Sonntag, 20. Juli 2014

RB Salzburg - Rapid Wien 6:1

Red Bull Salzburg takes the pole position in the Austrian Bundesliga right from the start and, frankly, is unlikely to ever lose it again. Even the second team in the league, Rapid Wien, is no match to Salzburg's exquisite offensive and defensive power that would without problem be very competitive in the German Bundesliga, too.

The odds based on starting XI were RB Salzburg: 59.4%, draw: 25.3%, Rapid Wien: 15.3%. It would be even stronger biased towards Salzburg if the best players would form the starting XI. However, Adolf Hütter chose to play with Schiemer that turned out to be the weak link in the defense. He was replaced by Ramalho in minute 55.

That some of the Salzburg players aren't even playing for their respective national teams seems odd and indicates a bias of football pundits against the Austrian league. Due to some technical reasons, the league may be a bit overrated in our algorithm a few points, but even if you'd subtract 10 points from all Schwegler, you'd still expect him to play for Switzerland.

RB Salzburg

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Péter Gulácsi119.9119.924.2Ungarn [U21]1079664
Christian Schwegler138.7145.130.127224169
Franz Schiemer111.5116.928.3Österreich26221968
Andreas Ulmer140.9146.428.7Österreich25422594
Martin Hinteregger132.9149.721.8Österreich [U21]15913243
Stefan Ilsanker134.4137.325.1Österreich [U21]23118078
Christoph Leitgeb122.1127.829.3Österreich31225285
Kevin Kampl139.2146.923.8Slowenien20617407
Sadio Mané128.2142.622.3Senegal1108739
Jonathan Soriano129.4135.028.820113914
Alan133.4136.725.01609158
Average130.1136.826.1
Bench
Peter Ankersen108.3115.823.8Dänemark816917
André Ramalho138.1151.822.31109886
Marcel Sabitzer96.1124.920.3Österreich15811560
Alexander Walke105.7105.731.1Deutschland [U20]32029642
Naby Keita81.2120.019.4231917
Valentino Lazaro75.7128.918.3Österreich [U17]271391
Massimo Bruno104.5129.420.8Belgien [U21]946219
Average101.4125.222.3


Rapid Wien

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeLast National TeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Ján Novota110.7110.730.6686320
Thomas Schrammel115.9118.126.820918424
Mario Sonnleitner114.1118.727.8Österreich [U21]33430329
Christopher Dibon121.2129.223.7Österreich [U21]19016972
Maximilian Hofmann109.3133.320.9524430
Thanos Petsos108.0118.623.1Griechenland [U21]15310968
Stefan Schwab94.5102.123.8Österreich [U21]17513638
Louis Schaub103.7141.119.5Österreich [U21]1026562
Steffen Hofmann111.4143.333.844037150
Lukas Grozurek116.2129.222.5Österreich [U21]1679168
Deni Alar104.5109.524.4Österreich [U21]19811359
Average110.0123.125.2
Bench
Philipp Schobesberger109.2137.820.3947119
Dominik Wydra102.9131.720.3Österreich [U19]936865
Robert Beric111.2121.923.0Slowenien [U21]1088402
Marko Maric90.390.318.5Kroatien [U17]242185
Brian Behrendt117.2129.522.712610159
Mario Pavelic104.7129.620.8Österreich [U19]725840
Stefan Stangl95.5107.822.713911819
Average104.4121.221.2






Donnerstag, 17. Juli 2014

Predicting Future National Teams

Our prediction on the German national team that will play in Russia 2018 four years from now, caused some discussions. Some were finding the selections great, some were missing some players that are currently sure bets to be included such as Marco Reus.

Predicting a team in four years time is a terribly hard thing to do. Even predicting the development of a single player isn't easy at all. Predicting the development of all players of a country and selecting the best XI in four years from now is a job only fouls can take on. In order to get some feeling on the general quality of our forecast, Simon Gleave suggested to roll back in time and predict the German national team for the 2014 World Cup back in 2010.

