadi87.398.530.4DR Kongo30823742
Marnon Busch94.3122.019.7665694
Nils Petersen101.9102.725.7Deutschland [U19]22314514
Raif Husic68.4170.518.5343162
Luca Caldirola93.9100.023.5Italien [U21]12010735
Average91.3113.924.1


1899 Hoffenheim

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Niklas Süle88.9124.818.9Deutschland [U17]877242
Ádám Szalai112.4114.326.7Ungarn17511587
Ermin Bi?ak?i?110.7113.824.5Bosnien-Herzegowina16114522
Kevin Volland104.7116.322.0Deutschland [U21]17714470
Tarik Elyounoussi102.8104.126.4Norwegen19814356
Sebastian Rudy108.1111.524.4Deutschland [U21]21116340
Roberto Firmino103.0111.622.81179199
Tobias Strobl108.3112.124.318214700
Eugen Polanski99.4105.528.4Polen23717984
Andreas Beck112.2116.227.4Deutschland28024563
Oliver Baumann109.1139.424.2Deutschland [U21]21720197
Average105.4115.424.5
Bench
Sven Schipplock105.7106.325.819811052
Sejad Salihovi?113.4120.729.8Bosnien-Herzegowina33126151
David Abraham119.4125.228.125722493
Jens Grahl127.4143.925.813012074
Kai Herdling116.2124.530.126118887
Jannik Vestergaard111.4123.122.0Dänemark [U21]1159739
Anthony Modeste81.882.626.3Frankreich [U21]21613882
Average110.8118.026.8