The 2010 Team

We think that is a brilliant idea. But before we do that, let's get our mindset right back to those times by looking at the 2010 World Cup team. The first XI back is marked green in the following table

Player Minutes Games Starting XI
Arne Friedrich 630' 7 7
Sami Khedira 609' 7 7
Per Mertesacker 630' 7 7
Mesut Özil 587' 7 7
Bastian Schweinsteiger 621' 7 7
Philipp Lahm 540' 6 6
Thomas Müller 474' 6 6
Manuel Neuer 540' 6 6
Lukas Podolski 531' 6 6
Jérôme Boateng 376' 5 5
Miroslav Klose 357' 5 5
Cacau 205' 4 2
Mario Gómez 56' 4 -
Marcell Jansen 154' 4 1
Toni Kroos 59' 4 -
Piotr Trochowski 108' 4 1
Holger Badstuber 167' 2 2
Stefan Kießling 24' 2 -
Marko Marin 29' 2 -
Dennis Aogo 90' 1 1
Hans Jörg Butt 90' 1 1
Serdar Taşçı - 1 -
Tim Wiese - - -

Appart from Arne Friedrich and Lukas Podolski those players were still key players in the 2014 team. Podolski was among the 23 players but got only 54mins of playing time.

The other players in that team were either talents (marked orange) or regular substitutes. From those 12 players only Cacau can be considered as too old to be expected to play in 2014 again. Everybody else could, but only Kroos did. That said, it is a fair guess that Gomez and Badstuber would have been part of the 23 at least if it wasn't for his injuries. That leaves a hit rate of at best 3 out of the 11 young additional players if you take the old squad as best guess for the next World Cups team.

The Predicted 2014 Team

Ok here is our prediction of the 2014 team that we would have given to you if asked in Summer 2010 before the World Cup started. We leave out goalkeepers as we do not have an aging curve for them and hence can't really make predictions.

Here are the defenders. We put our picks for three center-backs plus Philip Lahm on the top as estimate for the standard defense as Löw played like this in 2014 (which we obviously wouldn't know back in 2010).

Defender Peak Team Age@2014 Goalimpact@2014
Per Mertesacker 139.0 Werder Bremen 29.8 133.1
Mats Hummels 131.3 Borussia Dortmund 25.5 129.7
Holger Badstuber 131.5 Bayern München 25.3 129.5
Philipp Lahm 147.9 Bayern München 30.7 136.3
Diego Contento 135.2 Bayern München 24.2 129.4
Nico Hammann 128.5 TSV 1860 München II 26.3 127.9
Benedikt Höwedes 128.1 FC Schalke 04 26.3 127.3
Jérôme Boateng 127.5 Hamburger SV 25.8 126.9
Daniel Schwaab 140.4 Bayer Leverkusen 25.8 139.9

For the defenders, we have a lot of hits (marked green) of players that were in the 2010 team and also played in 2014. These hits we would also have, if we just make the naive guess of an unchanged team. As argued above, we maybe could also mark Badstuber green as it is save to assume that a healthy Badstuber would have been in Brazil.

But the team did change a lot and three of the predicted players that were not in the 2010 team were actually predicted correctly (marked orange). Hummels had only 1 appearance in a friendly match against Malta at that time and Höwedes was not considered in the national team before 2011 at all.

While all main 2014 defenders have been correctly predicted by Goalimpact, we have some omissions in among the midfielders.

Midfielder Peak Team Age@2014 Goalimpact@2014
Bastian Schweinsteiger 153.0 Bayern München 29.9 146.9
Thomas Müller 148.5 Bayern München 24.8 144.8
Mesut Özil 136.4 Werder Bremen 25.7 135.3
Mario Götze 145.0 Borussia Dortmund U19 22.1 130.4
Roman Neustädter 131.1 Bor. Mönchengladbach II 26.3 130.3
Patrick Herrmann 135.1 Bor. Mönchengladbach II 23.4 126.3
Jens Hegeler 127.2 FC Augsburg 26.4 126.2
Gonzalo Castro 128.6 Bayer Leverkusen 27.1 126.1

We correctly predicted Schweinsteiger, Müller and Özil to stay in the team, and we even correctly predicted that Mario Götze - back then still playing in a youth league - will be part of the 2014 team. However, we have omitted Khedira and Kroos, two integral players in 2014 World Champions that were already part of the 2010 team. Both were not trailing much. Kroos was expected to have a Goalimpact of 122.6, Khedira of 122.1.

Our addition Neustädter wasn't bad. 2012 he made his first appearance in the national team. At the time we made the prediction, he was still playing in the fourth division. His team mate at that time Herrmann now also plays Bundesliga, but so far had no game for the national team. Hegeler, back then in the 2. Liga, now regularly plays Champions League and hence is also a good call for high talent, but he also didn't make it to the N11.

Joachim Löw didn't really take classical strikers to Brazil. In Germany's tactical system, it is difficult to have a clear line between striker and offensive midfielder anyway. The only striker that earns that label in the team was all time top-scorer Miroslav Klose. Due to aging, we didn't expect him to be still on the team. We added Schürrle to this category too, because he acts very offensive minded. We could also move Müller down here, but it wouldn't really change matters.

Player Peak Team Age@2014 Goalimpact@2014
Deniz Naki 134.7 FC St. Pauli 25.0 131.6
Julian Schieber 129.6 VfB Stuttgart 25.4 127.7
Daniel Ginczek 134.9 Borussia Dortmund II 23.3 125.4
Lewis Holtby 131.4 VfL Bochum 23.8 124.1
André Schürrle 130.9 1. FSV Mainz 05 23.7 123.2

Summary

From the eleven field players that played in 6 or more games for the German national team at the World cup, we correctly predicted ten. This includes the correct prediction of Höwedes, Hummels, Schürrle and Götze that were not part of the 2010 team. We missed out one player: Kroos. Just assuming the 2010 squad, would get seven players right.

Predicting future teams is subject to a very high degree of uncertainty. Not only for algorithms, but also for the experts out in the field. Or would you have expected, that the young German Messi that played in South Africa 2010 would not be part of the 2014 team?

Dienstag, 15. Juli 2014

Russia 2018: German National Team

Source Wikipedia. Creative Commons.
The World Cup in Brazil is over. While the celebrations are still going on, it is time for Germany to start the next mission; defending the title. Some of the cup winning team from 2014 are well past their peak and are unlikely still to play in the NT 2018. We publish a list of players we think will take the places.

Goalkeeper

We do not have an aging curve yet for goal keepers, so the list of best German goalkeepers in 2018 equals the list of best German goalkeepers today. Hence no surprises, one might think. But we think that maybe not many have Ferdinand Oswald on their list of top keepers.

Player Current Team Age@2018 GI@2018 PeakGI
Manuel Neuer Bayern München 32.3 169.6 169.6
Roman Weidenfeller Borussia Dortmund 37.9 128.7 128.7
Ferdinand Oswald FC Schalke 04 II 27.8 125.0 125.0

Defenders

Only three defenders of the 2014 World Champions are expected to play 2018, too. But Lahm, Hummels and Boateng are not just any three, they were also the backbone of the team's strong defensive performance. Benedikt Höwedes is not on the list, but he wasn't on GIs 2014 list either.

Player Team Age@2018 GI@2018 PeakGI
Philipp Lahm Bayern München 34.7 156.4 195.85
Mats Hummels Borussia Dortmund 29.5 150.8 156.57
Jérôme Boateng Bayern München 29.8 144.0 149.97
Benno Schmitz Red Bull Salzburg 23.6 136.0 144.06
Marcel Schmelzer Borussia Dortmund 30.4 135.6 145.23
Vladimir Rankovic Hannover 96 25.0 134.3 137.45
Moritz Sprenger VfL Wolfsburg U19 23.3 133.2 142.38
Robin Knoche VfL Wolfsburg 26.1 133.1 133.33

Midfielders

Özil, Schweinsteiger, Kroos and Draxler sound familiar. The other names not so much. Strong midfielders are leaving the German football education center. Some already play Bundesliga, some are expected to do so soon. Update: Matthias Ottl seems to be an outlier. We don't expect him to really play in Russia, but kept him in the list for transparency reasons.

Player Team Age@2018 GI@2018 PeakGI
Mesut Özil Arsenal FC 29.7 159.1 164.99
Bastian Schweinsteiger Bayern München 33.9 156.5 188.78
Julian Brandt Bayer Leverkusen 22.2 142.2 156.48
Matthias Öttl Austria Salzburg 26.4 141.1 142.02
Toni Kroos Bayern München 28.5 139.5 144.49
Julian Draxler FC Schalke 04 24.8 137.7 141.63
Max Meyer FC Schalke 04 22.8 137.0 148.73
Federico Palacios-Martinez RB Leipzig 23.3 135.4 144.96
Marvin Friedrich FC Schalke 04 U19 22.6 134.1 146.57
Maximilian Arnold VfL Wolfsburg 24.1 133.8 139.82
Morris Schröter 1. FC Magdeburg 22.8 133.6 144.94

Forwards

We expect Müller, Götze and Schürrle to be playing four years later their next World Cup along with some new names. Lasogga was already 2014 on Löw's scouting list, but he didn't make the cut.

Player Team Age@2018 GI@2018 PeakGI
Thomas Müller Bayern München 28.8 171.8 177.05
Mario Götze Bayern München 26.1 161.5 161.71
Kevin Scheidhauer VfL Wolfsburg II 26.4 139.5 140.45
Patrick Weihrauch Bayern München II 24.3 129.0 134.23
Pierre-Michel Lasogga Hamburger SV 26.6 128.1 129.48
André Schürrle Chelsea FC 27.7 128.0 131.88

Summary

To name the players that will play in a tournament in four years time is a terribly tough job. Still we gave a shot and selected 28 players that from today's perspective have some chances. We are curious to hear your thoughts on this. We will have a look at this list every now and then to see how the players developed.

Sonntag, 13. Juli 2014

Germany vs Argentina 1:0 n.V.


Deutschland

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Manuel Neuer169.6169.628.3Bayern München40738098
Benedikt Höwedes127.9128.826.3FC Schalke 0428224031
Mats Hummels155.1156.625.5Borussia Dortmund30026297
Philipp Lahm184.4195.930.7Bayern München58152085
Jérôme Boateng149.4150.025.8Bayern München34027525
Bastian Schweinsteiger182.9188.829.9Bayern München57043814
Mesut Özil164.0165.025.7Arsenal FC40430250
Thomas Müller173.1177.124.8Bayern München35427986
Toni Kroos139.6144.524.5Bayern München30221625
Christoph Kramer109.8119.123.3Bor. Mönchengladbach18114956
Miroslav Klose115.0166.236.1Lazio Roma60545147
Average151.9160.127.4
Bench
Per Mertesacker157.5163.429.8Arsenal FC47944238
André Schürrle123.8131.923.7Chelsea FC25818809
Mario Götze146.7161.722.1Bayern München20314011
Ron-Robert Zieler105.4105.425.4Hannover 9617316172
Roman Weidenfeller128.7128.733.9Borussia Dortmund41438278
Kevin Großkreutz135.6135.725.9Borussia Dortmund31324488
Erik Durm103.8118.622.2Borussia Dortmund1209308
Matthias Ginter103.6131.120.4SC Freiburg13011781
Lukas Podolski110.4116.129.1Arsenal FC42431662
Julian Draxler116.7141.620.8FC Schalke 0417011338
Average123.2133.425.3


Argentinien

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Sergio Romero117.1117.127.3AS Monaco22820776
Ezequiel Garay132.1136.727.8SL Benfica26623903
Martín Demichelis118.7149.233.5Manchester City44737298
Marcos Rojo115.3120.924.3Sporting CP13611128
Pablo Zabaleta134.1139.829.4Manchester City41935093
Lucas Biglia131.3136.728.4Lazio Roma38632697
Enzo Pérez119.8125.228.3SL Benfica29722299
Javier Mascherano164.9171.330.1FC Barcelona46439569
Gonzalo Higuaí­n134.6136.126.6SSC Napoli36624134
Lionel Messi182.0184.727.0FC Barcelona47438762
Ezequiel Lavezzi113.5119.129.2Paris Saint-Germain38629871
Average133.0139.728.4
Bench
Fernando Gago110.3115.728.3Boca Juniors31224635
Rodrigo Palacio108.8134.132.4Inter41332023
Kun Agüero143.8144.026.1Manchester City44533062
Agustín Orión115.9115.932.9Boca Juniors31128680
Mariano Andújar96.996.930.9Calcio Catania33130675
Hugo Campagnaro89.7122.634.0Inter23519860
Federico Fernández112.5114.625.3SSC Napoli17113552
José Basanta102.7110.730.3CF Monterrey28124931
Ángel Di María147.6148.626.4Real Madrid37924985
Maxi Rodriguez97.6128.033.5Newell's Old Boys44534249
Augusto Fernández103.0108.428.3Celta Vigo26819605
Ricardo Àlvarez101.4102.026.3Inter1468268
Average110.9120.129.6


Odds based on starting XI: Deutschland: 58.8% (Home), draw: 25.6%, Argentinien: 15.6%

Odds based on starting XI: Deutschland: 28.6%, draw: 30.4%, Argentinien: 41.0% (HOME)

Odds based on starting XI: Deutschland: 43.1%, draw: 30.1%, Argentinien: 26.8% (Neutral Ground)



Samstag, 12. Juli 2014

Brazil vs Netherlands: Goalimpact of Lineups


Brazil

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Júlio César116.7116.734.8Toronto FC38535600
Thiago Silva129.3135.129.8Paris Saint-Germain27825090
David Luiz132.0135.127.2Chelsea FC26623452
Maxwell141.2168.632.8Paris Saint-Germain42034144
Maicon120.7148.432.9AS Roma41236520
Paulinho113.4113.625.9Tottenham Hotspur17313801
Oscar124.8136.522.8Chelsea FC20414181
Ramires130.2133.527.3Chelsea FC34327614
Luiz Gustavo141.7144.226.9VfL Wolfsburg25019840
Willian141.0141.425.9Chelsea FC27920448
113.4116.827.3Atletico Mineiro25217578
Average127.7135.428.5
Bench
Jefferson93.993.931.5Botafogo RJ22720944
Victor115.1115.131.4Atletico Mineiro24422712
Dani Alves177.3193.231.2FC Barcelona55147330
Marcelo150.6151.026.2Real Madrid29224355
Dante136.1148.130.7Bayern München31227941
Henrique104.9109.427.8SSC Napoli17615694
Fernandinho145.1150.829.2Manchester City26522041
Hernanes123.6129.229.1Inter31625373
Bernard101.6118.521.8Shakhtar Donetsk1027331
Hulk131.0136.227.9Zenit St. Petersburg21817909
Fred110.1122.430.8Fluminense RJ25118566
Average126.3133.428.9


Netherlands

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Jasper Cillessen114.4114.425.2AFC Ajax897960
Ron Vlaar116.5122.229.3Aston Villa24021337
Stefan de Vrij120.1133.722.4Feyenoord16313843
Bruno Martins112.9126.522.4Feyenoord13511543
Daley Blind135.1140.524.3AFC Ajax17314378
Jonathan de Guzmán108.2110.326.8Swansea City28923053
Jordy Clasie117.7128.623.0Feyenoord15913185
Georginio Wijnaldum128.8136.923.7PSV Eindhoven24619625
Robin van Persie135.7149.430.9Manchester United48233896
Arjen Robben157.8167.430.4Bayern München49636543
Dirk Kuyt128.4160.933.9Fenerbahce71256475
Average125.1135.526.6
Bench
Michel Vorm103.3103.330.7Swansea City26023975
Tim Krul97.097.026.3Newcastle United17716391
Daryl Janmaat123.3126.824.9Feyenoord18715691
Paul Verhaegh81.694.730.8FC Augsburg29726825
Joël Veltman115.2128.622.5AFC Ajax504002
Terence Kongolo98.2126.320.3Feyenoord433159
Jeremain Lens139.8141.426.6Dinamo Kiev28819897
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar136.3149.930.9FC Schalke 0441833335
Memphis Depay102.4130.520.4PSV Eindhoven996044
Average110.8122.125.9

Odds based on starting XI: Brazil: 51.1%, draw: 28.2%, Netherlands: 20.7%

In the original lineup Wesley Sneijder was ment to plaay instead of de Guzman. But he had to drop out on a muscle injury. With him, the odds would have been Brazil: 49.5%, draw: 28.7%, Netherlands: 21.8%.

Germany vs Argentina 1:0 - Goalimpact Classics

Warm-up for the world cup final. The last time Germany and Argentina met in a final was 1990. Some call the final the most one-sided final ever. Germany dominated Argentina 90 minutes. Odds based on starting XI were Germany 44.3%, draw: 29.9%, Argentina: 25.8%.

Germany

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Bodo Illgner112.2112.223.31. FC Köln14913857
Andreas Brehme126.2132.029.7Inter39835238
Jürgen Kohler113.0117.124.8Bayern München21019313
Klaus Augenthaler154.5181.432.8Bayern München52047248
Guido Buchwald139.0144.729.4VfB Stuttgart41436729
Thomas Berthold105.7106.925.7AS Roma23121047
Pierre Littbarski136.6144.330.21. FC Köln45039404
Thomas Häßler114.3120.524.11. FC Köln19515515
Lothar Matthäus154.5160.229.3Inter44840250
Rudi Völler134.2141.930.3AS Roma43037350
Jürgen Klinsmann126.2126.425.9Inter30225872
Average128.8135.227.8
Bench
Stefan Reuter125.7133.523.7Bayern München23021209
Average125.7133.523.7


Argentina

PlayerGoalimpactPeak GIAgeTeamNo. GamesNo. Minutes
Sergio Goycochea107.6107.626.7Millonarios141353
Néstor Lorenzo106.0111.424.3AS Bari292486
Roberto Sensini100.4108.223.8Udinese Calcio454145
José Serrizuela106.1111.428.03310
Óscar Ruggeri114.0119.428.4Real Madrid807327
Juan Simón102.6111.430.3Boca Juniors131210
José Basualdo104.5107.227.0VfB Stuttgart423742
Jorge Burruchaga106.7111.327.8FC Nantes222005
Diego Maradona129.2135.029.7SSC Napoli24922471
Pedro Troglio101.7105.224.9Lazio Roma604372
Gustavo Dezotti101.4102.426.4US Cremonese635045
Average107.3111.927.0
Bench
Pedro Monzón106.7112.128.3Independiente6468
Gabriel Calderón96.1105.430.4Paris Saint-Germain14212417
Average101.4108.829.4


Top-50 Football Players - July 2014 edition

There weren't that many games in June 2014 due to the World Cup. But those games that took place involved many players from the Goalimpact Top-50 list. The most striking games of the tournament is not yet reflected in the list, because it took place in July.  However, the crushing defeat of Spain by the Netherlands is reflected here. Spanish players that had significant playing time in Brazil (Ramos, Xabi, Cassillas) were downgraded. Conversely, Robben's and Sneijder's Goalimpact improved.

Chile's top performance and the qualification to the round of last 16, lifted Vidal into the best 50 players of the world. Germany's excellent performance against Brazil may come as a surprise to many, but given six of the Top20 players are now playing for that country, this puts Brazil's defeat into perspective. Especially, because Brazil chose to play without two of their four players in the Top50, Dani Alves and Helton.


Rank Player Goalimpact Age PeakGI Team Nationality Previous
Rank
GI Diff
1 Cristiano Ronaldo 196.3 29.4 202.0 Real Madrid Portugal 1 -0.6
2 Philipp Lahm 184.4 30.7 195.9 Bayern München Germany 2 -1.2
3 Bastian Schweinsteiger 182.9 29.9 188.8 Bayern München Germany 3 +0.7
4 Lionel Messi 182.0 27.0 184.7 FC Barcelona Argentina 4 +0.4
5 Cesc Fàbregas 179.5 27.2 182.5 FC Barcelona Spain 5 +0.1
6 Dani Alves 177.3 31.2 193.2 FC Barcelona Brazil 6 +0.6
7 Victor Valdés 173.7 32.5 173.7 FC Barcelona Spain 7 +0.2
8 Thomas Müller 173.1 24.8 177.1 Bayern München Germany 9 +0.6
9 Wayne Rooney 172.4 28.7 177.9 Manchester United England 8 -0.4
10 Sergio Ramos 170.6 28.3 176.0 Real Madrid Spain 10 -1.0
11 Manuel Neuer 169.6 28.3 169.6 Bayern München Germany 11 +0.3
12 Zlatan Ibrahimovic 167.2 32.8 194.1 Paris Saint-Germain Sweden 12 -0.7
13 Iker Casillas 165.2 33.1 165.2 Real Madrid Spain 13 -1.2
14 Javier Mascherano 164.9 30.1 171.3 FC Barcelona Argentina 14 +0.5
15 Mesut Özil 164.0 25.7 165.0 Arsenal FC Germany 15 +0.5
16 Xabi Alonso 161.1 32.6 187.3 Real Madrid Spain 16 -1.3
17 Petr Cech 159.3 32.1 159.3 Chelsea FC Tschechien 17 -0.0
18 Karim Benzema 158.5 26.5 159.9 Real Madrid France 18 +1.3
19 Arjen Robben 157.8 30.4 167.4 Bayern München Niederlande 21 +1.8
20 Per Mertesacker 157.5 29.8 163.4 Arsenal FC Germany 19 +0.7
21 Gaël Clichy 156.0 28.9 161.5 Manchester City France 22 -0.0
22 Piqué 155.5 27.4 159.3 FC Barcelona Spain 20 -1.1
23 Mats Hummels 155.1 25.5 156.6 Borussia Dortmund Germany 25 +0.7
24 John Terry 154.7 33.6 185.4 Chelsea FC England 24 -0.8
25 Iniesta 154.7 30.2 161.7 FC Barcelona Spain 23 -1.0
26 Busquets 152.9 25.9 153.0 FC Barcelona Spain 26 -1.3
27 Gregory van der Wiel 152.1 26.4 153.2 Paris Saint-Germain Niederlande 27 -0.1
28 Patrice Evra 151.2 33.2 179.8 Manchester United France 28 +0.0
29 Marcelo 150.6 26.2 151.0 Real Madrid Brazil 30 +0.5
30 Neven Subotic 150.5 25.6 151.9 Borussia Dortmund Serbien 31 +0.4
31 João Moutinho 150.0 27.8 154.8 AS Monaco Portugal 29 -0.7
32 Gianluigi Buffon 149.5 36.4 149.5 Juventus Italien 32 -0.5
33 Jérôme Boateng 149.4 25.8 150.0 Bayern München Germany 33 +0.5
34 Helton 148.1 36.1 148.1 FC Porto Brazil 34 -0.2
35 Ángel Di María 147.6 26.4 148.6 Real Madrid Argentina 35 -0.1
36 Mario Götze 146.7 22.1 161.7 Bayern München Germany 36 +0.0
37 Robert Lewandowski 145.8 25.8 146.2 Borussia Dortmund Polen 38 +0.3
38 Fernandinho 145.2 29.2 150.8 Manchester City Brazil 39 +0.3
39 Luis Suárez 145.0 27.4 148.9 Liverpool FC Uruguay 40 +0.6
40 Pepe Reina 144.6 31.8 144.6 SSC Napoli Spain 46 +0.8
41 Ashley Cole 144.6 33.5 175.1 Chelsea FC England 37 -1.0
42 Wesley Sneijder 144.5 30.1 150.9 Galatasaray Niederlande 50 +1.7
43 Jan Vertonghen 144.2 27.2 147.4 Tottenham Hotspur Belgien 44 +0.4
44 Marcel Schmelzer 144.1 26.4 145.2 Borussia Dortmund Germany 42 -0.0
45 Vincent Kompany 143.9 28.3 149.3 Manchester City Belgien 45 +0.1
46 Kun Agüero 143.8 26.1 144.0 Manchester City Argentina 43 -0.1
47 Scott Brown 143.3 29.0 148.9 Celtic FC Schottland 47 +0.1
48 Arturo Vidal 143.0 27.1 146.0 Juventus Chile 53 +0.7
49 Pedro 142.9 26.9 145.4 FC Barcelona Spain 41 -1.4
50 Salomon Kalou 142.7 28.9 148.3 Lille OSC Elfenbeinküste 51 +0.1




Arturo Vidal developed as expected at Bayer Levekusen.
With his move to Juve he outperformed expectations and
earned his place among the best players of the world. The
strong performance for Chile clearly didn't hurt either.
Salomon Kalou was expected to be eventually one of the best
players as early as 2004. His development was fully in line
with that early expectation. A very nice example on how
scouting works with Goalimpact.